OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT WATCH
FMSO’s newsletter using local-language media to offer international perspectives of the operational environment.
Belarus Agrees To Host Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (Left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (Right) at a joint press conference. “As a part of the response to possible threats to the military security of our country, we clearly defined and communicated the views of … Continue reading →
Russia Developing Sixth-Generation Combat Aircraft
Rendition of BAE Systems Tempest 6th generation fighter. “Currently, we are thinking about the concept of a sixth-generation aircraft, conducting search research, exchanging views with military specialists. Such an aircraft should appear sometime by 2050, but already now it is … Continue reading →
Russian Engineer Troops Gain Assault Combat Mission
Universal Armored Engineer Vehicle (UBIM) “The engineer troops are being transformed from a support role into an independent strike force capable of participating in a modern war.” In most militaries, engineer units are combat enablers (support units) for maneuver units … Continue reading →
Russia Increases Defense Spending for 2024
Early variant of the 152mm self-propelled gun 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV on parade in Moscow, 2015. The Koalitsiya-SV is set to be fielded in 2024. “It became clear that a large-scale war requires a lot of equipment. It needs to be constantly … Continue reading →
Inaction on Gaza Underscores “Arab Street’s” Presumed Powerlessness
Jordan map showing major cities as well as parts of surrounding countries. “Gaza not only exposed the failure of the Arab and Islamic regimes in its historical test, but also exposed the silent failure of their peoples, revealed their deteriorating … Continue reading →
Sudanese Leader Sees Rwandan Model for Post-Conflict Sudan
RSF-fighters-cross-Hantoub-bridge-after-the-withdrawal-of-the-Sudanese-forces-on-December-18-2023 “The war our country is experiencing today must be the last war.” On 6 January, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the leader of the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF) (a paramilitary force formerly overseen by the Government of Sudan which has … Continue reading →
Ecuador Faces Reprisals for Indirect Support to Ukraine
A Russian military Mi helicopter of the kind Ecuador was prepared to donate to Ukraine. “The decision unleashed the fury of the Kremlin, which defended the parts sold to Ecuador years ago.” Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Latin … Continue reading →
Iraqi Shia Militia Attacks Create Atmosphere of Uncertainty
Photo of Al-Nujaba Movement forces (from PMF) in the Makhul Mountains of Salah al-Din province, one kilometer from the ISIL Front, 6 July 2016. “Anxiety is rising in Iraq in general… [prompting] the faction leaders to change their tactics and … Continue reading →
Mexican Truckers Protest Rise in Cartel’s Cargo Theft
A port of entry on the U.S.-Mexico border, where most Mexican truckers are bound with their cargo. “49 assaults on cargo drivers in Mexico are recorded daily, situations that not only put their physical integrity at risk but, in some … Continue reading →
Iran Warns United States Against Attacking Ships in Red Sea
“The Story of the Behshad’s Mission for Maritime Security,” Telegram video screenshot. “Those engaging in terrorist activities against Behshad or similar vessels jeopardize international maritime routes, security, and assume global responsibility for potential future international risks.” Iran has warned the … Continue reading →
Iranians Using Black Market VPNs To Bypass Restrictions
Abolhassan Firouzabadi, secretary of Iran’s Supreme Council of Cyberspace, poses in 2018. “Surveys show that about 64 percent of [Iranian] users use VPNs.” While Iran has long sought to constrain internet access and limit the information ordinary Iranians can access, … Continue reading →
Iran Conducts Joint Exercises To Bolster Air Force
Iran’s Yasin training jet unveiled on 11 March 2023. “The Air Force has had a very good year in the field of defense diplomacy.” Iran’s Air Force traditionally lags behind its other military branches, but Iranian authorities are seeking to … Continue reading →
China Reinvigorates Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia
Kyrgyz Highway A363 towards Chinese border-Xinjiang. “China firmly supports Uzbekistan in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity, and firmly supports Uzbekistan in choosing its own development path.” China seeks to strengthen its security cooperation with Central Asian countries … Continue reading →
Uzbekistan and China Sign Strategic Partnership Agreement
Official portrait of Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev “According to Xi, the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway should be started as soon as possible and help transform Uzbekistan from a landlocked country into a country connected by land routes.” Uzbekistan conducts … Continue reading →
Sri Lanka Suspends Chinese Research Vessel Visits
Map of South Asia, India featured. “In the immediate (time frame), it means that China’s third ‘research/spy vessel’ Xiang Yang Hong 3 is not welcome in the first week of the New Year.” India has been wary of Chinese research … Continue reading →
China Claims Philippine Navy Seeks External Intervention in South China Sea
Philippine Coast Guard “China has firmly gained actual control of Second Thomas Shoal and its adjacent waters, but China and the Philippines are in a stalemate.” On 5 January, an anonymous Chinese analyst published the accompanying excerpted Chinese-language article analyzing … Continue reading →
China Increases Presence in East China Sea To Change Status Quo
The East China Sea. The pink line represents the both the regular Chinese ADIZ and the ECS ADIZ. “We can only move forward, not backward. We will never let even 1 millimeter of our territory taken.” -Xi Jinping China is … Continue reading →
Hungary Deepens Bilateral Ties With Chad
Trigger time at Flintlock 20, USAFRICOM from Stuttgart, Germany. “Prime Minister Viktor Orban has decided to deploy a military contingent to Chad for two years before March 2024 to assist the country economically, prevent illegal immigration, and help combat terrorism.” … Continue reading →
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Resolve Border Dispute
President Sadyr Zhaparov of the Kyrgyz Republic and President Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan forged a bi-lateral agreement regarding shared disputed borders, outside the CSTO framework. “Chairman of the State Committee for National Security Kamchybek Tashiev said that more than 90% … Continue reading →
India Looking to Alternative Arms Suppliers Because of Delays From Russia
The next generation M4 rifle from Swiss Arms, the Sig Sauer SG 516 is a newborn assault rifle manufactured by the SIGARMS GmbH, Switzerland. The rifle is based on an American-made Colt Defense M4 Carbine but combined with gas piston/op-rod … Continue reading →
Venezuela’s Maduro Regime Threatens Annexation of Guyanese Territory
Maduro pushed the December 3rd referendum, partially as a distraction from his abysmal poll numbers. “The Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, ordered the immediate exploration and exploitation of oil, gas and mines in the territory of Essequibo, an area in dispute with Guyana, … Continue reading →
Taliban Challenged by Uptick of Islamic State–Khorasan Province Attacks
Taliban Humvee in Kabul “The Taliban government has said that it has defeated the Daesh group and will not allow the terrorist organization to use the territory of Afghanistan to pose any threat to other countries… At the same time, … Continue reading →
Jordan Alarmed by Escalation in Syrian Smuggling Tactics
Syria map showing major cities as well as parts of surrounding countries and the Mediterranean Sea. “What were initially infiltration and smuggling attempts have evolved into full-fledged armed clashes, with the explicit objective of forcibly crossing the border by targeting … Continue reading →
FMSO’S MILITARY DIME (M-DIME) RESEARCH PROJECT
FMSO’s Military DIME (M-DIME) Research Project tracks how China and Russia employ instruments of national power to obtain military influence in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia. Within this framework, “military influence” is defined as the ability of a Benefactor country to shape or alter the attitudes, behaviors, and capabilities of actors within—and entities associated with—the armed forces of Recipient countries. The M-DIME framework identifies 12 distinct instruments of national power employed by Benefactor countries to gain military influence in Recipient countries, three for each of the DIME categories.