OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT WATCH

FMSO’s newsletter using local-language media to offer international perspectives of the operational environment.

German Opinion Divided on Increased Multi-Domain Task Force Capabilities

A U.S. and German pronouncement on 10 July 2024 that the United States will start deploying long-range fires units to Germany in 2026 sparked a sharp Russian rebuke. On 12 July, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Ryabkov, made a statement that involved some thinly veiled nuclear threats. Continue reading →

Tuareg Separatist Militants Form an Alliance Against Junta-Led Governments in Mali and Niger

Since 2021, West African security and political dynamics have deteriorated as a result of coups by military juntas in the region’s three central states—Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. Continue reading →

India Considers Implications After the Collapse of the Bangladeshi Government

In early August 2024, protests in Bangladesh resulted in the collapse and resignation of the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Continue reading →

Cartel Internecine Warfare Erupts in the State of Sinaloa

The state of Sinaloa, along Mexico’s Pacific coast, is synonymous with cartels and home to one of the most notorious transnational criminal groups in the country. Continue reading →

Drone Warfare Is Becoming a Common Tactic in Mali

Recent reporting indicates that both the Malian military and Tuareg separatist groups are utilizing drone warfare. Continue reading →

North Korea Reveals Previously Undisclosed Uranium Enrichment Site

North Korean state media is releasing stories at a steady pace highlighting its advancements and intent regarding its illicit nuclear weapons program and associated delivery systems. Continue reading →

North Korea Unveils New 12-Axle ICBM Launcher

North Korea publicly revealed a new, larger ICBM transporter erector launcher (TEL) system, potentially for a new ICBM class. The communist Workers’ Party of Korea newspaper Rodong Sinmun, released a picture of Kim Jong Un inspecting a new 12-axle TEL. Continue reading →

Iran Believes Israel is Too Weak to Take on Hezbollah

As tit-for-tat strikes continue between Israel and Lebanon since 7 October 2023, Iran believes the Jewish state is too weak to take on a new war front with Hezbollah. Continue reading →

Iran Is Building a Wall Along Its Afghan Border

As border tensions between Iran and neighboring Afghanistan continue, Tehran has started building a border wall. Continue reading →

Iran Exports Important Nanotechnology to Russia

As Iran’s oil fields decline due to decades of use and mismanagement, nanotechnology and the production of industrial catalysts become more important in enabling the extraction of the oil essential for the regime’s survival and the funding of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Continue reading →

The Evolution of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Ukraine

The accompanying excerpted article from the monthly journal of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Voyennaya Mysl, discusses the evolution of UAV use since the inception of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. Continue reading →

Russian Duma to Strengthen Pro-Kremlin Youth Movements

The Russian State Duma announced on Telegram it will be transforming its Federal Agency for Youth Affairs, or Rosmolodyozh, into a larger body to strengthen and consolidate the country’s youth ideological education initiatives, from kindergarten to higher education. Continue reading →

Russia Conducts Its Largest Naval Exercise in More Than 30 Years

Russia conducted its largest naval exercise in more than 30 years, likely to dispel the notion of its failures against Ukraine in the Black Sea. Continue reading →

Chinese Icebreaker Makes Port Call in Murmansk

China keeps pushing itself into the Arctic, and Russia is partnering in the effort. The excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer notes that the Chinese icebreaker Xue Long 2 recently visited the Russian Arctic port of Murmansk for the first time. Continue reading →

Possible New Chinese Frigate Offers Clues on Future Weapons Testing

An image of a new stealth corvette or possibly light frigate[i] moored to a pier appearing on Chinese social media and blogs has drawn significant attention and speculation. Continue reading →

China Conducts First Live-Fire Exercise Integrating Aircraft Carriers and Amphibious Assault Ships

On 9 September, Chinese TV reported that the PLA Navy’s Shandong carrier group recently conducted combat exercises in the South China Sea and the West Pacific. Continue reading →

The China-Africa Cooperation Forum Focuses on Chinese Military Expansion in Africa

51 African heads of state attended, the tri-annual Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing from 4-6 September. While China currently has one base in Africa on the Djibouti coast, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s FOCAC speech bolstered other reports about China’s ambitions to expand its military footprint on the continent, including possibly establishing other military bases. Continue reading →

Egypt is Rumored To Have Signed Purchase Agreement for Chinese J-10C Fighters

Unconfirmed reports indicate that the Egyptian Air Force may soon acquire the export variant of China’s J-10C fighter aircraft.[i] If confirmed, this would represent a clear deepening of Egypt-China military ties amidst growing regional uncertainty due to the conflict in Gaza. Continue reading →

Chinese Marines Participate in Brazil’s Military Exercise for the First Time

The participation of Chinese Marines in Operation Formosa, a multinational military exercise hosted by Brazil’s Navy, caps off a diplomatically busy summer between China and Brazil. Continue reading →

Report Highlights North Korea’s Fixation on Information Control

Reports from inside North Korea of increasingly harsh prison sentences and mass executions for viewing foreign language materials underscore that the Regime assesses information control as vital to the continued existence of the North Korean state. Continue reading →

North Korea Previews Hypothetical Negotiating Strategy

North Korea previewed its negotiating strategy in a hypothetical future Trump Administration via a recent high-level commentary in its main state-run party newspaper. The commentary both dismissed Pyongyang’s interest in negotiating with the United States and refuted former U.S. President Trump’s statement that his personal relationship with Kim Jong Un would make future negotiations easier. Continue reading →

Electoral Fraud in Venezuela Assists Axis of Authoritarians

Venezuela’s recent presidential election has been the subject of significant criticism from election observers and the international community.[i] In addition to the electoral irregularities and uneven playing field before election day, the Maduro regime delayed the announcement of election results due to an alleged cyber-attack from North Macedonia. Continue reading →

Nigerian Security Services Crackdown on Russian Flag Protesters

Russian influence in Francophone West African countries that have experienced military coups in the last few years is a clear trendline. One of the most notable examples of this influence has been the expansion of the Wagner Group – or Africa Corps as the company is now known – in the region. Continue reading →

FMSO’S MILITARY DIME (M-DIME) RESEARCH PROJECT

FMSO’s comparative series investigating how Russia and China seek to gain military influence in third-party states around the world.

FMSO’s Military DIME (M-DIME) Research Project tracks how China and Russia employ instruments of national power to obtain military influence in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia. Within this framework, “military influence” is defined as the ability of a Benefactor country to shape or alter the attitudes, behaviors, and capabilities of actors within—and entities associated with—the armed forces of Recipient countries. The M-DIME framework identifies 12 distinct instruments of national power employed by Benefactor countries to gain military influence in Recipient countries, three for each of the DIME categories.