OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT WATCH

FMSO’s newsletter using local-language media to offer international perspectives of the operational environment.

Report Highlights North Korea’s Fixation on Information Control

Reports from inside North Korea of increasingly harsh prison sentences and mass executions for viewing foreign language materials underscore that the Regime assesses information control as vital to the continued existence of the North Korean state. Continue reading →

North Korea Previews Hypothetical Negotiating Strategy

North Korea previewed its negotiating strategy in a hypothetical future Trump Administration via a recent high-level commentary in its main state-run party newspaper. The commentary both dismissed Pyongyang’s interest in negotiating with the United States and refuted former U.S. President Trump’s statement that his personal relationship with Kim Jong Un would make future negotiations easier. Continue reading →

Electoral Fraud in Venezuela Assists Axis of Authoritarians

Venezuela’s recent presidential election has been the subject of significant criticism from election observers and the international community.[i] In addition to the electoral irregularities and uneven playing field before election day, the Maduro regime delayed the announcement of election results due to an alleged cyber-attack from North Macedonia. Continue reading →

Nigerian Security Services Crackdown on Russian Flag Protesters

Russian influence in Francophone West African countries that have experienced military coups in the last few years is a clear trendline. One of the most notable examples of this influence has been the expansion of the Wagner Group – or Africa Corps as the company is now known – in the region. Continue reading →

Armenia Continuing Its Move Away From Russian Reliance

Armenia continues taking steps away from Russia by working with other partners. The majority of Armenia’s weapons inventory is made up of Russian systems, leaving the Armenian government largely reliant on Russia. Continue reading →

Russia’s Africa Corps Personnel Redeploy From the Sahel to Kursk

On 28 July, Tuareg rebels in the Coordination of Azawad Movements, a mostly secular Tuareg ethnonationalist militant and political coalition, together with the al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), massacred dozens of Africa Corps fighters (formerly the Wagner Group) and Malian soldiers in northern Mali near the Algerian border. Continue reading →

Sahelian States Sever Ties with Ukraine

Allegations of an “African Front” being opened in Russia’s war on Ukraine have caused multiple nations in the Sahel to sever diplomatic relations with Ukraine as African and Russian leaders accuse Ukraine of supporting terrorist organizations. Continue reading →

The Failure To Deter Houthi Vessel Attacks May Deepen Saudi-China Security Ties

Arabic-language media analysts and commentators widely agree that the U.S.-led Operation Prosperity Guardian – formed in December 2023 to address Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea -- has not effectively deterred Yemen’s Houthis from targeting commercial maritime traffic. Continue reading →

Iran Increasing Lithium Battery Production

The Iranian government appears to be doubling down on investment and production of lithium batteries. According to a report published by Young Journalist Club, on 8-9 July, Iran University of Science and Technology in Tehran hosted a conference to highlight local developments in the lithium battery field. Continue reading →

Belarus and Iran Broaden Military Cooperation

A meeting between Iranian and Belarusian military officials underscores the strengthening of ties between the two internationally isolated countries. In the excerpted article by state broadcaster IRIB, the commander of the Iranian Army, MAJ GEN Mousavi, said “The political, military, and defense officials of the two countries are determined to develop and deepen cooperation.” Continue reading →

Iranian Military Equipment Integrating Artificial Intelligence

As the international community enters the world of artificial intelligence (AI) warfare, Iran is integrating and developing this technology into its military equipment.[i] As reported by Iranian state broadcaster IRIB, Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGC-N) said during a ceremony in the southwestern port city of Bandar Abbas on 9 August, “Artificial intelligence technology has been utilized in the new equipment, and we are currently witnessing its results.” Continue reading →

China and Russia Expand Agreement for Arctic Strategic Resource Development

Russia has signed an agreement with China to partner in the development of a major lithium field in Russia’s far north according to the excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer. It is likely that Russia would like to mine its lithium fields on its own, but the contract demonstrates Russia’s need for a partner. Continue reading →

Russian Security Forces Face Rise of Domestic Terrorism Threats

Russia’s Investigative Committee and the Federal Security Service (FSB) announced in early August it had foiled a plot by two Russian religious preachers to recruit fighters of the Islamic State (formerly ISIS) to carry out terrorist attacks inside the country. Continue reading →

Russia Creating New Officer Academies to Support Armed Forces Expansion

In December 2022, Russia announced that it would increase the number of uniformed personnel in the Ministry of Defense from approximately 1 million to 1.5 million personnel at a Collegium of the Russian Ministry of Defense, attended by President Putin, former Minister of Defense General Shoigu, and Chief of the General Staff General Gerasimov. Continue reading →

China Introduces New Unmanned Systems in Combat Exercises

China introduced and employed some of its unmanned systems during recent combat exercises, highlighting how it plans to dominate the future battlefield. In the exercise, “Peace Unity-2024,” Chinese participants worked closely with Tanzanian military personnel on new drone combat techniques. Continue reading →

China Conducts Joint South China Sea Combat Patrol Near Huangyan Island

On 7 August, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command conducted a joint combat patrol in the South China Sea near Huangyan Island. The patrol coincided with a four-nation military exercise conducted by the United States, Canada, Australia, and the Philippines in the same region and aimed to “test the theater troops’ reconnaissance and early warning, rapid mobility, and joint strike capabilities.” Continue reading →

China’s Southern Theater Command Strained by Growing Operational Requirements

Multiple press reports emanating from Southeast Asia suggest China’s Southern Theater Command is being stretched to its operational limits.[i] According to the excerpted article from India media aggregator First Post, instability on the China-Myanmar border due to the on-going internal conflict in Myanmar between government and insurgent forces, and continued tension in the South China Sea, could push the command to the brink of its operational capabilities. Continue reading →

China’s South China Sea Strategy Complimented by Civilian Infrastructure

Building civilian infrastructure and populating the newly built islands of the South China Sea is part of a cycle of building, populating, and defending that population and infrastructure that China is growing throughout the disputed islands. A recent article in Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) focused on a strategic but otherwise mundane-seeming event—the opening of Xinyi Hardware Store on Woody Island in the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. Continue reading →

Rumors of Russian Military Cargo Activity Underscore Tunisia’s Eastward Turn Away From the United States

Recent rumors of Russian military cargo flights into Tunisia highlight President Kais Saied’s “eastward turn”— including toward China and Iran — and the potential erosion of Tunisia’s security partnership with the United States. Continue reading →

Turkey Deploying Syrian Private Security Contractors to Niger

Turkey is deploying Syrian militants to Niger to protect economic interests. While their desire for money presents challenges of commitment and resembles Russia’s Wagner mercenaries in West Africa, the Syrian militants operate more like private security contractors and have a lesser counter-insurgency role. Continue reading →

Sudanese Armed Forces Employ Iranian Drones in Civil Conflict

The Sudanese Armed Forces received Iranian drones to gain a military advantage in urban warfare over the rival Rapid Support Forces paramilitary faction. This development deepens Sudan-Iran relations and boosts Iran’s hope for greater access to the Red Sea. Continue reading →

Burkina Faso Reels From Continued Terrorist Attacks

Despite the Burkinabe government spending nearly 30% of the state budget on military equipment, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated group Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin has continued to conduct deadly and coordinated attacks against targets throughout the country. Continue reading →

Pakistan Under Pressure To Protect China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Projects

After several terrorist attacks against China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects in 2024, China is pressuring Pakistan to launch counterterrorism operations to protect Chinese interests. However, such operations would incur significant costs to Pakistan at a time when its economy is struggling. Continue reading →

FMSO’S MILITARY DIME (M-DIME) RESEARCH PROJECT

FMSO’s comparative series investigating how Russia and China seek to gain military influence in third-party states around the world.

FMSO’s Military DIME (M-DIME) Research Project tracks how China and Russia employ instruments of national power to obtain military influence in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia. Within this framework, “military influence” is defined as the ability of a Benefactor country to shape or alter the attitudes, behaviors, and capabilities of actors within—and entities associated with—the armed forces of Recipient countries. The M-DIME framework identifies 12 distinct instruments of national power employed by Benefactor countries to gain military influence in Recipient countries, three for each of the DIME categories.