OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT WATCH

FMSO’s newsletter using local-language media to offer international perspectives of the operational environment.

Rumors of Russian Military Cargo Activity Underscore Tunisia’s Eastward Turn Away From the United States

Recent rumors of Russian military cargo flights into Tunisia highlight President Kais Saied’s “eastward turn”— including toward China and Iran — and the potential erosion of Tunisia’s security partnership with the United States. Continue reading →

Turkey Deploying Syrian Private Security Contractors to Niger

Turkey is deploying Syrian militants to Niger to protect economic interests. While their desire for money presents challenges of commitment and resembles Russia’s Wagner mercenaries in West Africa, the Syrian militants operate more like private security contractors and have a lesser counter-insurgency role. Continue reading →

Sudanese Armed Forces Employ Iranian Drones in Civil Conflict

The Sudanese Armed Forces received Iranian drones to gain a military advantage in urban warfare over the rival Rapid Support Forces paramilitary faction. This development deepens Sudan-Iran relations and boosts Iran’s hope for greater access to the Red Sea. Continue reading →

Burkina Faso Reels From Continued Terrorist Attacks

Despite the Burkinabe government spending nearly 30% of the state budget on military equipment, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated group Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin has continued to conduct deadly and coordinated attacks against targets throughout the country. Continue reading →

Pakistan Under Pressure To Protect China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Projects

After several terrorist attacks against China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects in 2024, China is pressuring Pakistan to launch counterterrorism operations to protect Chinese interests. However, such operations would incur significant costs to Pakistan at a time when its economy is struggling. Continue reading →

Criminal Organizations Mar Mexican Elections

Recently completed elections in Mexico, the largest in the country’s history, were also the most violent in its history. Election-related violence portends greater control of criminal organizations over politics. Continue reading →

Iran Spaceport To Open in 2025

Iran has announced that its third satellite launch facility and its second “spaceport” will become operational in Chabahar by February 2025. Continue reading →

Bahrain May Renew Ties With Iran Following Saudi Arabia’s Lead

Iran claims that Bahrain wants to restore ties with Tehran, following Saudi Arabia’s lead. Continue reading →

Iran Asserts the Strength of Its Air Defense Capabilities

Following Israel’s attack, Iranian Army Air Defense Force Commander Brigadier General Alireza Sabahifard visited the northwest region to assess its air defense capabilities and has asserted that they remain very strong. Continue reading →

Kazakhstan Imposes New Language Requirements for Citizens

Kazakhstan imposes stricter language requirements for naturalized citizens to reduce the role of Russia in Kazakhstani society. Continue reading →

Russia Demonstrating Power Projection Capabilities With Havana Port Call

The Russian government has sent a flotilla of three warships and one nuclear-powered submarine to port in Havana, Cuba. Its stated intentions are both to punish Western countries for supporting Ukraine and to display its own power projection capabilities. Continue reading →

Russian Drift Station Vital to Arctic Research Effort

Russia is using a large drift station called Severney Polyus (North Pole) in the Arctic to gather information. Continue reading →

Russia Sees Need for Emphasized “React to Ambush” Training

Russian military observers have called for more emphasis on “react to ambush” training, which they see as a current weakness. Continue reading →

Russia Gains Combat Power From Volunteer Service

Russia volunteer formations, such as the GROM Kaskad unmanned aircraft brigade, provide Russia additional avenues of generating combat power. Continue reading →

Taiwan President’s Inaugural Speech Prompts Chinese Military Drills

The inauguration of Taiwan’s new pro-independence president prompted Chinese outrage, leading Beijing to conduct large-scale military exercises which represented a “powerful punishment for the separatist forces seeking ‘independence. Continue reading →

China Creating Undersea Cable Network in Response to United States Isolation Efforts

China will create its own independent network of undersea cables to assert its independence as the United States seeks to isolate China from the current global network. Continue reading →

China Assures and Warns Japan Regarding Taiwan

China issued both an assurance and a warning to Japan after Tokyo released a plan to evacuate its southern island chains should conflict erupt between China and Taiwan. Continue reading →

China Concludes Its Largest Military Drills Near Taiwan

China concluded its Joint Sword-2024A military drills, the largest and closest-ever drills held near Taiwan. China states these drills test its ability to seize power in Taiwan, reinforcing concerns that future exercises may serve as a pretext for an actual invasion. Continue reading →

Cracks Appear in Maduro Regime

Recently, the Maduro regime has shown signs of schisms within the ruling Chavista Party,[i] now known as the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). The arrest and prosecution of regime insider, former Oil Minister Tareck El Aissami, is a watershed moment for elites in Maduro’s inner circle. According to the first excerpted article from the centrist Colombian daily El Tiempo, Maduro accused El Aissami of being behind the assassination attempt Continue reading →

Armenia Hints It May Withdraw From Russia-Backed Regional Security Bloc

Armenia recently announced it will no longer pay its dues to the Collective Security Treaty Organizations (CSTO), a Moscow-led security organization comprised of countries from Central Asia and the South Caucasus. According to the first excerpted piece from the Russian state news agency, TASS, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told his countrymen that they can no longer rely on the CSTO and he had no answer to how Yerevan benefits Continue reading →

Georgian Parliament Discusses Impacts of “Russia Law”

Georgia has been rocked by waves of protests and counter-protests triggered by the re-introduction of a “foreign agents law,” the so-called “Russia law” in parliament by the Georgian Dream party. The legislation, similar to a law passed in Russia and currently in debate in Georgia’s breakaway region of Abkhazia,[i] requires all non-governmental groups and media organizations to disclose foreign funding and influence, thus leading to Continue reading →

West African Joint Task Force’s “Psychological” Approach Sees Increased Boko Haram Defections

In February 2024, the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF)[i] launched Operation Nashrul Salam to dislodge Boko Haram from its bases around Lake Chad in the border region between Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. Although operations with similar objectives have been carried out regularly for several years,[ii] the MNJTF has renewed hopes that this time the operation will be more lasting and decisive. Continue reading →

Mali Launches Successful Counterterrorism Operations

The Malian Armed Forces (FAMA) recently publicized a series of successful counter-terrorism operations against armed extremist groups throughout the country. According to the first excerpted article from Arabic-language Moroccan electronic newspaper Tamaghrabit, FAMA announced that it had successfully eliminated Abu Hudhayfah, a former Polisario Front separatist and one of the leaders of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Continue reading →

FMSO’S MILITARY DIME (M-DIME) RESEARCH PROJECT

FMSO’s comparative series investigating how Russia and China seek to gain military influence in third-party states around the world.

FMSO’s Military DIME (M-DIME) Research Project tracks how China and Russia employ instruments of national power to obtain military influence in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia. Within this framework, “military influence” is defined as the ability of a Benefactor country to shape or alter the attitudes, behaviors, and capabilities of actors within—and entities associated with—the armed forces of Recipient countries. The M-DIME framework identifies 12 distinct instruments of national power employed by Benefactor countries to gain military influence in Recipient countries, three for each of the DIME categories.