OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT WATCH
FMSO’s newsletter using local-language media to offer international perspectives of the operational environment.
Belarus Agrees To Host Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Belarus has agreed to allow Russian tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) to be deployed in the country, a decision that has led it to revise its national military doctrine. According to the first excerpted article from Russian state-managed RIA News, presidents Lukashenko and Putin confirmed the successful deployment of Russian TNWs onto Belarusian soil in December 2023. Under the agreement, Russian TNWs in Belarus would remain under Russian control. Continue reading →
Russia Developing Sixth-Generation Combat Aircraft
Russia hopes to have a sixth-generation combat aircraft prototype by 2050, according to the excerpted analysis of a report written by Evgeny Fedosov of the Russian Academy of Sciences published by state news agency TASS. Sixth-generation aircraft, still in their early phase of development, are expected to have advanced digital features like artificial intelligence (AI) integration and data fusion, as well as other enhanced command, control, and communication (C3) capabilities. Continue reading →
Russian Engineer Troops Gain Assault Combat Mission
In most militaries, engineer units are combat enablers (support units) for maneuver units (infantry, armor, etc). Due to Russia’s combat experience in Ukraine, this may be changing, as Russia is envisioning engineer units assuming a combat role, capable of accomplishing independent assault operations in addition to typical engineer missions. The accompanying excerpted article from the Russian newspaper Izvestia attributes this change to the fact that Russian troops have frequently had to assault heavily fortified areas. Continue reading →
Russia Increases Defense Spending for 2024
According to the 10 January excerpted article from the Russian state-owned domestic news outlet RIA Novosti, Russia will increase its defense spending in keeping with the release of Russia’s federal budget in October 2023 that dedicated “almost 11 trillion rubles” ($117 billion) to the armed forces. The article notes plans to grow the armed forces by nearly half a million men, while most of the funds will be earmarked for weapons and equipment, whose procurement is informed by lessons learned in Ukraine. Continue reading →
Inaction on Gaza Underscores “Arab Street’s” Presumed Powerlessness
“The Arab Street”—a broad term referring to Arab civil society sentiment—is strongly and uniformly opposed to Israeli actions in Gaza, according to several reputable opinion polls. Yet, there has been little to no domestic popular pressure on Arab governments to take meaningful steps to curtail the Israeli campaign. Continue reading →
Sudanese Leader Sees Rwandan Model for Post-Conflict Sudan
On 6 January, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the leader of the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF) (a paramilitary force formerly overseen by the Government of Sudan which has since defected), known as “Hemedti,” wrote the excerpted post in Arabic language on X (formerly Twitter) about his trip to Rwanda to meet President Kagame, and visit the Genocide Memorial Museum in Kigali. Continue reading →
Ecuador Faces Reprisals for Indirect Support to Ukraine
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Latin American and Caribbean countries have been reticent to get involved.[i] Specifically, they have resisted calls to send Russian military equipment stockpiles to support either side of the conflict. For this reason, Ecuador stood out when, following the recent declaration of an “internal armed conflict,” Spanish wire agency EFE reports that President Noboa expressed his country’s desire to Continue reading →
Iraqi Shia Militia Attacks Create Atmosphere of Uncertainty
Strikes and counterstrikes involving U.S. forces and so-called Iraqi “Islamic Resistance” factions of Shia militias may lead militant leaders to seek cover with the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) in ways that would likely strain U.S.-ISF relations. Continue reading →
Mexican Truckers Protest Rise in Cartel’s Cargo Theft
Since the beginning of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidential term in 2018, 85,000 trucks have been targeted for cargo theft by transnational criminal organizations operating in Mexico.[i] In protest, truckers organized a national strike blocking highways around the country. According to the first excerpted article in the business-focused daily El Financiero, Continue reading →
Iran Warns United States Against Attacking Ships in Red Sea
Iran has warned the United States against targeting cargo ships that the United States and others believe to be Iranian support ships feeding intelligence to Houthi rebels in Yemen. “Those engaging in terrorist activities against Behshad or similar vessels jeopardize international maritime routes, security, and assume global responsibility for potential future international risks,” Continue reading →
Iranians Using Black Market VPNs To Bypass Restrictions
While Iran has long sought to constrain internet access and limit the information ordinary Iranians can access, Iranians’ use of virtual private networks (VPNs) to bypass restrictions and regime censorship is flagrantly increasing. According to the excerpted article from Iran’s main financial newspaper Donya-e Eqtesad, almost two-thirds of Iranians now use a VPN. Continue reading →
Iran Conducts Joint Exercises To Bolster Air Force
Iran’s Air Force traditionally lags behind its other military branches, but Iranian authorities are seeking to close the gap.[i] With the end of many sanctions and growing confidence, the Iranian Air Force is engaging in “defense diplomacy” with friendly regimes to improve pilot training and overall capability. While the excerpted article from a pro-regime website Alef.ir Continue reading →
China Reinvigorates Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia
China seeks to strengthen its security cooperation with Central Asian countries to safeguard its core interests in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). According to the first excerpted article from the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, People’s Daily, Chinese President Xi Jinping met his Uzbek counterpart, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in Beijing and pledged an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” with Uzbekistan. Continue reading →
Uzbekistan and China Sign Strategic Partnership Agreement
Uzbekistan conducts bilateral cooperation across political, economic, or security spheres with several different partners, including Russia, China, and the United States, but rarely engages too closely with any one partner. Despite precedent, the accompanying excerpted article from the independent Russian-language news website Fergana Agency reports that Continue reading →
Sri Lanka Suspends Chinese Research Vessel Visits
India has been wary of Chinese research vessels docking in Sri Lankan ports and has pushed Sri Lanka to prevent these port calls. China claims the vessels are only for scientific purposes, but the Chinese ships that have docked in Sri Lanka are known to have dual scientific and intelligence-gathering purposes. The accompanying excerpted articles report Continue reading →
China Claims Philippine Navy Seeks External Intervention in South China Sea
On 5 January, an anonymous Chinese analyst published the accompanying excerpted Chinese-language article analyzing the ongoing clashes in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines. The article contends that Philippine warships were illegally resting on the Second Thomas Shoal. The author claims the Philippines was attempting to Continue reading →
China Increases Presence in East China Sea To Change Status Quo
China is reportedly deploying multiple warships near the borders of its East China Sea (ECS) air defense identification zone (ADIZ) for at least the next year. The action by the PLA Navy raises concern for nearby Japan. According to the first article excerpt published in one of Japan’s leading newspapers, Yomiuri Shimbun, Japanese sources have observed a Continue reading →
Hungary Deepens Bilateral Ties With Chad
In recent years, France, the historical European power in West Africa, has been withdrawing from the region, while Russia has been reasserting its military and political influence. Additionally, Hungary, a country with a foreign policy more aligned with Russia than other European Union (EU) countries, has begun expanding its footprint in West Africa. As the Continue reading →
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Resolve Border Dispute
The accompanying excerpted article from the independent news website Kloop reports that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan recently reached a bilateral agreement to demarcate most of their shared border separate from efforts by Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to resolve the border dispute. The CSTO is a political-military organization made up of Continue reading →
India Looking to Alternative Arms Suppliers Because of Delays From Russia
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact on the Russian defense industry’s deliveries of weapons and equipment to numerous countries, including India, is well documented. The accompanying excerpted article from the independent news website The Wire reports on a Russian-Indian joint venture failing to meet an early 2024 delivery deadline of a batch of assault rifles for India’s Armed Forces. Continue reading →
Venezuela’s Maduro Regime Threatens Annexation of Guyanese Territory
In December 2023, the Maduro regime of Venezuela oversaw a referendum about a long-disputed region called the Essequibo, which represents more than two-thirds of neighboring Guyana’s territory. The Essequibo region—roughly the size of the state of Florida—has been administered by Guyana for more than 100 years, according to an arbitral award in Paris in 1899. Continue reading →
Taliban Challenged by Uptick of Islamic State–Khorasan Province Attacks
Despite counterterrorism efforts by the Taliban, the Islamic State–Khorasan Province (IS-KP) has been responsible for a series of attacks in Afghanistan since the new year. According to the first excerpted article from Pashto-language public service news Radio Azadi, the Taliban previously stated it had defeated IS-KP; however, recent activity by the group Continue reading →
Jordan Alarmed by Escalation in Syrian Smuggling Tactics
Syria map showing major cities as well as parts of surrounding countries and the Mediterranean Sea. “What were initially infiltration and smuggling attempts have evolved into full-fledged armed clashes, with the explicit objective of forcibly crossing the border by targeting … Continue reading →
FMSO’S MILITARY DIME (M-DIME) RESEARCH PROJECT
FMSO’s Military DIME (M-DIME) Research Project tracks how China and Russia employ instruments of national power to obtain military influence in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia. Within this framework, “military influence” is defined as the ability of a Benefactor country to shape or alter the attitudes, behaviors, and capabilities of actors within—and entities associated with—the armed forces of Recipient countries. The M-DIME framework identifies 12 distinct instruments of national power employed by Benefactor countries to gain military influence in Recipient countries, three for each of the DIME categories.