Author Archives: Michael Rubin

Russia and China To Help Iran Build New Airports

Posted on by
Tabriz International Airport, in northwest Iran.

Tabriz International Airport, in northwest Iran.

“In the long run, we need a number of world class international airports.”

Iran is a huge country, almost four times the size of Iraq and six times the size of the United Kingdom.  It can take eight hours or more to travel by road between Tehran and Isfahan or Isfahan to Shiraz.  In order to facilitate transport, the Iranian government has long subsidized domestic air travel.  The price of an Iran Air ticket from Tehran to its second largest city Mashhad, 560 miles away, is just $38 at the real exchange rate.  Other fares are cheaper. As such, domestic air travel is very popular among Iranians.

While the newer Imam Khomeini International Airport, in the desert between Tehran and Qom, handles most international flights, the older Mehrabad airport within Tehran’s city limit is the primary domestic hub serving the capitol. The excerpted article from pro-regime and security focused Fars News Agency examines Iranian government planning for the future of Iran’s national air transportation infrastructure and mentions completion of upgrades at Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport.  It suggests that Iran is turning to both Russia and China to upgrade existing airfields and build ostensibly new “world class international airports,” that would necessitate large runways that could also accommodate Russian and Chinese military aircraft.

Source:

“Hamkari Chin va Rusiya ba Iran baraye Sakht-e Chandin Farudgah Bayn Almelli dar Sateh Jahani (China, Russia to Help Iran Build Several World-Class International Airports),” Fars News Agency (Iranian media outlet with close ties to the Iranian defense and security apparatus), 2 February 2022. https://www.farsnews.ir/news/14001112000609/

Siavash Amir Makri today told reporters on the sidelines of a commemoration marking the anniversary of the historic return of Imam Khomeini on 1 February 1979, and the inauguration of various projects at Mehrabad Airport that Iran’s Airport Company is responsible for managing, directing, and developing 53 airports across the country…

He added: In previous years, relying on domestic production capacity and knowledge-based companies, we provided most of our equipment needs from domestic production. He continued, “Recently, we have had projects such as advanced radar, switching and navigation aid systems and runway lighting system at Ardabil airport, and have reached self-sufficiency in these fields.”

Regarding the promotion of interactions with China and Russia, he said, “Our plan in the field of airports, considering the interactions with China and Russia, will be the construction of new airports in accordance with the needs of the country in some areas.”

The chief of Iran Airports Company said, “After technical and specialized discussions, projects will aim for the next 20 to 25 years since existing airports will meet the needs of the industry for the next 15 years, but in the long run we need a number of world class international airports.”

Image Information:

Image: Tabriz International Airport, in northwest Iran.
Source: Hamshahri
https://media.hamshahrionline.ir/d/2019/03/19/4/4320141.jpg
Attribution:

Iran’s Prosecution of Arab Separatist Highlights Supposed Saudi Ties

Posted on by

“Why does the King of Saudi Arabia send an invitation to a terrorist?”

Iran has a centuries-long history of separatist movements, often backed by foreign powers, including Portugal, Great Britain, and Russia.  Many separatist movements took on an ethnic character, with various minorities—Kurds and Azeris, for example—claiming their own homelands.  Iran’s Arabs, many centered on the towns of Khorramshahr and Ahwaz, also agitated for independence beginning in the first decade of the 20th century.  Saddam Hussein sought to weaponize these sentiments during his 1980 invasion of Iran.  While Iranian Arabs did not defect to Saddam in any substantial numbers, the late Iraqi leader was correct to see the Khuzistan region as rife with discontent.  Iranian Arabs not only chafe at overt discrimination, but also resent the fact that Tehran redistributes Khuzistan’s oil wealth outside the province while Khuzistan remains underdeveloped compared to the rest of Iran.

It is against this backdrop that the Iranian government is particularly sensitive toward ethnic separatist movements in Khuzistan.  The excerpted article by Iran’s official state broadcaster, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, details an investigation into alleged Ahwazi terrorist Habib Asyud (a.k.a. Habib Chaab or Habib Farajullah).  Asyud had lived in Sweden for 14 years but, in October 2020, Iranian intelligence lured him to Turkey and kidnapped him to Iran, where he stands trial for “spreading corruption on earth,” a catch-all capital offense that the Iranian government uses to execute captured oppositionists.

Asyud is openly separatist.  In Sweden, he founded the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz (the capital of Khuzistan).  Still, it is not clear if there is any truth to Iran’s accusation that he is responsible for terrorism.  In the excerpted article, the prosecutor reveals evidence that purports to tie Asyud to the Saudi king and suggests that the Saudi King himself directed Arab Struggle Movement attacks on Iranian civilians.  Iranian hardliners will likely use such accusations to undercut any efforts for rapprochement with Saudi Arabia.  Elsewhere, the prosecutor suggests that Asyud also has ties to former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service.

The prosecutor also accused Asyud of bombings in Dizful and Abadan, pipeline attacks, and the bombings of various government offices in Ahvaz, suggesting that the Arab Struggle Movement, under the name Harakat al-Nidal, was responsible for a 2018 attack on an Iranian military parade in Ahvaz that killed 30 and injured 70.  The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack.

Iranian trials are not free and fair and the excerpted reports of the trial make it appear to be a show trial.  While Asyud also holds Swedish citizenship, the Iranian government will likely execute him.  However, Tehran will seek to distract from accusations of Iranian-sponsored terrorism by, with false equivalence, accusing European governments of engaging in the same behavior.  Iran has already issued INTERPOL red notices for Iranian Arab dissidents in Europe and the Middle East.

Source:

“Hamkari Habib Assoud ba Servis-e Ettela’at-e Arabistan (Habib Assoud cooperates with the Saudi intelligence service),” Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (Iran’s official state broadcaster), 2 February 2022. https://www.iribnews.ir/fa/news/3351923

Amin Vaziri, the prosecutor’s representative, today unveiled documents regarding Habib Asyud’s cooperation with the Saudi intelligence service. He said, “The elements of this terrorist group went to Saudi Arabia under the guise of Hajj to carry out the plans dictated by the Saudi intelligence service. These plans included actions against innocent citizens of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The next image displayed in court showed Yaqub Nisi meeting with the king of Saudi Arabia. Yaqub Nisi was the spokesman for the terrorist group Harakat al-Nidal, which was responsible for the 4 September 2018 terrorist attack against the Armed Forces, which resulted in the martyrdom of 25 of our innocent compatriots. Can you believe he meet the top official in Saudi Arabia? Later in the court, he showed a picture of the invitation of the King of Saudi Arabia sent to Isa Mehdi al-Fakher.

In response to the display of these images, the prosecutor’s representative said, “Why does the King of Saudi Arabia send an invitation to a terrorist arrested in the Netherlands? Because the plans of the Saudi intelligence service against innocent Iranian citizens.”The prosecutor’s representative also said that Habib Asyud had been under the special support of Sweden all these years and had infiltrated associations, organizations and even charities to recruit and organize people into terrorist groups.

Iranian Authorities Arrest Alleged Deputy Leader of Royalist Terrorist Group

Posted on by
Jamshid Sharmahd, after his August 2020 arrest.

Jamshid Sharmahd, after his August 2020 arrest.

“Tondar is one of the counterrevolutionary groups in which supporters of the Pahlavi regime are active.”

While the broader Iranian population may not be revolutionary, Iranians have increasingly come out into the streets to protest government abuses and declining living standards.  Although nearly three-quarters of Iran’s current population was born after the Islamic Revolution and has no direct experience with the shah’s regime, photos of pro-monarchy graffiti and videos of pro-shah chants increasingly circulate on social media from inside Iran.

It is against this backdrop that the trial of a suspect called “Masmatos,” accused of being a member of royalist terror group “Tondar,” becomes important.  In the excerpted article from news media outlet Fars News Agency, the Iranian prosecutor announces the arrest and accuses Tondar of responsibility for the 2008 bombing of a popular Shi’ite congregation hall in Shiraz that reportedly killed 14 people and injured more than 200 others.  The article also accuses Tondar of attempted attacks ranging from a bomb plot against the Sivand Dam, trying to use “cyanide bombs” at the Tehran International Book Fair, and an explosion at the shrine of Imam Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic Revolution who died in 1989.

After the Shiraz bombing, Iranian security forces arrested two suspects, Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani and Arash Rahmanipour.  Iran accused them of royalist links and subsequently tried and executed them in 2010.  Iranian security forces claim to have arrested Tondar leader Jamshid Sharmahd in August 2020; he is still in the custody of the Iranian intelligence service.  The Iranian press identifies the mysterious “Masmatos” as the second-in-command of Tondar’s military wing and says he also had knowledge of the assassination plot against Iranian nuclear physicist Massoud Ali Mohammadi, who died in a bombing outside his home in 2010.  At the time, the Iranian government attributed that bombing alternately to Israel and to the Mujahedin al-Khalq, an organization that frequently conducts terrorism inside Iran.

The fact that the Iranian government is now seeking to reattribute past attacks to proponents of the past monarchy may reflect the government’s desire to tarnish the image of the monarchy for a new generation of Iranians.  At the same time, the fact that the late shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, the most recognizable opposition figure among Iranians, lives in the United States likely means the Iranian government will use “Tondar” to accuse the United States of being a state sponsor of terror in order to negate U.S. accusations of Iranian state terror sponsorship.

Source:

“Nafar-e Devvom Shakheh Nizami Goruhaj-e ‘Tondar’ Dastgir Shod (Number Two Person in the Military Branch of the ‘Tondar’ Gang Arrested),” Fars News Agency (news media outlet with close ties to Iran’s defense and security establishment), 2 February 2022.  https://www.farsnews.ir/news/14001113000785

… The number two member of the military branch of the Tondar [Thunder] group was arrested by anonymous soldiers of Imam al-Zaman [in this context: elite intelligence forces]. The man, identified as “Masmatos” was detained by the intelligence forces. Tondar is one of the opposition and counterrevolutionary groups in which supporters of the Pahlavi regime are active. Some experts believe this group was founded in the first decade of the 21st century or, more specifically, 2005. The more precise name of this group is the Royal Society of Iran. According to available information, Fathollah Manouchehri (also known as Foroud Fouladvand) was the leader of the group in the first years of its establishment up until 2007, after which Jamshid Shahrmad took over the group’s leadership.

On Saturday, 1 August 2020, news broke that the Ministry of Intelligence had arrested Jamshid Shahrmad, the leader of the Tondar terrorist group. Tondar was responsible for many crimes, such as the bombing of the Sayyid al-Shohada Hosseiniyah in Shiraz, a bloody incident in which many innocent people were martyred, as well as the attempt to blow up the Sivand dam in Shiraz. Masmatos was also the first person to publish the news of the assassination of nuclear scientist Martyr Ali Mohammadi.

Image Information:

Image: Jamshid Sharmahd, after his August 2020 arrest.
Source: Islamic Republic News Agency,  https://img9.irna.ir/d/r2/2020/08/02/4/157271087.jpg
Attribution:

Iran Busts Weapons and Ammunition Smuggling Ring

Posted on by

“Two heavy shipments of weapons…were discovered.”

Iran has long had difficulty controlling illicit weaponry within its borders.  At the conclusion of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War, there was little if any organized demobilization or disarmament: conscripts simply returned home, often with their weapons.  Over subsequent years, successive Iranian administrations offered amnesties to enable citizens to return weapons without penalty as gun ownership and possession is, in most cases, a crime.  The fact that they have had to do so repeatedly suggests the ineffectiveness of their efforts.

Beyond the war-related and unaccounted for arms making their way into the public domain, Iran has long faced weapons smuggling from neighboring states.  The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has found it difficult to operate in southeastern and northwestern Iran, two regions populated both by ethnic and sectarian minorities and with borders drawn through inhospitable terrain.  The conflicts and drug trade in both Afghanistan and Iraq have increased arms smuggling opportunities in these border areas.  The excerpted article from Iran news media outlet Fars New Agency suggests Iran faces a problem with loose weapons in Khuzestan, the oil-producing region of Iran at the top of the Persian Gulf and adjacent to southern Iraq.  It relates successful operations against two alleged arms smuggling operations in the refinery city of Ahvaz and Karun county in Khuzestan Province, where authorities seized 87 illegal weapons.

While the excerpted article alludes to smugglers’ efforts to create “instability” in Iran, the article does not address possible motives nor possible connections to active terror cells in the area (See: “Iranian Government Details Ahvaz Terrorist Incidents,” OE Watch, November 2018).  It is unclear if the weapons stay in Khuzestan or are smuggled deeper into Iran.  If the former, it could suggest a vulnerability that unknown cells are smuggling weapons into Iran’s chief oil-producing region that is responsible for the majority of Iran’s foreign currency earnings.  The weapons in the photograph accompanying the story appear to be short-barreled shotguns commonly designated as riot, as well as breaching or tactical shotguns not designed or intended for hunting or other more pedestrian uses.

Source:

“Anhedam Do Band-e Qacheq-e Salah va Mohemat dar Khuzestan (Destruction of Two Arms and Ammunition Smuggling Gangs in Khuzestan),” Fars News Agency (media outlet close to the Islamic Republic’s security forces), 3 January 2022. https://www.farsnews.ir/khuzestan/news/14001013000043

According to the Fars News Agency in Ahvaz, the Khuzestan police commander issued a statement announcing: Police intelligence and security officers in the province, by means of superior intelligence, learned that two smuggling gangs had entered the cities of Ahvaz and Karun with the aim of creating insecurity in the country, conducted an operation, identified and destroyed them. In these comprehensive operations, two heavy shipments of weapons, including 87 weapons of war and hunting, and a significant amount of ammunition were discovered.

Iran’s Purported Counter-Hijacking Record

Posted on by
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps counter-hijacking drills, January 2017.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps counter-hijacking drills, January 2017.

“This statistic indicates a 100 percent success rate of the IRGC operations.”

Since 1984, the U.S. State Department has classified Iran as a leading state sponsor of terrorism.  Iran not only funds proxy militias aimed at destabilizing regional states, but also sponsors many terror groups that engage in bombings, assassinations, and hijackings.  In the official Iranian regime narrative, none of this is terrorism, but rather legitimate “resistance,” which Iranian diplomats argue it is their right to support.  Here, the Iranian government simply takes advantage of the absence of any international consensus definition about what constitutes terrorism.

Post-revolutionary Iran has also experienced terrorism.  In the chaotic first years of the revolution, groups such as the Mujahedin al-Khalq conducted both assassinations and bombings targeting regime officials.  These often maimed and killed innocent civilians, however.  The excerpted article from the Iranian Defense Ministry’s press outlet, Holy Defense News Agency, provides a brief history of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-linked Aviation Protection Corps.  It reports that the Aviation Protection Corps has foiled 128 attempted hijackings over the past 34 years, more than 20 percent of which occurred in the air.  The article lacks clarity however as hijacking and terrorism was a far greater problem in Iran in the 1980s, but the statistics reported in the excerpt did not begin until 1988.  There has been very little mention of domestic hijacking attempts in Iran since then.  If there have been 128 hijacking episodes since 1988, it suggests there may be significant discord and continued attempts at domestic terrorism, even if these go unreported.   That the Aviation Protection Corps now operates on 19 airlines and in 67 airports suggests that the fear of hijacking remains a concern.

Source:

“Khansisazi 128 Mavarad Aghdam beh Havapeymarbayi Tawset Sepah (Neutralization of 128 Attempted Air Hijackings by the Revolutionary Guards),” Holy Defense News Agency (Iranian defense ministry’s press outlet), 29 December 2021. https://defapress.ir/fa/news/496930

Western countries have dubbed it the “Iron Guard”, but in Iran it is referred to as the Aviation Protection Corps. The Aviation Protection Corps is a unit that was formed in January 1988 by the order of Imam Khomeini to the then-commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Since the IRGC took over the responsibility [for aviation security], it has foiled 128 hijacking attempts. Of these, 100 episodes were cases in which the saboteurs were identified and arrested on the ground and 28 included interference and [attempted] air piracy while flying.  This statistic indicates a 100 percent success rate of the IRGC operations in dealing with hijacking. These efforts have come to fruition while the Flight Safety Unit has not given a single martyr in connection with the assigned mission, although it has suffered 77 martyrs from other reasons, such as during the Holy Defense, plane crashes and the defense of the Shrines…. Today, the Aviation Protection Corps has reached such a position due to its 33 years of experience in protecting flight safety that some countries want to have Iran’s experience in this field; the Aviation Protection Corps provides security and safety services to 19 domestic airlines at 67 airports in the country.

Image Information:

Image: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps counter-hijacking drills, January 2017.
Source: Hamshahri Online, https://media.hamshahrionline.ir/d/2021/12/30/4/4627094.jpg
Attribution:

Iran and Syria Discuss Transportation Cooperation

Posted on by

“It [is] important as well for Iran to overcome these sanctions.”

Ever since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, Syria has been Iran’s most trustworthy if not only Arab ally.  During the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War, Syria was the only Arab country to side with Iran.  Iran returned the favor during the Syrian civil war, dispatching the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in what the Iranian press described as train-and-assist missions, but which included combat resulting in IRGC casualties.  The IRGC also activated Lebanese Hezbollah units to fight on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Now that the Assad regime has largely regained control over Syria, Iran and Syria increasingly discuss how they might cooperate both in rebuilding Syria and post-conflict trade (See: “Iran and Syria Seek to Jumpstart Economic Ties,” OE Watch, 1 2022).  The excerpted selection from Iran’s official news outlet, Islamic Republic News Agency, reports from Syria on a meeting between the heads of Iranian companies soliciting business in Syria and the Syrian Transport Minister Zuhair Khazim.  The air link between Syria and Iran is not new.  IRGC owned airlines have long shuttled men and material between airports in Tehran or the nearby city of Karaj and both Damascus and Beirut.  However, the frankness with which Khazim and the Iranian businessmen discussed reviving the land route suggests confidence that Iraq will no longer pose an impediment to overland trade between Iran and Syria.  Also relevant is the open acknowledgment that both countries seek to bypass sanctions imposed by the United States and other Western countries.

Source:

“Iran va Suriya dar baraye Tawse’ah-e Hamkariha dar hawzeh-e hamal va Naqel Goftegu Kardand (Iran and Syria Discussed Transportation Cooperation),” Islamic Republic News Agency (Iran’s official news outlet), 23 December 2021.  https://www.irna.ir/news/84588042

…In a meeting with representatives of a number of Iranian companies, [Syrian] Minister of Transport Zuhair Khazim referred to the unilateral Western sanctions affecting the Syrian people, and called for the development of cooperation in the field of transportation between Syria and Iran. He considered it important as well for Iran to overcome these sanctions.

The meeting, held in Damascus, called on the Syrian Minister of Transport to define the framework for cooperation for both air and land sectors between Iran and Syria in accordance with the legal provisions and to have the relevant committees in each sector review them. According to Syrian media reports, the Iranian delegation also considered the possibility of establishing joint airlines and supporting road maintenance projects and investing in the construction of new roads and bridges in Syria…. At the end of March 2011, Syria became embroiled in a crisis backed by some of its neighboring Western-oriented Arab countries and the Zionist regime. The presence of more than 360,000 terrorists from 120 countries in various cities in Syria caused the widespread destruction of many important cities during the nearly nine years of war in this country.

Iran and Syria Seek To Jumpstart Economic Ties

Posted on by
Syrian and Iranian officials meet in Tehran, December 2021.

Syrian and Iranian officials meet in Tehran, December 2021.

“By [our] resistance, the aggressor superpowers can be humiliated.”

The relationship between Iran and Syria runs deep. Syria was the only Arab state to support Iran during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.  There is also sectarian solidarity between Syria’s ruling Assad family and Shi’ite Iran.  Syria’s minority Alawi sect, to which the Assads belong, is an offshoot of Shi’ism. The excerpted article from Iran’s newspaper of record Ettelaat, suggests that Iranian officials, if not their Syrian counterparts as well, expect to enhance their relationship in coming years.  The article quotes Ali Akbar Velayati, Iran’s foreign minister between 1981 and 1997, who has since served as the principle foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei with regard to his meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad.  Velayati is perhaps Iran’s second-most important foreign relations figure after Khamenei himself, likely wielding greater influence than current Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

Velayati highlighted joint Iran-Hezbollah-Russia assistance to Syria, and condemned the United States and other countries that have supported Syrian rebels.  The Velayati meeting was just one of many that Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad had in Tehran.  He also met with Iranian Transport and Urban Development Minister Rostam Qassemi.  Qassemi complained that the promise of fruitful bilateral economic cooperation was still unfulfilled and called on the Syrians to implement previous memorandums of understanding.  Both Velayati and Qassemi also said that both countries need to do more to expand private sector cooperation.  Mekdad, for his part, promised that Syria would welcome Iranian assistance in Syria’s reconstruction. Given the dominance of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated companies in Iran’s construction industries, any Iranian involvement in Syria’s reconstruction would likely further Tehran’s influence rather than reduce it.  This will complicate debates in the West with regard to reconstruction as many countries will be hesitant or unable to contribute to international efforts to help Syria recover if such funds go to sanctioned entities.

Source:

“Takid bar Tawse’ah ravabet-e rahbardi Iran va Suriyeh dar Didr Velayati ba Faisal Mekdad (Faisal Mekdad Meeting with Velayati Emphasized Development of Strategic Relations between Iran and Syria),” 8 December 2021. https://www.ettelaat.com/?p=595024

The Advisor to the Supreme Leader on International Affairs [Ali Akbar Velayati] met with Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad to discuss bilateral relations and international and regional issues. In addition to Ali Akbar Velayati, [Syrian] Deputy Foreign Minister Bashir Jaafari and others from his country attended the meeting which emphasized the strategic relation between the two countries. Velayati stressed the need for a special focus in order to promote and expand Iran-Syria ties, and said, “The path of resistance and confrontation with the enemies in Syria continues. The unity of the member states of the Resistance Front has led in recent years [to success] in this very sensitive region that has been coveted by the United States and Britain in the past, and shows it is possible to take effective, successful, and unprecedented measures against the continued domination of foreigners. He added, “The useful and fortuitous results of the formation of the resistance have given hope to the Islamic world that by resistance, the aggressor superpowers can be humiliated.

Velayati reminded, “What the Syrian president [Bashar al-Assad] has done with the support of Iran, Russia, Lebanese Hezbollah and most importantly the brave Syrian nation in recent years against the cowardly invasion of Syria by some 80 countries centered upon the United States, the Zionists and some reactionary countries in the region, is unique. Undoubtedly, the Resistance Front will achieve the final victory, God willing.

Image Information:

Image: Syrian and Iranian officials meet in Tehran, December 2021.
Source: Fars News Agency
https://media.farsnews.ir/Uploaded/Files/Images/1400/09/17/14000917000452_Test_PhotoN.jpg
Attribution:

Iran Agrees to Gas Swap with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan

Posted on by
Workers construct a pipeline in Iran near Azerbaijan.

Workers construct a pipeline in Iran near Azerbaijan.

“Deficits and pressure drops caused early gas outages.”

Iran has long had strained relationships with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.  On 28 November 2021, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi signed a tripartite gas swap agreement with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev and Turkmenistan President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.  The excerpted article from the Mehr News Agency, an outlet affiliated with the Islamic Ideology Dissemination Organization in turn supervised by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, details the background to the deal, the problems Iran has faced with its neighbors to the north, and the benefits Iran expects from the deal. 

Even though Turkmenistan is a Sunni country, Iran historically had regarded it as a useful trading partner to make up for gas shortfalls.  However, around 2007, Turkmenistan repeatedly moved to adjust the price of gas supplied to Iran, its long-term contract notwithstanding.  While this created some tension, Iranian officials nonetheless continued their bilateral trade until Turkmenistan cut it off due to Iran’s accrued debts.

Iranian relations with Azerbaijan are more complex.  Two-thirds of the world’s Azeris live in Iran while barely one-third live in Azerbaijan.  Azerbaijan is also largely Shi’ite, but this ethnic and sectarian overlap has only heightened suspicion.  Azerbaijan is a largely secular state and Iran is an Islamic Republic and a Shi’ite-led theocracy.  Tehran also resented Baku’s extensive relationship with Israel and suspected that Israeli agents used Azerbaijan as a launch point for operations against Iran’s nuclear program.  Tension flared in October 2021 when Iran held war games along its frontier with Azerbaijan, a move that Baku saw as an implicit threat.

Concerns aside, the recent agreement, which took effect on 22 December 2021, outlines a gas swap in which Iran would receive gas from Turkmenistan and supply an equivalent amount to the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhchivan, a territory bordering Iran but separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by Armenia.  The Iranians expect 1.5 to 2 billion cubic meters of gas to be transported annually.  Aliyev signaled that the deal could enable a sharp turn in the trajectory of relations.  “From now on, Iranian-Azerbaijani relations will develop in all areas,” he said.  He also celebrated the fact that Azerbaijan was peeling Iran away from Armenia.

The Raisi government hopes that the gas swap will help alleviate energy problems in northern Iran in time for winter.  The excerpted article suggests that low pressure and inadequate gas contributed to energy shortages.  Unmentioned in the article is that, in 2008, gas shortages combined with impassable roads due to heavy snows led to unrest in several northern provinces that took the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to quell.

Source:

“Qarardad-e Swap-e Gazi Seh Janehbeh (Tripartite Gas Swap Contract),” Mehr News Agency (affiliated with the Islamic Ideology Dissemination Organization supervised by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei), 30 November 2021. https://www.mehrnews.com/news/5363718/

…Last night, news was published that contract for gas swap with a capacity of 1.5 to 2 billion cubic meters from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan through Iran had been concluded. This important agreement was announced at a time when gas imports from Turkmenistan had long been suspended because of financial disputes and with Azerbaijan because of political disputes. In this regard, last night, Minister of Oil, Javad Owji, said, “Since December 2016 , Iran’s gas relations with Turkmenistan had been cut off, but with the conclusion of this agreement, a step forward was taken in the energy relations between the two countries….”

The most important aspect of this agreement is the restoration of relations with Turkmenistan. Iran and Turkmenistan gas relationship that began in 1996 with the conclusion of a 25-year contract. Gas imports from Turkmenistan were strongly in Iran’s favor due to the low price of that country’s gas compared to other countries. Of course, beginning around 14 years ago, Turkmenistan suddenly began to demand price increases against the opposition of Iranian officials. However, relations between Iran and Turkmenistan continued to be good until 2013, but in 2016, Turkmenistan cut off gas exports to Iran due to accumulated debts….

The most important advantage of the swap can be considered the proof of security and the country’s ability to transfer energy between two different countries. This advantage becomes even more important in relation to the relations between Iran and Azerbaijan, which have been embroiled in political disputes in recent months. It should be emphasized that Iranian gas delivered to Azerbaijan is located in the small and strategic region of Nakhchivan….

The final advantage of this contract is to solve through the right of transfer the problem of gas deficits and pressure drops in the northern provinces of Iran. In recent years, such deficits and pressure drops caused early gas outages in industries and problems in domestic consumption. In this regard, the head of the National Iranian Gas Company stated, “In addition to economic importance, this contract will help the stability of the gas network in the north and northeast of Iran.”

Image Inforrmation:

Image: Workers construct a pipeline in Iran near Azerbaijan.
Source: Fars News Agency
https://cdn.yjc.news/files/fa/news/1400/9/10/15218933_862.jpg
Attribution:

Iran-Pakistan Bolstering Naval Cooperation

Posted on by

“The combat group…promotes maritime, military, and defense ties.”

On 5 December 2021, three Pakistani ships made a port call in Bandar Abbas, Iran’s largest Persian Gulf port and the site of the headquarters of the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN), the regular military’s corollary to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Navy (IRGC-N).  The excerpted article from the Young Journalists Club, an affiliate of the state’s official Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting group, covers the three-day visit and the ceremony held upon the arrival of the three Pakistani cruisers, the second such port call in eight months.  That the IRIN rather than IRGC-N has taken the lead on the Pakistan visit does not diminish its importance.  Traditionally, the IRGC-N maintains priority of operations in the Persian Gulf where much of Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure lies.  The IRGC-N and IRIN operate alongside each other in the Strait of Hormuz, while the IRIN has taken the lead on operations in the Gulf of Oman and northern Indian Ocean.  As such, much of the interaction between the navies of the two countries would involve the IRIN.

The rhetoric surrounding the visit suggests solidarity between Pakistan and Iran with regard to the line that their navies have a greater right to operate in littoral international waters than outside powers and particularly the U.S. Navy.  As China has increased its military cooperation with Pakistan and announced a long-term economic program with Iran, it also suggests a growing anti-American alliance that plays into China’s geopolitical vision.

The visit is especially important now as it suggests a commitment to maintain strong Iran-Pakistan military ties despite a past diplomatic and military proxy war between Pakistan and Iran with regard to Afghanistan.  Unsaid in the article, however, is whether Iran is willing to sacrifice its traditionally good relationship with the Indian Navy in pursuit of stronger ties with Pakistan.  If so, this would suggest a greater regional alignment is underway that coincides with the establishment of the United States, India, Australia, Japan “Quad.”

Source:

“Navgoruh-e Razmi Niruye Daryayi Artesh-e Pakistan Varud Bandar Abbas Shod (Pakistani Naval Combat Fleet Arrived in Bandar Abbas),” 5 December 2021. https://www.yjc.news/fa/news/7988186

…This morning, commanders of the first region of the [regular] Iranian Navy and Pakistani Army and Defense Attache Brigadier-General Imran Kashif welcomed the Pakistani Navy’s combat group to Bandar Abbas, where they berthed at the docks of Islamic Republic of Iran Navy’s first naval zone. The group consists of three cruisers and is due to be in Bandar Abbas for three days…. The presence of Pakistan’s combat group in the Islamic Republic of Iran is aimed to enable bilateral meetings between naval commanders and also to promote maritime, military and defense ties between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan. Pakistan’s ambassador to Iran was also present at a welcoming ceremony for the Pakistani naval ships. Captain Qadir Vazefah, deputy commander of the first Naval Zone at Bandar Abbas, said such naval interactions definitely show that regional states are well-positioned to manage regional security, especially among friendly and brotherly Muslim countries. He continued, “There is no need for [military] units from outside the region in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, or the Gulf of Oman.” He added, “These port calls will further deepen these relationships.”