OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT WATCH

FMSO’s newsletter using local-language media to offer international perspectives of the operational environment.

Maduro Shakes Up Top Security Posts in Venezuela Following Disputed Election

In the aftermath of a deeply contested election, the Maduro regime in Venezuela has undertaken a major reorganization of security positions to consolidate control around the dictator. Continue reading →

Latin America’s Dictators Scramble To Join BRICS

In recent years, the BRICS grouping—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has emerged as a major challenger to the Western-supported international order.[i] Led by major emerging market economies on five continents, BRICS has increased its influence over matters of global financial governance, reform of multilateral institutions, and support of a Global South agenda. Continue reading →

Kazakhstan Expands Opportunities for Volunteers To Join the Armed Forces

Kazakhstan’s armed forces began to draw operational and tactical lessons from the war in Ukraine not long after Russia invaded in February 2022.[i] The accompanying excerpted article from the independent news website Fergana Agency reports that Kazakhstan is again using the example of the war in Ukraine to introduce a new law that allows citizens to volunteer for the military in the event of a war. Continue reading →

Chadian President Threatens Withdrawal From Multinational Joint Task Force

On 28 October 2024, Boko Haram carried out a significant attack against Chadian soldiers in Barakaram on Lake Chad, killing at least 40.[i] Chadian President Mahamat Idris Deby Itno reacted to the Barakaram attack not by requesting greater collaboration with the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF),[ii] which Nigeria has done in response to Boko Haram attacks. Continue reading →

Nigerian Senator Proposes Employment of Private Military Companies Against Boko Haram

Nigeria is a country that has historically shied away from employing private military companies (PMCs) as a matter of national sovereignty. When the country has employed PMCs, including a South African-led contingent[i] that combatted Boko Haram in 2015, it has not yielded success beyond short-term gains. Continue reading →

Arabic-Language Media Divided on Hezbollah’s Future

Hezbollah’s future has become a subject of intense speculation in Arabic-language media following the group’s loss of its top leadership in Israeli strikes earlier this year, including that of Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. Continue reading →

North Korean State Media Quickly Censors Its Own Photos

For more than a decade, South Korean NGOs have routinely launched balloons into North Korea containing anti-regime leaflets, USB drives, and CD/DVDs containing foreign media and news reporting, food, medicine, and other items. Continue reading →

Iran Struggles to Supply Its Electric Grid

While Iran boasts the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves after Russia, it is increasingly difficult for it to provide enough supply to its electrical generating stations to power its electric grid. The problem is especially severe in the winter as consumption increases. Continue reading →

Iranian Navy Closely Monitors U.S. Naval Operations in the Persian Gulf

As tensions stemming from the Gaza war continue, Iran claims that it is sending a message through its monitoring of U.S. naval vessels in regional waters, which it believes do not belong there. Continue reading →

Iran and Saudi Arabia Deepen Defense and Bilateral Ties

Iran and Saudi Arabia’s defense ties grow despite Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election—known for his maximum pressure strategy on Tehran. According to the semi-official media outlet Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA), on 10 November, the general chief of staff of Saudi Arabia’s armed forces, General Fayyadh al-Ruwaili, met with his Iranian counterpart, Major General Mohammad Baqeri, in Tehran, where they discussed “the development of defense diplomacy and the expansion of bilateral cooperation.” Continue reading →

Iran’s Supreme Leader Hints at His Own Succession

On 7 November 2024, Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 years old,[i] appeared before the 88-member Assembly of Experts, a clerical body charged with selecting the new supreme leader, to discuss—obliquely but still more directly than ever before—his own succession. Continue reading →

Russian Volunteer Force Highlights the Evolution of UAV Missions in Ukraine

The accompanying excerpted article from the Russian daily newspaper Izvestia discusses the activities of the Volunteer Corps of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s Española Brigade. The Española Brigade—currently numbering no more than 100 individuals, according to the founder—began as a volunteer formation of soccer enthusiasts, which now provides trained UAV operators and UAVs to support Russia’s conventional force in the special military operation in Ukraine. Continue reading →

Russia Expands Its Arctic Research Capabilities

In October, Russia announced the construction of its latest Arctic-capable research vessel, the Ivan Frolov. According to the first excerpted article from the Norway-based The Barents Observer, the Ivan Frolov, set for completion in 2028, will be the largest Arctic research vessel of its kind in the world and “the new flagship of Russia polar science.” Continue reading →

Russia Offers Financial Incentives To Meet Troop Recruiting Targets

In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for the “mobilization” of an additional 180,000 new service members. However, the meaning of “mobilization” appears to be a question of semantics: Russian media has reported that there is no talk in Moscow of a partial mobilization similar to the one conducted in the autumn of 2022, which led to tens of thousands of Russians fleeing the country. Continue reading →

Russia and Belarus To Strengthen Security Guarantees

Russia and Belarus have nearly finalized a “Treaty on Security Guarantees of the Union State,” according to an interview with Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic Alexander Wolfovich in Izvestia, a pro-Kremlin Russian newspaper. Continue reading →

China’s Expands Its Influence in Africa Through Economic and Security Cooperation

China is supporting African countries in economic and infrastructure development alongside its growing military presence in the continent. Tanzania, where China has been showing increasing interest in both the security and economic realms, is indicative of this trend. Continue reading →

China Sets Sight on Gabon for Second African Military Base

Beijing is targeting Gabon to host the second Chinese military base on the African continent, marking its first military base on Africa’s western coast. On 9 October, the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation website published the excerpted Chinese-language article, which highlighted the Chinese naval visit to Gabon. Continue reading →

China Debuts Fifth-Generation Stealth Fighter

China hosted the 2024 International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai from 12 to 17 November 2024. The event showcased a range of new and upcoming advanced weapons, including attack helicopters, UAVs, and robots. Notably, it marked the debut of China’s newest fifth-generation stealth fighter, the J-35A. Continue reading →

China Unveils New High-Power Microwave Weapon Systems

China unveiled at least three mobile, ground-based, high-power microwave-directed energy weapon systems during the Zhuhai Air Show in November. According to the excerpted article published on Chinese blog and news outlet Sina, these weapons are capable of paralyzing hundreds of drones with one strike and could give China an advantage in future wars. Continue reading →

Damage to Undersea Cables in Baltic Hint at China – Russia Collusion

On 19 November, the Danish Navy detained the Chinese-flagged bulk carrier Yi Pang 3 under the suspicion that it had damaged undersea cables connecting Finland and Germany and cables connection Sweden and Lithuania. Continue reading →

India’s UAV Development Struggles to Take Off

As India has made a push to build up its defense industry, it occasionally allows the armed forces to make acquisitions of weapon systems outside of Indian production venues. Continue reading →

Terrorist Attack in Togo Reveals Turkish Counter-Terrorism Role

The littoral West African country of Togo, along with its neighbor Benin, is a main target of expansion for the al-Qaeda affiliated Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM). Continue reading →

Mexico’s Sheinbaum Launches Plan To Address Security Crisis

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power in October in the middle of a full-blown security crisis. In just a few weeks, the State of Sinaloa has witnessed hundreds of deaths at the hands of warring factions within the Sinaloa Cartel. Continue reading →

FMSO’S MILITARY DIME (M-DIME) RESEARCH PROJECT

FMSO’s comparative series investigating how Russia and China seek to gain military influence in third-party states around the world.

FMSO’s Military DIME (M-DIME) Research Project tracks how China and Russia employ instruments of national power to obtain military influence in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia. Within this framework, “military influence” is defined as the ability of a Benefactor country to shape or alter the attitudes, behaviors, and capabilities of actors within—and entities associated with—the armed forces of Recipient countries. The M-DIME framework identifies 12 distinct instruments of national power employed by Benefactor countries to gain military influence in Recipient countries, three for each of the DIME categories.