Tag Archives: Russia

Robot-Enhanced Vehicles Planned for Arctic Equipment Evacuation

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“Arctic Troops will be equipped with robot tow-trucks and repair vehicles that will be capable of working with any damaged equipment at a Temperature of -50 or below.”

Special terrain requires special equipment, and Russia’s new recovery vehicles will improve its combat capabilities in the Arctic.  According to the pro-government newspaper Izvestiya, the Russian military has mounted the REM-KL recovery vehicle super structure on the tracked articulated multipurpose DT-30PM vehicle.  The REM-KL can reportedly pull 13 tons and its 9.8-meter hydraulic crane can lift 950 1-ton loads with a reach of 8 meters and 3 tons with a reach of 3 meters.  Its hydraulic winch has a traction force of 10.5 tons and a pulling force up to 20 tons.  Further, the MTR-K reconnaissance vehicle’s recovery capabilities, traditionally fitted on a wheeled chassis, are being fitted to the GAZ-3344-20 articulated tracked transport vehicle and being designated as the MTR-G.  The MTR-G’s reported lifting capacity is some 3 tons.  The MTR-G does double duty as an NBC reconnaissance vehicle.  The two new Arctic vehicles will work as a team to recover and repair ground forces equipment.  The addition of an on-board unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) search capability should greatly aid Russia’s ability to find broken-down and disabled vehicles in rugged terrain.   Russia employs such purpose-built tracked articulated vehicles in a variety of ways: as mobile kitchens and bakeries, mortar and artillery platforms, communications vehicles, command posts, troop transports, and supply vehicles.  They readily cross snow, ice, and swamps and can swim bodies of water.

Source:

Aleksei Ramm and Bogdan Stepovoi, “Северный почин: арктические войска вооружат роботами-эвакуаторами (Equipping the Arctic forces with robot tow trucks and repair vehicles),” Izvestia (Moscow based pro-government newspaper), 3 December 2021.  https://iz.ru/1258603/aleksei-ramm-bogdan-stepovoi/severnyi-pochin-arkticheskie-voiska-vooruzhat-robotami-evakuatorami

Arctic Troops will be equipped with robot tow-trucks and repair vehicles that will be capable of working with damaged equipment at a Temperature of -50 or below.  Special Arctic recovery and repair subunits will be incorporated into the Russian Ground Forces soon.  Special tow trucks and mobile repair shops, mounted on articulated prime movers are part of the subunit’s TO&E equipment.  Their primary advantage is their capability to tow a heavy vehicle at minus 50 degrees or below… The vehicles are robotized and permit the crew to accomplish their work without leaving the heated cab. If necessary, their equipment will help find a vehicle on the battlefield and eliminate the malfunction on the spot.  The arctic “repairmen” will be involved with not only trucks and armored vehicles.  They will be able to work with such complex types of weapons as S-300 and S-400 air defense systems, “Bal” and “Bastion” missile systems, and with future robotized platforms…. 

The evacuation and repair subunits will deploy to main garrisons and repair the entire range of ground forces equipment.  The REM-GT heavy repair and recovery vehicles and the MTR-G technical reconnaissance vehicles will become the main “work horses” of the arctic repair detachments that are already at a high degree of readiness.  The vehicles will undergo state tests in arctic conditions in the near future.  After this, the arctic subunits’ organization and staff structure will be determined. 

The new heavy-duty REM-GT repair and recovery vehicle is based upon the DT-30PM articulated tracked transport vehicle.  It is designed for maintenance, field repair, and recovery of all types of equipment, which are deployed in the arctic zones.  The MTR-G technical reconnaissance vehicle is mounted on the GAZ-3344-20 articulated tracked transport vehicle.  It will transport the maintenance subunits’ specialists to reach marooned equipment, assess its state, and render needed assistance on the spot. 

The new repair vehicles function in the Arctic and the Far North, Siberia, and the Far East.  At low temperatures or in wind squalls, the crew use the robotized manipulators to take even the heaviest models of military equipment undertow, without leaving the heated cab.

According to Military Expert Aleksey Khlopotov, “In northern conditions, the combat capability of the entire arctic grouping depends on the functions of the rear services units.  The new repair and recovery vehicles will precisely help to support them. The North is permafrost, snow during the winter and swamps in the summer.  The tracked all-terrain vehicles with low ground pressure have been adapted for operating in those conditions.  They will go where wheeled vehicles get stuck.  This will help provide repair and recovery of equipment on inaccessible terrain. 

Khlopotov pointed out that the DT-30PM articulated tracked transport vehicles are already well known in the Ground Forces.  The “Tor-M2DT” and “Pantsir-SA” are air defense missile systems that are part of the arctic force’s inventory and are also mounted on these vehicles. 

Vehicles for the recovery and repair of equipment are being delivered to the Ground Forces now.  The Ministry of Defense previously reported that the wheeled version of the powerful REM-KS would arrive in the Western Military District inventory by the end of 2021. They will conduct the recovery and repair of the “Iskander” short-range ballistic missile systems in the field.  The REM-GT and MTR-G will operate in tandem in field conditions and combat. The equipment reconnaissance specialist must first arrive at the location of the combat in order to assess the amount of work and damage.  If necessary, its crew will be able to assist the soldiers and officers to extract the stalled vehicle or to conduct minor repairs on the spot. 

The vehicle is equipped with navigation and night vision instruments, a 360-degree video surveillance system, and an unmanned aerial vehicle.   This package permits the conduct of searches at a distance of 10 kilometers at any time of day and practically in any weather.  It will also be indispensable in peacetime dung the conduct of search and rescue operations in accessible areas of the North.  The MTR-G has equipment for radiation and chemical reconnaissance.  During large-scale operations, the crew needs to know that the terrain is not contaminated with toxic agents and that the atmosphere does not pose a danger for personnel in order to begin work or to call for backup. 

The articulated REM-GT is capable of operating autonomously.  The all-terrain vehicle is equipped practically with that same suite of hardware as the maintenance reconnaissance vehicle but does not have an unmanned aerial vehicle.  The vehicle has been adapted for functioning in a cold climate to the maximum extent possible.  In particular, it has robot manipulators that can take any damaged equipment in tow.  The video cameras provide 360-degree visibility and assist the crew in this extraction.

Depending on the type of equipment, which they will have to repair, the crew can rapidly select or change the machine tool sets, the necessary spare parts, and the necessary expendable supplies.  These are located in the rear vehicle articulated compartments.  This stockage will permit the crew, without outside help, to repair ground force vehicles and tanks or the combat modules of air defense systems.  The time required for the REM-GT to prepare for movement at a temperature of -50 degrees is 30 minutes.

Izvestiya previously reported that repair and recovery regiments formed in each military district.  During combat, each of them is capable of forming several quick response teams, which will function in an autonomous mode directly at the front line.

Russia Modifies Short-Range Air Defense Systems To Combat UAVs

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9K333 Verba MANPAD.

9K333 Verba MANPAD.

Missile of the 9K333 Verba MANPAD.

Missile of the 9K333 Verba MANPAD.

Pantsir-SM.

Pantsir-SM.

“Today, the Russian defense industry manufactures two types of anti-UAV weapons – soft-kill (electronic suppression) and hard-kill (physical destruction). According to the manufacturer, the new Pantsir-S1M is capable of operating in both modes.”

“With its [the “Verba” man-portable anti-aircraft missile system] help, they will try to create an “anti-drone dome” and intercept not only drones, but also precision guided aircraft munitions…”

The accompanying excerpted articles from Russian government news agency TASS and Russian newspaper Ivestiya discuss how existing close-range air defense systems are being modified to defeat small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).  According to TASS, the Russian defense industry manufactures soft-kill (electronic suppression) and hard-kill (physical destruction) anti-UAV weapons.  The latest version of the Russian Aerospace Forces’ (VKS) Pantsir self-propelled anti-aircraft gun and missile system is the Pantsir-S1M, which will reportedly be capable of physically destroying UAVs while also electromagnetically interfering with their operation.

The Izvestiya article explains how the Russian Ground Forces intend to physically destroy small UAVs by way of the Verbaman-portable anti-aircraft missile system (MANPAD).  According to Izvestiya, the 9K333 Verba (SA-25), a modernized variant of the 9K38 Igla (SA-18) produced by KB Mashinostroyeniya, has a more sensitive seeker, enabling it to find smaller targets, such as small UAVs.  In addition, the Verba may be used as part of an integrated air defense system and can acquire data from other sensors to facilitate targeting.  Although the Verba has no reported soft-kill capability as with the Pantsir-S1M, this does not mean that the Ground Forces are not pursuing soft-kill capabilities.  Russian Ground Forces’ air defenses usually work closely with, and are close to, electronic warfare units that practice this skill; therefore, adding it to air defense systems is not necessary.

Source:

Vasily Kuchushev, “Панцирь-С1М и электромагнитные ружья: Как армия России будет бороться с беспилотниками (Pantsir-S1M and Electromagnetic Weapons: How the Russian Military Will Fight Drones),” TASS (Russian government news agency), 13 December 2021. https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/13166705

It is difficult to imagine a modern army of any state without unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The tactics of their application are constantly being improved.  Already today, there is a concept of using a whole swarm of drones, when one large target can be attacked by hundreds of small and cheap UAVs.  The experience of modern military conflicts in Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh has shown that attacking UAVs are one of the most effective strike weapons. At the same time, small and ultra-small UAVs are actively used not only by the military, but also by terrorists…

According to the chief designer of “Pantsir” Valery Slugin, the anti-drone functions were originally part of the air defense missile system’s concept.  However, at the time the system was created in the mid-90s, they were quite large.  Over time, the dimensions and flight altitude of the UAV decreased, which became a serious problem for most radars.  The main difficulties arose in the detection, tracking and guidance of missiles at such a target.  To intercept smaller drones, the Pantsir’s radar was upgraded.  The new radar can see up to 75 km, and simultaneously detect and track up to 40 targets…

Today, the Russian defense industry manufactures two types of anti-UAV weapons – soft-kill (electronic suppression) and hard-kill (physical destruction). According to the manufacturer, the new Pantsir-S1M is capable of operating in both modes.  With the help of the latest electronic equipment, the Pantsir-S1M can suppress the operation of drone navigation equipment at a distance of 15-18 km.

According to Sergei Mikhailov… the modernized air defense missile system is capable of becoming the basis of tactical air defense.  “On the basis of Pantsir-S1M, an effective modular air defense network can be built, capable of covering military units from small-sized and attack UAVs, high-precision weapons and, of course, military aviation – aircraft and helicopters.  The complex fully complies with modern A2/AD [anti-access and area denial].  (The theory of the formation of air defense, allowing to block the enemy’s access to critical areas)”, – said Sergei Mikhailov.

For the most effective defense against unmanned aerial vehicles in Russia, an echeloned electronic countermeasures system for small-sized UAVs is being developed.  The system provides reliable protection of territories and facilities from both individual drones and their groups, including swarms of drones.

Source: Anton Lavrov, Bogdan Stepovoy, Andrey Fedorov, “Укрыться под «Вербой»: над Белоруссией проверят «антидроновый купол» (Taking Cover Under ‘Verba’: An ‘Anti-Drone Dome’ Will Be Over Belarus),” Ivestiya (large circulation Russian newspaper), 21 January 2022. https://iz.ru/1280053/anton-lavrov-bogdan-stepovoi-andrei-fedorov/ukrytsia-pod-verboi-nad-belorussiei-proveriat-antidronovyi-kupol

Russian and Belarusian troops will be covered from the drones of a potential enemy.  The Verba  man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems (MANPADS) will be used for at the upcoming “Union Resolve-2022” large-scale maneuvers for the first time.  With its help, they will try to create an “anti-drone dome” and intercept not only drones, but also precision guided aircraft munitions…

The crews of these complexes will be distributed over a large area in order to create a protective dome.  In addition to intercepting the drones themselves, they will also experiment with intercepting aviation weapons – guided bombs and missiles…  According to the developers, the new, much more sensitive homing head has dramatically increased the ability to deal with small objects, such as UAVs. Compared with the anti-aircraft systems of the previous generation, the capabilities of the new missile have doubled, especially at a distance of more than three kilometers.  In addition, they can be linked into a single system with long-range air defense systems and receive external target designation [data]…

The Verba complex is capable of hitting aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles and drones at altitudes from 10 to 4500 meters and at a distance of up to 6 kilometers.  MANPADS received a missile with a unique three-spectral homing head, which sees targets in the ultraviolet, near and mid-infrared ranges.  It is capable of distinguishing an airplane or helicopter from a thermal decoy on approach and choosing the right target…For the first time, the [command-and-control system] set includes a ‘Garmon’ portable radar, which, depending on the modification, monitors the airspace within a radius of 40-80 kilometers… two types of radars have been developed.  The first one is lightweight, and can not only be transported by motor vehicles or armored vehicles, but also carried.  The second is mounted, as a rule, on a tracked chassis and has higher target detection characteristics.  The Barnaul-T automated tactical air defense complex integrates the Verba into the overall air defense system and can use information about air targets coming from other, more powerful radars.  It allows you to create a scenario for the actions of anti-aircraft gunners, allocate targets based on capabilities, positions, combat readiness and the state of ammunition…

Image Information:

Image: 9K333 Verba MANPAD.
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/ARMY-2016-Static-part4/i-GXpqd8Q/0/a8347be1/M/Army2016-552-M.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Image: Missile of the 9K333 Verba MANPAD.
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/ARMY-2019-Exhibition-pavilions/i-nXrbftn/0/ec20d1fe/X3/Army2019Pavilions-069-X3.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Image: Pantsir-SM.
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Military/ARMY-2019-Static-part-3/i-GMsTdcm#
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Russian Motorized Rifle Divisions To Gain an Electronic Warfare Battalion

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RB-341V Leer-3 with Orlan-10 UAV.

RB-341V Leer-3 with Orlan-10 UAV.

Orlan-10 UAV of the RB-341V Leer-3.

Orlan-10 UAV of the RB-341V Leer-3.

“According to Colonel General Alexander Zhuravlyov, the battalion’s addition to the division ‘will protect significant sites, increase the reconnaissance capabilities of the formation, and reduce the time it takes to obtain necessary information.’”

“The [electronic warfare] battalions will be equipped with Zhitel, Leyer-3 and Borisoglebsk-2 electronic warfare systems can conduct electronic intelligence and suppress the operation of communication and navigation systems…”

“There is no doubt that the use of the Leer-3 system not only severed communications between the combat groups and their foreign controllers, but also provided Kazakh security forces their geolocation data… The loss of a unified command and control by the terrorists and their inability to coordinate actions led to a completely natural result – the elimination of combat groups…”

Traditionally, Russian motorized rifle divisions and brigades each have an organic electronic warfare (EW) company.  However, according to the excerpted articles from Russian newspaper Izvestiya and state-owned news agency Radio Sputnik, future motorized rifle divisions will have their EW company upsized to an EW battalion.  According to Radio Sputnik, Colonel General Alexander Zhuravlyov, the commander of the Western Military District, stated that this change “will significantly increase the reconnaissance capabilities of the formation and reduce the time it takes to obtain necessary information.”  Izvestiya notes that these new battalions will be equipped with the R-330Zh Zhitel jammer, the Borisoglebsk-2 EW suite, and the RB-341V Leer-3 EW/unmanned aerial system (UAS).  Although EW companies already have the Zhitel and Borisoglebsk-2, the RB-341V Leer-3 will be a new capability at the brigade/division echelon.  Previously, only the echelons above the maneuver brigade/division had this system.  It is important to note that, aside from the RB-341V Leer-3 and more kit, these EW battalions will most likely closely resemble the EW companies from which they are derived, maintaining their tactical focus.  This means that the EW battalions found in the motorized rifle divisions are far different from the EW battalions found at the Combined Arms Army level in terms of purpose, structure, and equipment, which includes the Palantin, Krasukha-S4, etc., as this type of an EW battalion has more of an operational focus.

The accompanying excerpted article from the weekly military and defense-focused newspaper Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer discusses the value of the RB-341V Leer-3 to security forces during the recent unrest in Kazakhstan.  According to the article, “There is no doubt that the use of the Leer-3 system not only severed communications between the combat groups and their foreign controllers, but also provided Kazakh security forces their geolocation data.”  The inclusion of the RB-341V Leer-3 in more numerous, lower-level, tactical units show the importance Russia places on cell phones in modern warfare.  The RB-341V Leer-3 is not just envisaged to do cell phone jamming and geolocation, but also to influence the population by way of sending short message service (SMS) and audio messages, and eventually, even digital files.

Source:

“Россия усилила радиоэлектронную борьбу на границе с Украиной (Russia has stepped up electronic warfare on the border with Ukraine),” Radio Sputnik (state-owned news agency, news website platform and radio broadcast service), 25 January 2022.

https://radiosputnik.ria.ru/20220125/razvedka-1769436630.html

Russia’s Western Military District (WMD) has deployed a new battalion of electronic warfare systems in Belgorod Region, which borders on Ukraine, Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported on 25 January.

“A separate electronic warfare battalion became part of the Vislenskaya [3rd] Motorized Rifle Division of the Western Military District. Subdivisions of the new military unit are deployed in Belgorod Region,” the Western Military District said…According to Colonel General Alexander Zhuravlyov, the battalion’s addition to the division “will protect significant sites, increase the reconnaissance capabilities of the formation, and reduce the time it takes to obtain necessary information”…

Source: Bogdan Stepovoy, Roman Kretsul, Andrey Fedorov, “Ценность помех: в Западном округе создают батальоны радиоэлектронной борьбы (The Value of Jamming: Electronic Warfare Battalions Are Being Created in The Western Military District),” Izvestiya (large circulation Russian newspaper), 2 February 2022. https://iz.ru/1285283/bogdan-stepovoi-roman-kretcul-andrei-fedorov/tcennost-pomekh-v-zapadnom-okruge-sozdaiut-batalony-radioelektronnoi-borby

Electronic warfare battalions will be formed as part of several divisions of the Western Military District. The new units will protect troops, socially significant sites, and industrial facilities from strikes by precision-guided munitions. The battalions are equipped with complexes capable of suppressing enemy GPS systems, communications and navigation. The first such military unit was formed in Belgorodskaya Province and became part of the 3rd Guards Motorized Rifle Division. Experts note that this is an effective defense along the Russian border…

The battalions will be equipped with Zhitel, Leyer-3 and Borisoglebsk-2 electronic warfare systems can conduct electronic intelligence and suppress the operation of communication and navigation systems, military expert Aleksey Leonkov told Izvestiya…

“Operating as part of a division, the systems can carry out reconnaissance and jam sources of communication and control, as well as transmit the coordinates of aviation and artillery targets for strikes,” said Leonkov. “Each of them has its own specialization. The R-330Zh Zhitel jammer is designed to detect, find and jam signals and satellite communication stations, as well as navigation systems, including GPS. Such actions prevent UAVs, cruise missiles and other PGM from orienting themselves on the ground when striking… The Leyer-3 complex includes three Orlan-10 drones, which are used to jam cellular GSM communications… The main task of “Borisoglebsk-2” is the detection and suppression of various communication channels, including radio navigation systems.

Source: Vitaly Orlov, “«Леер» спас казахстан от сползания в пропасть (‘Leer’ Saved Kazakhstan from Sliding into the Abyss),” Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer (weekly newspaper focusing on military and defense industry complex issues), 25 January 2022.  https://vpk-news.ru/articles/65512

On January 12, the Vietnamese edition of Soha published information about the use of Leer-3 electronic warfare systems by the CSTO peacekeeping contingent in Kazakhstan. According to the authors, this capability was one of the decisive factors in ensuring the successful outcome of the counter-terrorist operation of the Kazakh security forces.  “There is no doubt that the use of the Leer-3 system not only severed communications between the combat groups and their foreign controllers, but also provided Kazakh security forces their geolocation data” the report says. The loss of a unified command and control by the terrorists and their inability to coordinate actions led to a completely natural result – the elimination of combat groups…

New drones capable of replacing cell towers have successfully passed the combat test program on the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic and have been officially adopted by the Russian Armed Forces. They have the ability to send audio and SMS messages to subscribers, and in the near future it is planned to add the ability to transfer video files. Since 2015, the drones that were part of the Leer complex have successfully suppressed base stations, but could not effectively resist 3G and 4G networks, which in turn created certain difficulties when interacting with smartphones. In modernized drones, these problems are solved. They “jam” the base stations, taking their place and becoming their virtual twins.

According to Denis Kuskov, CEO of the analytics company Telecom Daily, the “fake base station” created by the drone, unnoticed by the user, intercepts traffic and connection control, depriving him of the ability to connect to another base station. An operator controlling an unmanned aerial vehicle as part of the RB-341V Leer-3 gets the opportunity to generate calls and SMS messages to all subscribers within its coverage area…

Image Information:

Image: RB-341V Leer-3 with Orlan-10 UAV.
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-QX8bGpH/0/X3/i-QX8bGpH-X3.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Image: Orlan-10 UAV of the RB-341V Leer-3.
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-JRLBkqD/0/X3/i-JRLBkqD-X3.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Detrimental to Turkey

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Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

“… conflict… poses a significant risk to the Turkish defense industry.”

The accompanying articles highlight that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine poses significant risks to Turkey’s already troubled economy, energy security, and defense industry regardless of Turkey’s position in this conflict as it balances its NATO obligations with its relations with Russia.  According to the first article from globally read security news site al-Monitor, the war will have crippling consequences for the Turkish economy since Russia is Turkey’s key economic partner in many sectors, including tourism, construction, and energy.  The second article from anti-Turkish government daily Sözcü states that sanctions targeting the Russian banking system will negatively impact Russian projects in Turkey, including the construction of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant that Turkey contracted to a Russian company for development.  The war in Ukraine will also make trade routes in the region insecure and negatively impact Turkey’s economic interests and trade with other countries in the region.  Furthermore, according to the Sözcü article, the war will likely disrupt the flow of natural gas to Turkey, leading to an energy crisis since Russia is the largest natural gas supplier to Turkish markets.  The two countries have nearly completed the construction of two natural gas pipelines carrying Russian natural gas to Turkey and some European countries.

The third article from independent Turkish news agency Anka Haber Ajansı highlights that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will also have significant implications for the Turkish defense industry.  Defense cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey is significantly larger than Turkey’s widely reported TB-2 drone export to Ukraine.  Ukraine’s two major firms in aviation engine and manufacturing, Ukrainian Motor Sich and Ivchenko Progress, a Ukrainian state-owned company, provide engines for the Turkish defense company Baykar’s Bayraktar Akıncı drone and the Turkish Aerospace Industries’ T929 ATAK 2 attack helicopter.  Turkey is also building a MilGem-class corvette for the Ukrainian navy, which the article notes, is one of the biggest exports for the Turkey’s defense industry.  The article points out that the conflict will hinder Turkey’s ability to sustain the supply of subsystems and products to its defense industry from Ukraine.

Source:

Amberin Zaman,“Russian invasion of Ukraine would spell more economic turbulence for Turkey,”al-Monitor (a globally read security news site with regionally based reporting),07 February 2022. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/02/russian-invasion-ukraine-would-spell-more-economic-turbulence-turkey

War would bring Turkey under intense pressure from its Western allies to join putative sanctions against Russia, a critical trading partner and supplier of natural gas. Turkey will do its best to remain neutral, as signaled anew by Erdogan in comments to reporters en route home from Kyiv.

Ukraine has bought at least 20 drones from Turkey since 2018 and has used one only once in combat against Russian-backed separatists in Donbas in October 2021, eliciting growls from Moscow.

However, Turkey’s worries go beyond having to balance its NATO commitments with Russia, a key economic partner and since 2016 security partner in Syria. An actual war could have crippling consequences for Turkey’s battered economy.

In Ukraine, Turkey’s flourishing defense cooperation would likely suffer in a Russian attack as well.

Recent deals between Turkey and Ukraine include the supply of gas turbines for Turkish-designed naval vessels by Ukraine’s Zorya Mashproekt. Ukraine has ordered four of the MilGem class corvettes for itself.

Tourism, which Erdogan is banking on to help with an economic recovery ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections that are scheduled to be held by 2023, is also at risk.

… At best, Turkey can provide the two sides with “an optional diplomatic channel of communication” through which their respective messages are relayed.

Source: Dünya Taşlardan,“Rusya-Ukrayna krizi Türkiye’yi nasıl etkiler? (How does the Russia-Ukraine crisis affect Turkey?),”Sözcü (an anti-Turkish government daily),22 January 2022. https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2022/dunya/rusya-ukrayna-krizi-turkiyeyi-nasil-etkiler-6904478/

A possible war may involve significant losses for Turkey. First of all, if there is a war situation in the Black Sea, it will be difficult for tourists to come from both Russia and Ukraine this summer. Another problem is that Turkey meets most of its wheat needs from Russia and Ukraine. Since the war situation will also affect these imports, there may be rapid price hikes in food products…

In case of war, natural gas pipelines such as TurkStream and BlueStream in the Black Sea, which seem to be an important source of income for Russia, may also be attacked. Such a case may lead to a natural gas crisis in Turkey. By inviting both the Ukrainian and Russian presidents to Turkey, Turkey is actually signaling that it will remain neutral in this crisis with its mediation offer…

Turkey does not recognize and does not implement the sanctions imposed by the USA and EU countries on Russia. In this sense, we can say that there is an understanding and cooperation between the two countries. Although Turkey may not implement the Russian sanctions, especially the sanctions that would be applied in the banking system will negatively affect the Russian projects in Turkey. The construction of Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant may be delayed.

Since there will be no dollar circulation, Russia may have to pause its projects. Again, as the Black Sea will become a war zone, the use of commercial roads will be difficult, which will be reflected in the prices.

Source: Arda Mevlütoğlu,“Turkey – Ukraine Defense Cooperation In Russia’s Crosshairs?,”Anka Haber Ajansı (an independent Turkish news agency based in Ankara),06 February 2022. https://ankahaber.net/AnkaReview/Columnists/turkeyukraine_defense_cooperation_in_russias_crosshairs_73570

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky signed several agreements on Feb. 3, during Erdogan’s visit to Kyiv. The deals included a free trade agreement and a pact on cooperation in advanced technologies, aviation, and space…

Turkey’s sale of armed drones to Ukraine has come under harsh criticism by Russia. The TB2, however, is not the only subject of the rapidly enhancing defense industry cooperation between Kyiv and Ankara. Ukraine has become a preferred supplier for Turkey, especially for engines. A potential conflict, therefore, poses a significant risk to the Turkish defense industry…

Ukraine has two major firms in aviation engine design and manufacturing, Motor Sich and Ivchenko Progress…

The Bayraktar TB2’s manufacturer, Baykar Savunma. has developed a strategic reconnaissance/surveillance and strike drone that is designated Bayraktar Akinci. The Akinci can be powered by various types of turboprop engines, among them the Ivchenko Progress AI-450T… Baykar Savunma signed another deal with Motor Sich for the MS500 engine for the Akinci drone.

The drones are not the only area of engine procurement from Ukraine. Turkish Aerospace Industries (TA) signed a contract with Motor Sich for the TV3-117 turboshaft engines last June for use with the prototypes of the T929 ATAK 2 next-generation attack helicopter project. The Ukrainian company is also offering the same engine for the T925 10-ton class general-purpose helicopter project of TA.

Marine gas turbine specialist Zorya Mashproekt has become a candidate for supplying gas turbines for Turkish-designed naval vessels, mainly for the MilGem class corvettes… The MilGem sale to the Ukrainian Navy is one of the biggest defense exports of the Turkish defense industry…

An armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine poses a major risk for sustaining the supply of subsystems and products to Turkey. The level of risk depends on the scale of the conflict.

In a limited-scale conflict scenario, where the clashes occur in and around the Donbas region, there is a lower risk of Ukrainian defense industry facilities being targeted by Russian armed forces…

The second scenario is a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian armed forces. This scenario is the worst for Turkey and the region. In such a case, defense industry facilities as well as strategic industrial and infrastructure elements would be primary targets for the Russian military. The destruction of manufacturing facilities as well as the loss of skilled personnel would deal a devastating blow to the Ukrainian defense industry as well as to Turkish defense projects.

There may definitely be other scenarios involving intervention by external actors, diplomatic resolution, or various types of armed conflict. However, one thing is certain: a conflict of any type or scale would be a worst-case scenario for Turkey.

Image Information:

Image: Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
]Source: Russian Presidential Executive Office, kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62936, via Wikimedia, https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vladimir_Putin_and_Recep_Tayyip_Erdogan_(2020-03-05)_03.jpg, Files from Kremlin.ru
|Attribution: CC-BY-4.0 | Russia photographs taken on 2020-03-05

Latest Russian Population Figures Show Continued Declines

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“… I believe that their results are unreliable, not trustworthy. The current census is generally taken out of thin air…”

Recent data regarding Russian population trends are again a cause for concern.  The first excerpt from the independent, pro-business source RBC,analyzes recent population data from the Russian Statistic Agency Rosstat.  The article points out that the “natural” Russian population declined by 1.04 million people during 2021, resulting in a “permanent population” of 145.478 million people.  The article stresses that the decline continued “for the fourth year in a row” for a total decrease of 1.4 million people.  The article quotes a Russian medical official who claims that the “high level of population decline is associated with ‘super-mortality from COVID’—in the form of direct causes or concomitant diseases.”  This article concludes by citing expert officials who assert that “excess mortality… would have a long-term negative impact on the Russian economy.”

Russian population figures have often been a source of contention.  The Russian government conducted a nationwide census in late 2021, and while the official results will not be released until later in 2022, some Russian sources are already beginning to question the validity of the census numbers.  The second excerpt from the moderate and popular Svobodnaya Pressa claims that “the 2021 census is 100% fiction.”  After providing a brief history of how census data has been collected and manipulated in the past, the article quotes a Russian academic who says “the current census is generally taken out of thin air.”  The article includes anecdotal evidence that suggests many Russians did not participate in the recent census.  If there is truth to the quote that “demography is destiny,” then Russia faces an uncertain and potentially challenging future unless it can address its population decline.

Source:

Ivan Tkachev, “Естественная убыль населения в России за год превысила 1 млн человек (The natural population decline in Russia for the year exceeded 1 million people),” RBC (independent, pro-business source), 28 January 2022. https://www.rbc.ru/economics/28/01/2022/61f3bbaa9a794767f04fdaa7

The natural population decline in 2021 for the first time in the history of the modern Russian Federation reached 1.04 million people. The last time the indicator approached this level was in 2000. The main reason was the pandemic. As of January 1, 2022, the permanent population of Russia amounted to 145.478 million people, having decreased over the year by almost 693 thousand people (minus 0.5%)…. In general, the decline in the population of Russia is recorded for the fourth year in a row. During this period, the population of the country decreased by 1.4 million people, follows from the data of Rosstat….

A high level of population decline is associated with the “supermortality from COVID” – in the form of direct causes or concomitant diseases, Kalabikhina emphasizes…

… Both ACRA and the VEB Institute emphasized that excess mortality (demographic footprint) would have a long-term negative impact on the Russian economy.

Source: Ivan Rybin, “Русский миллиард: Перепись населения обернулась очередной фальшивкой (Russian billion: Population census turned into another fake),” Svobodnaya Pressa (moderate, popular source), 9 February 2022. https://svpressa.ru/society/article/324647/

… On February 9, 1897, 125 years ago, the first general population census was held in the Russian Empire. Prior to this, the state was limited to administrative and police accounting, that is, it deduced figures practically “from the lantern.” Today, in the 21st century, the authorities of the Russian Federation have returned to the vicious practice of autocracy, no one believes the data of 2021….

… However, what is happening today is even worse….  How many of us at the moment – in fact, it is not clear.  But obviously not 146 million people, the 2021 census is 100% fiction

“I also had complaints about previous censuses, I believe that their results are unreliable, not trustworthy.  The current census is generally taken out of thin air,” said Grigory Yudin, a sociologist and professor at the Moscow Higher School of Social and Economic Sciences.

“We don’t know how many people we have. Serious demographers say that there are actually 90 million of us.  I have two female students who were engaged in the population census in different parts of Moscow.  One counted 6.5 thousand people in her area, and the other – 8.5 thousand.  Where there are 6.5 thousand, they said to write down 10 thousand people, and where there are 8.5 thousand, they ordered to write down 12 thousand.  Thus, in these areas, a population of 30% was attributed.  It seems that this situation was also throughout Russia,” said the famous historian Andrei Fursov back in 2012.

“I conducted a roll call in my social circle, and it is large, and on my FB page, not a single person was revealed who would have seen a live census taker.  Those who answered that they participated in the census did it on their own through the State Services website, including me.  And this, of course, does not correlate in any way with the data announced by the organizers – more than 99% of the population took part in the census…” said political scientist Alexander Kynev.  The author of these lines also has a large social circle, and completely similar data.  No one came to anyone, to his friends, acquaintances, relatives, too….

China-Russia Pledges of Deeper Cooperation Show Tangible Results

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Chinese and Russian Flags.

Chinese and Russian Flags.

“…We continue to expand local currency settlements and establish mechanisms to counteract the negative effects of unilateral sanctions. The Agreement between the Russian Government and the Chinese Government on Settlement and Payment signed in 2019 became an important milestone in this work.”

“The two sides reiterated that they firmly support each other’s core interests, national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and oppose external interference in the internal affairs of the two countries.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing in early February, and Russia and China took the opportunity to cement their increasingly close relationship further.  The accompanying excerpts from Putin’s public letter and a joint statement, both published by Chinese state media outlet Xinhua, give some sense of the future direction of this relationship.  Central to both the letter and the joint statement is the expressed desire to expand cooperation across a wide range of areas, including space exploration, development of the Arctic, transportation, science, and technological development.

The two countries have successively upgraded relations from a constructive partnership (1994), to strategic partnership of coordination for the 21st century (1996), to a comprehensive strategic coordinated partnership (2011), to a new-era Sino-Russian comprehensive strategic coordinated Partnership (2019) (See “China Upgrades Relations with Russia,” OE Watch, July 2019).  These titles have been accompanied by real improvements in the two countries’ levels of cooperation.  In particular, Putin’s letter highlighting the importance of joint efforts to improve each side’s ability to use local currencies in payments has helped Russia mitigate the effects of international sanctions.

Cooperation in the energy sector has further benefited both sides as China looks to transition its energy grid to use more natural gas as a cleaner and more efficient alternative to coal while Russia is diversifying and expanding its sales of oil and gas.  The two sides have steadily opened new transportation links to improve cross-border trade, including a bridge connecting Heihe and Blagoveschensk along the Amur River, which forms part of China’s northeast border with Russia (See “New Bridge to Connect Russia’s Far East with China’s Northeast,” OE Watch, February 2020).  In Putin’s letter, these links and improving trade have taken on additional importance as both countries look to expand trade after the negative effects of the global pandemic.

The joint statement expands upon the pledges of economic cooperation mentioned in Putin’s letter, promising increasing connectivity across Eurasia and cooperation in developing the Arctic.  The statement also systematically touches upon issues of concern to each side, ranging from core interests such as the “One China” Principle and the status of Taiwan, to the historical account of Russia’s role in World War Two.  It devotes significant time to defending their respective interpretations of democracy and positioning Russia and China as defenders of the post-World War Two international system and global security.  While both sides likely harbor some doubts about the long-term value of cooperation due to the massive inequalities in the size of their respective economies and populations, improving trade and scientific cooperation as well as backing each other diplomatically could pay significant dividends in expanding both countries’ national power in the near term.

Source:

“普京通过新华社发表署名文章《俄罗斯和中国：着眼于未来的战略伙伴》(Putin published a signed article through Xinhua News Agency ‘Russia and China: Strategic Partners for the Future’),” Xinhua (PRC State News agency), 3 February 2022.

http://www.news.cn/2022-02/03/c_1128325398.htm

OR

https://web.archive.org/web/20220203015000/http://www.news.cn/2022-02/03/c_1128325398.htm

….We continue to expand local currency settlements and establish mechanisms to counteract the negative effects of unilateral sanctions. The Agreement between the Russian Government and the Chinese Government on Settlement and Payment signed in 2019 became an important milestone in this work.

A mutually beneficial energy alliance is being formed between our two countries. In addition to the long-term delivery of oil and gas to China, we also plan to implement a series of large-scale joint projects. One of the projects is the construction of four new generating units at China’s nuclear power plant from last year, with the participation of the Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation. All of this greatly enhances the energy security of China and the entire Asian region.

We believe that the two countries have extensive opportunities to develop partnerships in the information and communications industry, medicine, and space exploration, including the application of national navigation systems and the implementation of the International Lunar Research Station project. The “Year of Science and Technology Innovation” held  2020-2021 and hosted by both countries has injected a huge impetus into strengthening bilateral relations.

Accelerating the socio-economic development of Siberia and the Far East is one of Russia’s strategic tasks. These regions are the regions closest to China. We plan to actively develop local cooperation, attract Chinese investment and technology, and expand global transportation and trade routes. For example, modernization and upgrading of the Baikal-Amur and Trans-Siberian railways have already begun. Its capacity will be doubled and a half by 2024 by increasing the volume of transit freight and shortening transit times. In addition, the port infrastructure in the Russian Far East has also been developed. All of these will further enhance the complementarity of the Russian and Chinese economies.… We have the same position on international trade issues. We advocate maintaining an open, transparent and non-discriminatory multilateral trading system based on the rules of the World Trade Organization, and agree to restart the global supply chain. As early as March 2020, Russia proposed an initiative to build a “green corridor” for trade without any sanctions, political and administrative barriers. The implementation of this initiative will help overcome the economic impact of the pandemic….

Source: “中华人民共和国和俄罗斯联邦关于新时代国际关系和全球可持续发展的联合声明 (Joint Statement of People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on International Relations in the New Era and Global Sustainable Development),” Xinhua (PRC State News agency), 4 February 2022. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2022-02/04/content_5672025.htm

… The two sides will actively promote the cooperation between the joint construction of the “Belt and Road” and the Eurasian Economic Union, and deepen the practical cooperation between China and the Eurasian Economic Union in various fields. Improve the level of connectivity in the Asia-Pacific and Eurasian regions. The two sides are willing to continue to promote the parallel and coordinated development of the joint construction of the “Belt and Road” and the “Greater Eurasian Partnership”, promote the development of regional organizations and the process of bilateral and multilateral economic integration, and benefit the people of all countries in the Eurasian continent.

The two sides agreed to further deepen pragmatic cooperation in Arctic sustainable development…

The two sides expressed deep concern over the severe challenges facing the international security situation, and believed that the people of all countries share a common destiny, and no country can and should not achieve its own security by breaking away from world security and at the expense of the security of other countries. The international community should actively participate in global security governance to achieve common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security.

The two sides reiterated that they firmly support each other’s core interests, national sovereignty and territorial integrity and oppose external interference in the internal affairs of the two countries.

The Russian side reiterated that it abides by the one-China principle, recognizes that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, and opposes any form of “Taiwanese independence.”

China and Russia oppose external forces undermining the security and stability of the two countries’ common surrounding areas, oppose external forces interfering in the internal affairs of sovereign countries under any pretext, and oppose “color revolutions”, and will strengthen cooperation in the areas mentioned above.

… The two sides believe that individual countries, military-political alliances or alliances seek direct or indirect unilateral military superiority, harm the security of other countries through unfair competition and other means, intensify geopolitical competition, exaggerate rivalry and confrontation, seriously undermine the international security order, and undermine global strategic stability. . The two sides oppose the continued expansion of NATO, and call on NATO to abandon the ideology of the Cold War, respect the sovereignty, security, interests, and diversity of civilizations, history and culture of other countries, and view the peaceful development of other countries in an objective and fair manner. The two sides oppose the establishment of a closed alliance system in the Asia-Pacific region and the creation of confronting camps, and are highly vigilant of the negative impact of the “Indo-Pacific strategy” promoted by the United States on the peace and stability of the region. China and Russia have always been committed to building a security system in the Asia-Pacific region that is equal, open, inclusive, and not targeting third countries, and maintains peace, stability, and prosperity.

Image Information:

Image: Chinese and Russian Flags.
Attribution: Image by Author. Permission to use image granted by author

Armenia Acquires Russian Helicopters as Part of Armed Forces Modernization

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Russian Air Force Mi-8MTV-5.

Russian Air Force Mi-8MTV-5.

“The air force received the four Mi-8MTV-5 helicopters in an assault configuration…”

A few months after the end of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, which resulted in significant Armenian losses, the Armenian government announced it would modernize the country’s armed forces.  At the August 2021 Russian-sponsored International Military-Technical Forum “Army-2021” in Moscow, Armenian Defense Minister Arshak Karapetyan stated that he was looking to acquire modern weapons and equipment from Russia and noted a need for unmanned aerial systems (UAS).  While Karapetyan did not announce any acquisitions made during the forum, the accompanying excerpted article reports on the recent delivery of Russian helicopters to Armenia and provides a look at one area where Armenian officials are modernizing the country’s armed forces.

The article from independent Russian-language news website Eurasia Daily reports that the Armenian Air Force received four Mi-8MTV-5 helicopters in January.  The article notes this variant of the Mi-8 helicopter can conduct a variety of tasks and referenced Karapetyan’s statement from last year.  The Armenian Air Force reportedly has 11 Mi-8MTVs already in service, though they are older variants and less versatile than the Mi-8MTV-5.  Overall, the helicopters are not as significant as the Armenian acquisitions of the Iskander ballistic missile system or the Su-30SM multirole fighters before the 2020 war; however, the helicopters mark an acquisition that took place during the modernization of the Armenian Armed Forces and will play a role in this.  It also illustrates how Russia continues to be one of the main providers of military equipment for Armenia.

Source:

“Армянская армия пополнилась боевыми вертолëтами (The Armenian army is being reinforced with combat helicopters),” Eurasia Daily (independent Russian-language news website), 25 January 2022.

https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2022/01/25/armyanskaya-armiya-popolnilas-boevymi-vertoletami

The Armenian Air Force received new multipurpose helicopters on 25 January, reports the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Armenia…

It is noted that the helicopters that entered service are designed to perform landing, fire support, transport, and medical tasks… The air force the received four Mi-8MTV-5 helicopters in an assault configuration…

Armenia will take practical steps to increase military-technical cooperation with Russia, then Defense Minister Arshak Karapetyan said in an interview on 24 August 2021. Yerevan, as part of an ongoing modernization of the Armenian Army after the war in Karabakh, plans to purchase only modern weapons, Karapetyan said…

Image Information:

Image: Russian Air Force Mi-8MTV-5.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mil_Mi-17-V5_(Mi-8MTV-5),_Russia_-_Air_Force_AN1905918.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 3.0

Russia’s Increasingly Visible Military Presence in Mali

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Map showing Russia and Mali.

Map showing Russia and Mali.

“‘You speak of mercenaries, it’s your business. For us, they are Russian instructors,’ said the Malian official.”  

Although Mali has longstanding military ties with France, Russia is filling the void left in the region following France’s withdrawal of forces from Mali.  According to a recent French-language article in tvmonde.com, Russian personnel have replaced French troops at a base in Timbuktu.  The article further suggests there may be up to 400 Russians in Mali operating as military instructors.

The article contends there is also growing confirmation of Russia’s Wagner Group in Mali, implying that the Russians are, in fact, mercenaries rather than regular armed forces.  According to the article, a Malian official in Timbuktu noted mercenaries were what outsiders might call the Russian troops, but from the Malian perspective all that matters is that the Russians are instructing Malian soldiers.  Meanwhile, according to a 12 January report in Russian-language Interfax military news.com, Russia denies any government role in Wagner Group activities in Mali and considers the company as having the right to independently pursue business interests in Mali.

The tvmonde.com article also notes that France and UN forces in Mali remain suspicious of the Russian presence and have reportedly conducted flights over the Timbuktu base hosting the Russians.  The article states that this angered Russia and caused Mali to request that France discontinue flights over the base.

Source:

“Mali: les Russes présentés comme des instructeurs de plus en plus nombreux (Mali: Russians presented more and more as instructors),” information.tv5monde.com 7 January 2021. https://information.tv5monde.com/afrique/mali-les-russes-presentes-comme-des-instructeurs-de-plus-en-plus-nombreux-439418#:~:text=Un%20des%20responsables%20maliens%20a,notre%20camp%20militaire%20de%20Sofara.&text=Mais%20un%20influent%20%C3%A9lu%20d,%C3%AAtre%20tu%C3%A9%20des%20mercenaires%20russes%22

Many Russian instructors have been deployed in Mali in recent weeks, especially on the Timbuktu base (north) recently left by French forces, said Malian military officials. One of these officials responded in the affirmative to the possibility that these instructors now number about 400 across the country.

The apparent strengthening of cooperation with Russia coincides with the reconfiguration of the French forces and the planned reduction of the Barkhane anti-jihadist force, which will drop from around 5,000 soldiers in the Sahel in the summer of 2021 to around 3,000 in the summer of 2022. Barkhane recently handed over three bases in the north to the Malians, the most recent in Timbuktu in mid-December. Russian instructors recently arrived in Timbuktu to accompany the delivery of Russian helicopters, a Malian official said. Another Malian official, also on condition of anonymity, confirmed the presence of “Russian military instructors in several parts of Mali. You speak of mercenaries, it’s your business. For us, they are Russian instructors,” said the chief official.

Source: “Москве неизвестно, сколько граждан РФ, сотрудников ЧВК “Вагнер”, находятся в Мали” (“Moscow does not know how many citizens of the Russian Federation and employees of Wagner PMC are in Mali),” Interfax militarynews.ru (Russian language news service), 12 January 2022. https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=564129&lang=RU

As a high-ranking diplomat stressed, “the officials of the Russian Federation have nothing to do with the activities of our private companies. This is capitalism. Everyone earns as they can,” he added. The interlocutor provided a negative answer to the question of whether, in principle, a register of Russian citizens in Mali is maintained.

Image Information:

Image: Map showing Russia and Mali
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mali_Russia_Locator.svg
Attribution: [CC x 2.0]

Russia Highlighting Use of “Cube” and “Lancet” Loitering Munitions in Syria

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ZALA Lancet loitering munition.

ZALA Lancet loitering munition.

“…government tests of the KYB loitering munition have been completed, and the results of the tests are considered positive… it was recommended that the Russian army be armed with this new type of strike attack drone…”

As reported in the accompanying December 2021 article from Russia’s Arabic-language media outlet RT Arabic, the KYB-UAV “kamikaze drone” (also referred to as KUB-BLA or “Cube”) has passed government field tests and is now ready for procurement by Russian forces, which is expected to begin this year.  The KYB-UAV is made by ZALA AERO, a subsidiary of the Kalashnikov Concern, itself a subsidiary of Rostec.  The KYB-UAV was first made public at Abu Dhabi’s 2019 weapons expo (IDEX-2019).  In December 2020, Rostec’s CEO explained that the KYB, along with a more advanced ZALA AERO loitering munitions platform called the Lancet, distinguishable by its double x-shaped tail, had both been tested in Syria that year.  A documentary that aired last December on the state-owned Russian-language news channel Russia 24 includes an interview with a purported Russian Lancet operator who oversaw more than 40 strikes in Syria, including a pair of targeted assassinations in Hama Province in April 2020.  Recently, Russian state television networksfeatured several clips of Lancets being used in Syria to target rebel positions and infrastructure.  As the article from the Syrian opposition news network Shaam News Network notes, a recent clip shows a Lancet targeting a small oil refinery in rural Hama Province.    However, the accuracy of Syrian opposition media reports on these platforms is limited, given the difficulty in distinguishing them from other weapons, and because Iranian and Syrian government forces operate similar, though more rudimentary, kamikaze drones. 

Source:

“مصدر روسي يعلن إنجاز اختبارات الدرون الانتحاري كوب


(Russian Source Announces Success of ‘Cube’ Suicide Drone Tests),” RT Arabic (Russian Arabic-language news network), 16 December 2021. https://tinyurl.com/2p86e54n

A source close to the Russian Ministry of Defense said that government tests of the KYB loitering munition have been completed, and the results of the tests are considered positive. The source added: “As a result of these tests, it was recommended that the Russian army be armed with this new type of strike attack drone.” The source indicated that the delivery of these drones to the armed forces will most likely start in 2022.

Source:

“الدفاع الروسية تستعرض مسيرات لانسيت الانتحارية بمقاطع تظهر استخدامها بسوريا

(Russian Defense Ministry Displays Use of ‘Lancet’ Suicide UAV in Video Clip from Syria),” Shaam News Network (Syrian opposition news network), 26 December 2021. https://tinyurl.com/bddd8f9p

The Russian Ministry of Defense published a video clip showing the use of “Lancet” Russian suicide drones, which it said shows the destruction of a small oil refinery factory belonging to the rebel factions in the countryside of Hama. Sham News Network was unable to determine the target location. Video clips were also posted on the telegram channel of Russia-1 journalist Alexander Rogatkin. The full version will be shown on Saturday on the Russia 24 TV channel. The journalist explained on his channel: “A small oil refinery belonging to Syrian militants was destroyed in the Hama countryside with the help of two munitions by the special operations forces of the Russian Armed Forces. It is assumed that Lancet drones were used.”

Source:  “Война Дронов – 2021 (Drone Wars – 2021),” Russia 24 (State-owned Russian-language news channel), 25 December 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Me7shKOc0c

Image Information:

Image: ZALA Lancet loitering munition.
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin Military Blog, https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Military/ARMY-2019-Exhibition-pavilions/i-HwGLLZC/A
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Copyright-policy

Respected Russian Academic Speculates on War in the Arctic

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“The Northern Fleet can only effectively counter American nuclear submarines in close proximity to its bases on the Kola Peninsula, and further to the East the adversary can operate more or less freely.”  

A recent article in the pro-Kremlin news outlet Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer sees the possibility of a military conflict breaking out in the Barents Sea region of the Arctic Ocean.  The author envisions a scenario emanating from a U.S. Navy freedom of navigation test of the Northern Sea Route (See: “Freedom of the Seas to Be Tested in Arctic?” OE Watch, April 2019). Well-known Russian political scientist Aleksandr Khramchikhin, Deputy Director of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, is the article’s author.  He has long argued that China is Russia’s primary security threat and that the United States is looking to the Global Strike Command to defeat Russia’s nuclear capability with non-nuclear strikes.  Khramchikhin lacks a military background, but his reasoning and commentary are respected.  Khramchikhin’s description of the Arctic operational environment includes scenarios of engagements that are narrow in their potential locations and application of forces.  Paratroop drops, submarine missile launches, fighter aircraft engagements, and ground force incursions with limited objectives seem to capture the nature of conflict, according the author.  He admits that “imagining a battle in this region is very difficult indeed.”

Source:

Aleksandr Khramchikhin, “Очень холодное поле боя: Война за акватории высоких широт может начаться с провокации на Северном морском пути (A very cold battlefield: A war for the high-latitude waters could begin with a provocation on the Northern Sea Route),” Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer (pro-government weekly focused on Russian military and military-industrial complex), 22 November 2021.  https://vpk-news.ru/articles/64758

Competition for the Arctic, possibly spilling into war over the region, is a subject at least two decades old.  As the Arctic ice melts, interest is growing fast in a region where near-free navigation, unfettered access to offshore hydrocarbons, and military operations are becoming possible. 

Nobody is planning to share out the Arctic lands, since they were claimed long ago.  This is about sharing the waters, where the picture is not quite so clear and the number of potential competitors is limited.  The air forces of Finland…and Sweden…have some potential but these countries do not directly border onto the Arctic Ocean so there is nothing for them to fight over.  Iceland does not have an air force so it has nothing to fight with, even if it wanted to. 

Canada’s forces…are generally somewhat feebler than Finland’s and Sweden’s, and are either stationed in the south of the country (on a similar latitude to Moscow) or are busy in various American wars in the Middle and Near East.  Canadian forces in the Arctic are purely symbolic, without even a proper northern regiment in total and armed with only light weapons.

The Danish Air Force is weaker even than the Canadian and is practically all stationed in Denmark itself, that is, on the Jutland peninsula and adjacent islands.  In Greenland there is only the Sirius ski patrol — 30 men, that is, a single platoon, and also armed with only light weapons.  One or two patrol boats are also based there.

So any involvement by Denmark and Canada in a fight for the Arctic is purely theoretical (regarding the military component of the fight).  Deployment of Canadian and Danish forces to the Arctic is in practice unrealistic — they are too few and anyway do not train for war on ice.  The most that Ottawa and Copenhagen could do is send to the Arctic a few warships (one or two submarines, three or four frigates from Canada and two or three frigates from Denmark) and to airfields in the Arctic — up to 10 or so warplanes (Canadian F-18A/Bs, Danish F-16A/Bs).  You cannot do much fighting with those.

Fairly large groups of US air and ground forces are stationed in Alaska.  They could capture Chukotka, where there are no Russian forces, with ease.  And the USAF could safely block the deployment to there of Russian contingents from Kamchatka, not to mention from the Vladivostok region.  Strange as it may seem, it would be easier for Russia to send Airborne Troops units to Chukotka from the European part of the country.  The Americans could in theory even land forces in Yakutiya (in the Tiksi area, for example).  True, Russian paratroopers could just as successfully turn up on the islands of Canada’s Arctic archipelago, which also have nothing and nobody to defend themselves with.  However, the point is that all these reciprocal assault landings are completely senseless and would create more problems for the protagonists than for the other side.  This is simply because an American expeditionary force in Chukotka and Yakutiya and a Russian one in northern Canada would be at a hopeless dead end with no chance of developing an offensive to the south, and with desperate supply issues.

The only place where potential “fighters for the Arctic” might come into direct contact is northern Europe.  The greater part of Norway’s air force…is stationed in the north of the country and in close proximity to the group of forces of Russia’s Northern Joint Strategic Command on the Kola Peninsula.  The Russian presence is of course more powerful, especially in terms of the two countries’ ability to grow their forces.  Imagining a battle in this region is very difficult indeed.  Between 1941 and 1943 on the entire gigantic Soviet-German front, the Arctic was the sole sector in which the Germans captured nothing, other than a few hundred square kilometers of lifeless tundra.  Imagining that the Norwegians will be more effective and successful than the Germans is, to put it mildly, hard.  It is even harder to imagine how the Norwegians’ NATO allies would come to their aid in the ice and snow.  On the other hand, in the fall of 1944 the Soviet army liberated only the Norwegian border county of Finnmark, and went no further.  The Supreme Command could not see any point in fighting for frozen mountains crisscrossed by fjords.  Modern-day Russia needs them even less.

It is practically impossible to conceive of an armed conflict in the Arctic over a disputed oil or gas field.  Hydrocarbons extraction in the region is a highly complex and expensive business, so no oil or gas company will start work on a deposit unless the legal status and national affiliation are settled.

Much more realistic is an incursion into Russia’s Arctic waters by American nuclear submarines, which from there could in theory fire Tomahawk cruise missiles at numerous military and economic targets in the Urals, Siberia, and the Far East.  The Northern Fleet can only effectively counter American nuclear submarines in close proximity to its bases on the Kola Peninsula, and further to the East the adversary can operate more or less freely.  In that case, the hopes lie with air rather than submarine defenses, that is, with eliminating the Tomahawks rather than their carriers.  But this kind of scenario could materialize only if matters get to the stage of full-scale war between Russia and the United States.

However, a dispute over “freedom of navigation” in peacetime cannot be discounted.  Washington believes that both Russia’s Northern Sea Route and Canada’s Northwest Passage are international waters in which civilian and military ships of any country may sail freely without the need to notify anybody.  A direct conflict between the United States and Canada, close allies, over the Northwest Passage is unlikely, and anyway, it is not greatly needed as a transport route (easier to take the Panama Canal).  The Northern Sea Route, which greatly shortens the time from Europe to Asia and back, is much more in demand.

On more than one occasion, American warships have sailed across the South China Sea, which Beijing regards as its own.  Matters have not yet reached the stage of direct confrontation with ships of the PLA, but it cannot be ruled out.  Similarly, nothing is stopping the Americans from just turning up and sending one or a number of warships through the Northern Sea Route without officially notifying Russia first.  Will Moscow be as restrained as Beijing?  Or will it require the Americans to scrupulously comply with Russian law and in the event of a refusal do what is necessary to head them off, including forcibly?  In that case, how far might the dispute go?  It is possible that Washington will allow us to find out, and very soon:  It badly wants to prove to the whole world and to itself as well that America can still do anything, including what others cannot.