North Korean leader Kim Jong Un gives a speech to the Kim Jong Un National Defense University (Oct 8, 2024).
“For the Republic of Korea, all that it needs to do in order to guarantee its security is not provoking us into using our military strength.”
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s recent policy speech to the Kim Jong Un National Defense University, published by the Korean Central News Agency, is likely intended to preview a military action by Pyongyang over the coming year. In the 8 October speech, Kim laid out his view of relations with South Korea, claiming that his regime no longer intended to reunify the south by military force but also had no interest in peaceful reunification. Kim’s speech emphasized that North and South Korea are now separate and distinct countries, and any familial bond that may have once connected them is gone.
Practically, Kim’s speech recognizes that North-South relations are at a diplomatic nadir. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s policy has been to treat North Korea as a military threat first and foremost, managed by a strong alliance with the United States and good relations with Japan. Moreover, North Korea likely realizes that it is incapable of reunifying South Korea by force of conventional arms and does not need to maintain the fiction.
Kim’s speech probably has several concurrent objectives. First, it is meant to both galvanize and alarm the mainstream political left in South Korea, who are more likely than others to perceive the two countries as unnaturally divided and express a sense of shared history and kinship. Second, if a more accommodating leader were to assume power in Seoul or Washington, Kim would be positioned to demand unilateral, upfront concessions. Third, it sets the stage for a dramatic event over the next year to change the status quo of enduring disputes. Speeches by and quotes attributed to Kim Jong Un in state media are the most authoritative the regime can issue. Such an abrupt policy change announced at a military venue is likely designed to preview some kind of military action over the next year when it will “react” to South Korean aggression in order to achieve by military force what it has not been able to achieve through diplomacy: such as monetary tribute, sanctions relief, and redrawing the de facto maritime borders. Kim’s speech implies that as its enemy, South Korea only continues to exist due to Kim Jong Un’s magnanimity.
Sources:
Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), “경애하는 김정은동지께서 김정은국방종합대학을 축하방문하시여 하신 연설 (Speech at Congratulatory Visit to Kim Jong Un University of National Defence),” KCNA (central state-owned broadcaster), 8 Oct 2024. http://kcna.kp/kp/article/q/aa579c643101bb7eb1a0e7e21f43d9a1.kcmsf
The respected Comrade Kim Jong Un made a speech at the congratulatory visit to Kim Jong Un University of National Defence…
It is a matter of course that the more fearfully they become aware of their doomsday coming closer, the more frantic the ringleader of aggression and its lackeys, dependent on anti-communism and war for their existence, will go and rush to war till they collapse with sheer exhaustion…
I am saying this as you need to have a clear understanding of our enemy.
As you have learned through newspapers and broadcasts, some days ago I made clear my view of and stand towards this matter.
A wise statesman would not act so rashly as to endanger the security of his country and its population; in dealing with a nuclear-armed rival, rather than opt for a confrontation or face-off with it, he would put emphasis on, and concern himself about, how to handle the situation and avoid military conflict.
Even if there appeared a matchless commander unheard-of in the time-honoured history, he would not be able to come up with a realistic method of overcoming the distinctions between the capabilities of nukes and conventional weapons.
For the Republic of Korea, all that it needs to do in order to guarantee its security is not provoking us into using our military strength.
This is so simple a method.
It would find itself safe if it refrained from provoking us or flexing its muscles before us at times, but it seems that Seoul has no one capable of doing such a simple thing.
To be honest, we have no intention of attacking the Republic of Korea.
Thinking of it is abominable, and we hate dealing with those in it.
Formerly, we often spoke about liberating the south and reunification by force of arms, but now we are not interested in it. And since our statement about two separate states, we have been all the more unwilling to be conscious of the state in the south…
OE Insight Summary:
Kim Jong Un’s recent policy speech disclaims any desire to reunify with the South, classified the relationship as being between enemy states, sets the stage for a future military operation to change the status quo, and threatens Seoul with a reminder that KOR exists owing to the restraint and mercy of Kim Jong Un.
Image Information:
Image: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un gives a speech to the Kim Jong Un National Defense University (Oct 8, 2024).
Source: http://kcna.kp/siteFiles/photo/202410/PIC0084398.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain under Art. XII of the Copyright Act of North Korea, aka PD-KPGov which is “government or other works in the public domain,”