Category Archives: Russia

Articles whose main focus is topics pertaining to Russia.

Wagner’s Questionable Operations in Africa

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The arrival of Russian military equipment, including these BRDM-2 armored vehicles, along with members of the Wagner Group helped prevent a rebel army from taking the Central African Republic’s capital in 2021.

The arrival of Russian military equipment, including these BRDM-2 armored vehicles, along with members of the Wagner Group helped prevent a rebel army from taking the Central African Republic’s capital in 2021.

“If no one else can provide it, African countries may continue to turn to the likes of Wagner…”

In 2021, Russia’s Wagner Group, a Kremlin-linked private military force, made a significant difference in the Central African Republic (CAR) when somewhere between 1,200 and 2,000 of its mercenaries, aided by 300 Rwandan soldiers, prevented rebels from capturing CAR’s capital, Bangui.  Wagner’s success was initially lauded by much of CAR’s populace, but as the accompanying excerpted article from South African Institute for Security Studies notes, those feelings of appreciation for restoring security have morphed into anger as Wagner has been accused of human rights abuses against civilians.  As the article states, Wagner has a mixed record in several African nations, including Libya, Sudan, and Mozambique.

In addition to the Wagner Group’s human rights record, people are asking questions about how the organization is paid.  As the article notes, no one has seen a contract between Wagner and CAR, leading to allegations that lucrative mining deals are the paramilitary force’s method of payment.  Further muddying the waters is the government of Mali, which denies the presence of the Wagner Group, claiming instead that it only has Russian instructors on its soil.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Wagner Group does not care that it is supporting undemocratic regimes.  This is particularly obvious in Mali, where Wagner did not arrive until after Colonel Assimi Goïta’s coup.  Still, as the article points out, despite the anguish of Western countries over Wagner’s involvement in Africa and the backlash of some African nations over the deplorable human rights abuses committed by the organization, there is grudging acceptance that in some beleaguered nations, Wagner has helped stabilize the situation by driving off terrorists.

Source:

Peter Fabricius, “Wagner’s Dubious Operatics in CAR and beyond, Institute for Security Studies (South African think tank), 21 Jan 2022. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/wagners-dubious-operatics-in-car-and-beyond

Russia has established a strong military presence in the Central African Republic (CAR) over the past four years, clandestinely using dubious actors like the military company Wagner, which is allegedly close to President Vladimir Putin. Wagner has become the deniable vanguard of a major Russian push into Africa, many analysts believe.

France has threatened to completely withdraw military support to Mali. Sweden has already announced its exit from the European force Takuba because of Wagner’s arrival. Such decisions are difficult because they may further weaken the fight against the common enemy – violent extremism.

But Wagner’s growing presence on the continent also poses some difficult questions to the international community, including the West. The problem is not only about democracy but also stability and security. If no one else can provide it, African countries may continue to turn to the likes of Wagner – though it’s too soon to judge its overall effectiveness either.

He says complicating any analysis or comparison is that Russia’s involvement in the CAR and elsewhere in Africa is probably more covert, so it’s hard to know just where it is and what it’s doing. (There are rumours that Russia has its eyes on Burkina Faso, for example.)

Image Information:

Image: The arrival of Russian military equipment, including these BRDM-2 armored vehicles, along with members of the Wagner Group helped prevent a rebel army from taking the Central African Republic’s capital in 2021.
Source: UN Security Council/Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:RussiansinBangui.png
Attribution: Public Domain

Russian Motorized Rifle Divisions To Gain an Electronic Warfare Battalion

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RB-341V Leer-3 with Orlan-10 UAV.

RB-341V Leer-3 with Orlan-10 UAV.

Orlan-10 UAV of the RB-341V Leer-3.

Orlan-10 UAV of the RB-341V Leer-3.

“According to Colonel General Alexander Zhuravlyov, the battalion’s addition to the division ‘will protect significant sites, increase the reconnaissance capabilities of the formation, and reduce the time it takes to obtain necessary information.’”

“The [electronic warfare] battalions will be equipped with Zhitel, Leyer-3 and Borisoglebsk-2 electronic warfare systems can conduct electronic intelligence and suppress the operation of communication and navigation systems…”

“There is no doubt that the use of the Leer-3 system not only severed communications between the combat groups and their foreign controllers, but also provided Kazakh security forces their geolocation data… The loss of a unified command and control by the terrorists and their inability to coordinate actions led to a completely natural result – the elimination of combat groups…”

Traditionally, Russian motorized rifle divisions and brigades each have an organic electronic warfare (EW) company.  However, according to the excerpted articles from Russian newspaper Izvestiya and state-owned news agency Radio Sputnik, future motorized rifle divisions will have their EW company upsized to an EW battalion.  According to Radio Sputnik, Colonel General Alexander Zhuravlyov, the commander of the Western Military District, stated that this change “will significantly increase the reconnaissance capabilities of the formation and reduce the time it takes to obtain necessary information.”  Izvestiya notes that these new battalions will be equipped with the R-330Zh Zhitel jammer, the Borisoglebsk-2 EW suite, and the RB-341V Leer-3 EW/unmanned aerial system (UAS).  Although EW companies already have the Zhitel and Borisoglebsk-2, the RB-341V Leer-3 will be a new capability at the brigade/division echelon.  Previously, only the echelons above the maneuver brigade/division had this system.  It is important to note that, aside from the RB-341V Leer-3 and more kit, these EW battalions will most likely closely resemble the EW companies from which they are derived, maintaining their tactical focus.  This means that the EW battalions found in the motorized rifle divisions are far different from the EW battalions found at the Combined Arms Army level in terms of purpose, structure, and equipment, which includes the Palantin, Krasukha-S4, etc., as this type of an EW battalion has more of an operational focus.

The accompanying excerpted article from the weekly military and defense-focused newspaper Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer discusses the value of the RB-341V Leer-3 to security forces during the recent unrest in Kazakhstan.  According to the article, “There is no doubt that the use of the Leer-3 system not only severed communications between the combat groups and their foreign controllers, but also provided Kazakh security forces their geolocation data.”  The inclusion of the RB-341V Leer-3 in more numerous, lower-level, tactical units show the importance Russia places on cell phones in modern warfare.  The RB-341V Leer-3 is not just envisaged to do cell phone jamming and geolocation, but also to influence the population by way of sending short message service (SMS) and audio messages, and eventually, even digital files.

Source:

“Россия усилила радиоэлектронную борьбу на границе с Украиной (Russia has stepped up electronic warfare on the border with Ukraine),” Radio Sputnik (state-owned news agency, news website platform and radio broadcast service), 25 January 2022.

https://radiosputnik.ria.ru/20220125/razvedka-1769436630.html

Russia’s Western Military District (WMD) has deployed a new battalion of electronic warfare systems in Belgorod Region, which borders on Ukraine, Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported on 25 January.

“A separate electronic warfare battalion became part of the Vislenskaya [3rd] Motorized Rifle Division of the Western Military District. Subdivisions of the new military unit are deployed in Belgorod Region,” the Western Military District said…According to Colonel General Alexander Zhuravlyov, the battalion’s addition to the division “will protect significant sites, increase the reconnaissance capabilities of the formation, and reduce the time it takes to obtain necessary information”…

Source: Bogdan Stepovoy, Roman Kretsul, Andrey Fedorov, “Ценность помех: в Западном округе создают батальоны радиоэлектронной борьбы (The Value of Jamming: Electronic Warfare Battalions Are Being Created in The Western Military District),” Izvestiya (large circulation Russian newspaper), 2 February 2022. https://iz.ru/1285283/bogdan-stepovoi-roman-kretcul-andrei-fedorov/tcennost-pomekh-v-zapadnom-okruge-sozdaiut-batalony-radioelektronnoi-borby

Electronic warfare battalions will be formed as part of several divisions of the Western Military District. The new units will protect troops, socially significant sites, and industrial facilities from strikes by precision-guided munitions. The battalions are equipped with complexes capable of suppressing enemy GPS systems, communications and navigation. The first such military unit was formed in Belgorodskaya Province and became part of the 3rd Guards Motorized Rifle Division. Experts note that this is an effective defense along the Russian border…

The battalions will be equipped with Zhitel, Leyer-3 and Borisoglebsk-2 electronic warfare systems can conduct electronic intelligence and suppress the operation of communication and navigation systems, military expert Aleksey Leonkov told Izvestiya…

“Operating as part of a division, the systems can carry out reconnaissance and jam sources of communication and control, as well as transmit the coordinates of aviation and artillery targets for strikes,” said Leonkov. “Each of them has its own specialization. The R-330Zh Zhitel jammer is designed to detect, find and jam signals and satellite communication stations, as well as navigation systems, including GPS. Such actions prevent UAVs, cruise missiles and other PGM from orienting themselves on the ground when striking… The Leyer-3 complex includes three Orlan-10 drones, which are used to jam cellular GSM communications… The main task of “Borisoglebsk-2” is the detection and suppression of various communication channels, including radio navigation systems.

Source: Vitaly Orlov, “«Леер» спас казахстан от сползания в пропасть (‘Leer’ Saved Kazakhstan from Sliding into the Abyss),” Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer (weekly newspaper focusing on military and defense industry complex issues), 25 January 2022.  https://vpk-news.ru/articles/65512

On January 12, the Vietnamese edition of Soha published information about the use of Leer-3 electronic warfare systems by the CSTO peacekeeping contingent in Kazakhstan. According to the authors, this capability was one of the decisive factors in ensuring the successful outcome of the counter-terrorist operation of the Kazakh security forces.  “There is no doubt that the use of the Leer-3 system not only severed communications between the combat groups and their foreign controllers, but also provided Kazakh security forces their geolocation data” the report says. The loss of a unified command and control by the terrorists and their inability to coordinate actions led to a completely natural result – the elimination of combat groups…

New drones capable of replacing cell towers have successfully passed the combat test program on the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic and have been officially adopted by the Russian Armed Forces. They have the ability to send audio and SMS messages to subscribers, and in the near future it is planned to add the ability to transfer video files. Since 2015, the drones that were part of the Leer complex have successfully suppressed base stations, but could not effectively resist 3G and 4G networks, which in turn created certain difficulties when interacting with smartphones. In modernized drones, these problems are solved. They “jam” the base stations, taking their place and becoming their virtual twins.

According to Denis Kuskov, CEO of the analytics company Telecom Daily, the “fake base station” created by the drone, unnoticed by the user, intercepts traffic and connection control, depriving him of the ability to connect to another base station. An operator controlling an unmanned aerial vehicle as part of the RB-341V Leer-3 gets the opportunity to generate calls and SMS messages to all subscribers within its coverage area…

Image Information:

Image: RB-341V Leer-3 with Orlan-10 UAV.
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-QX8bGpH/0/X3/i-QX8bGpH-X3.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Image: Orlan-10 UAV of the RB-341V Leer-3.
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-JRLBkqD/0/X3/i-JRLBkqD-X3.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Detrimental to Turkey

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Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

“… conflict… poses a significant risk to the Turkish defense industry.”

The accompanying articles highlight that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine poses significant risks to Turkey’s already troubled economy, energy security, and defense industry regardless of Turkey’s position in this conflict as it balances its NATO obligations with its relations with Russia.  According to the first article from globally read security news site al-Monitor, the war will have crippling consequences for the Turkish economy since Russia is Turkey’s key economic partner in many sectors, including tourism, construction, and energy.  The second article from anti-Turkish government daily Sözcü states that sanctions targeting the Russian banking system will negatively impact Russian projects in Turkey, including the construction of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant that Turkey contracted to a Russian company for development.  The war in Ukraine will also make trade routes in the region insecure and negatively impact Turkey’s economic interests and trade with other countries in the region.  Furthermore, according to the Sözcü article, the war will likely disrupt the flow of natural gas to Turkey, leading to an energy crisis since Russia is the largest natural gas supplier to Turkish markets.  The two countries have nearly completed the construction of two natural gas pipelines carrying Russian natural gas to Turkey and some European countries.

The third article from independent Turkish news agency Anka Haber Ajansı highlights that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will also have significant implications for the Turkish defense industry.  Defense cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey is significantly larger than Turkey’s widely reported TB-2 drone export to Ukraine.  Ukraine’s two major firms in aviation engine and manufacturing, Ukrainian Motor Sich and Ivchenko Progress, a Ukrainian state-owned company, provide engines for the Turkish defense company Baykar’s Bayraktar Akıncı drone and the Turkish Aerospace Industries’ T929 ATAK 2 attack helicopter.  Turkey is also building a MilGem-class corvette for the Ukrainian navy, which the article notes, is one of the biggest exports for the Turkey’s defense industry.  The article points out that the conflict will hinder Turkey’s ability to sustain the supply of subsystems and products to its defense industry from Ukraine.

Source:

Amberin Zaman,“Russian invasion of Ukraine would spell more economic turbulence for Turkey,”al-Monitor (a globally read security news site with regionally based reporting),07 February 2022. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/02/russian-invasion-ukraine-would-spell-more-economic-turbulence-turkey

War would bring Turkey under intense pressure from its Western allies to join putative sanctions against Russia, a critical trading partner and supplier of natural gas. Turkey will do its best to remain neutral, as signaled anew by Erdogan in comments to reporters en route home from Kyiv.

Ukraine has bought at least 20 drones from Turkey since 2018 and has used one only once in combat against Russian-backed separatists in Donbas in October 2021, eliciting growls from Moscow.

However, Turkey’s worries go beyond having to balance its NATO commitments with Russia, a key economic partner and since 2016 security partner in Syria. An actual war could have crippling consequences for Turkey’s battered economy.

In Ukraine, Turkey’s flourishing defense cooperation would likely suffer in a Russian attack as well.

Recent deals between Turkey and Ukraine include the supply of gas turbines for Turkish-designed naval vessels by Ukraine’s Zorya Mashproekt. Ukraine has ordered four of the MilGem class corvettes for itself.

Tourism, which Erdogan is banking on to help with an economic recovery ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections that are scheduled to be held by 2023, is also at risk.

… At best, Turkey can provide the two sides with “an optional diplomatic channel of communication” through which their respective messages are relayed.

Source: Dünya Taşlardan,“Rusya-Ukrayna krizi Türkiye’yi nasıl etkiler? (How does the Russia-Ukraine crisis affect Turkey?),”Sözcü (an anti-Turkish government daily),22 January 2022. https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2022/dunya/rusya-ukrayna-krizi-turkiyeyi-nasil-etkiler-6904478/

A possible war may involve significant losses for Turkey. First of all, if there is a war situation in the Black Sea, it will be difficult for tourists to come from both Russia and Ukraine this summer. Another problem is that Turkey meets most of its wheat needs from Russia and Ukraine. Since the war situation will also affect these imports, there may be rapid price hikes in food products…

In case of war, natural gas pipelines such as TurkStream and BlueStream in the Black Sea, which seem to be an important source of income for Russia, may also be attacked. Such a case may lead to a natural gas crisis in Turkey. By inviting both the Ukrainian and Russian presidents to Turkey, Turkey is actually signaling that it will remain neutral in this crisis with its mediation offer…

Turkey does not recognize and does not implement the sanctions imposed by the USA and EU countries on Russia. In this sense, we can say that there is an understanding and cooperation between the two countries. Although Turkey may not implement the Russian sanctions, especially the sanctions that would be applied in the banking system will negatively affect the Russian projects in Turkey. The construction of Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant may be delayed.

Since there will be no dollar circulation, Russia may have to pause its projects. Again, as the Black Sea will become a war zone, the use of commercial roads will be difficult, which will be reflected in the prices.

Source: Arda Mevlütoğlu,“Turkey – Ukraine Defense Cooperation In Russia’s Crosshairs?,”Anka Haber Ajansı (an independent Turkish news agency based in Ankara),06 February 2022. https://ankahaber.net/AnkaReview/Columnists/turkeyukraine_defense_cooperation_in_russias_crosshairs_73570

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky signed several agreements on Feb. 3, during Erdogan’s visit to Kyiv. The deals included a free trade agreement and a pact on cooperation in advanced technologies, aviation, and space…

Turkey’s sale of armed drones to Ukraine has come under harsh criticism by Russia. The TB2, however, is not the only subject of the rapidly enhancing defense industry cooperation between Kyiv and Ankara. Ukraine has become a preferred supplier for Turkey, especially for engines. A potential conflict, therefore, poses a significant risk to the Turkish defense industry…

Ukraine has two major firms in aviation engine design and manufacturing, Motor Sich and Ivchenko Progress…

The Bayraktar TB2’s manufacturer, Baykar Savunma. has developed a strategic reconnaissance/surveillance and strike drone that is designated Bayraktar Akinci. The Akinci can be powered by various types of turboprop engines, among them the Ivchenko Progress AI-450T… Baykar Savunma signed another deal with Motor Sich for the MS500 engine for the Akinci drone.

The drones are not the only area of engine procurement from Ukraine. Turkish Aerospace Industries (TA) signed a contract with Motor Sich for the TV3-117 turboshaft engines last June for use with the prototypes of the T929 ATAK 2 next-generation attack helicopter project. The Ukrainian company is also offering the same engine for the T925 10-ton class general-purpose helicopter project of TA.

Marine gas turbine specialist Zorya Mashproekt has become a candidate for supplying gas turbines for Turkish-designed naval vessels, mainly for the MilGem class corvettes… The MilGem sale to the Ukrainian Navy is one of the biggest defense exports of the Turkish defense industry…

An armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine poses a major risk for sustaining the supply of subsystems and products to Turkey. The level of risk depends on the scale of the conflict.

In a limited-scale conflict scenario, where the clashes occur in and around the Donbas region, there is a lower risk of Ukrainian defense industry facilities being targeted by Russian armed forces…

The second scenario is a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian armed forces. This scenario is the worst for Turkey and the region. In such a case, defense industry facilities as well as strategic industrial and infrastructure elements would be primary targets for the Russian military. The destruction of manufacturing facilities as well as the loss of skilled personnel would deal a devastating blow to the Ukrainian defense industry as well as to Turkish defense projects.

There may definitely be other scenarios involving intervention by external actors, diplomatic resolution, or various types of armed conflict. However, one thing is certain: a conflict of any type or scale would be a worst-case scenario for Turkey.

Image Information:

Image: Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
]Source: Russian Presidential Executive Office, kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62936, via Wikimedia, https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vladimir_Putin_and_Recep_Tayyip_Erdogan_(2020-03-05)_03.jpg, Files from Kremlin.ru
|Attribution: CC-BY-4.0 | Russia photographs taken on 2020-03-05

Latest Russian Population Figures Show Continued Declines

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“… I believe that their results are unreliable, not trustworthy. The current census is generally taken out of thin air…”

Recent data regarding Russian population trends are again a cause for concern.  The first excerpt from the independent, pro-business source RBC,analyzes recent population data from the Russian Statistic Agency Rosstat.  The article points out that the “natural” Russian population declined by 1.04 million people during 2021, resulting in a “permanent population” of 145.478 million people.  The article stresses that the decline continued “for the fourth year in a row” for a total decrease of 1.4 million people.  The article quotes a Russian medical official who claims that the “high level of population decline is associated with ‘super-mortality from COVID’—in the form of direct causes or concomitant diseases.”  This article concludes by citing expert officials who assert that “excess mortality… would have a long-term negative impact on the Russian economy.”

Russian population figures have often been a source of contention.  The Russian government conducted a nationwide census in late 2021, and while the official results will not be released until later in 2022, some Russian sources are already beginning to question the validity of the census numbers.  The second excerpt from the moderate and popular Svobodnaya Pressa claims that “the 2021 census is 100% fiction.”  After providing a brief history of how census data has been collected and manipulated in the past, the article quotes a Russian academic who says “the current census is generally taken out of thin air.”  The article includes anecdotal evidence that suggests many Russians did not participate in the recent census.  If there is truth to the quote that “demography is destiny,” then Russia faces an uncertain and potentially challenging future unless it can address its population decline.

Source:

Ivan Tkachev, “Естественная убыль населения в России за год превысила 1 млн человек (The natural population decline in Russia for the year exceeded 1 million people),” RBC (independent, pro-business source), 28 January 2022. https://www.rbc.ru/economics/28/01/2022/61f3bbaa9a794767f04fdaa7

The natural population decline in 2021 for the first time in the history of the modern Russian Federation reached 1.04 million people. The last time the indicator approached this level was in 2000. The main reason was the pandemic. As of January 1, 2022, the permanent population of Russia amounted to 145.478 million people, having decreased over the year by almost 693 thousand people (minus 0.5%)…. In general, the decline in the population of Russia is recorded for the fourth year in a row. During this period, the population of the country decreased by 1.4 million people, follows from the data of Rosstat….

A high level of population decline is associated with the “supermortality from COVID” – in the form of direct causes or concomitant diseases, Kalabikhina emphasizes…

… Both ACRA and the VEB Institute emphasized that excess mortality (demographic footprint) would have a long-term negative impact on the Russian economy.

Source: Ivan Rybin, “Русский миллиард: Перепись населения обернулась очередной фальшивкой (Russian billion: Population census turned into another fake),” Svobodnaya Pressa (moderate, popular source), 9 February 2022. https://svpressa.ru/society/article/324647/

… On February 9, 1897, 125 years ago, the first general population census was held in the Russian Empire. Prior to this, the state was limited to administrative and police accounting, that is, it deduced figures practically “from the lantern.” Today, in the 21st century, the authorities of the Russian Federation have returned to the vicious practice of autocracy, no one believes the data of 2021….

… However, what is happening today is even worse….  How many of us at the moment – in fact, it is not clear.  But obviously not 146 million people, the 2021 census is 100% fiction

“I also had complaints about previous censuses, I believe that their results are unreliable, not trustworthy.  The current census is generally taken out of thin air,” said Grigory Yudin, a sociologist and professor at the Moscow Higher School of Social and Economic Sciences.

“We don’t know how many people we have. Serious demographers say that there are actually 90 million of us.  I have two female students who were engaged in the population census in different parts of Moscow.  One counted 6.5 thousand people in her area, and the other – 8.5 thousand.  Where there are 6.5 thousand, they said to write down 10 thousand people, and where there are 8.5 thousand, they ordered to write down 12 thousand.  Thus, in these areas, a population of 30% was attributed.  It seems that this situation was also throughout Russia,” said the famous historian Andrei Fursov back in 2012.

“I conducted a roll call in my social circle, and it is large, and on my FB page, not a single person was revealed who would have seen a live census taker.  Those who answered that they participated in the census did it on their own through the State Services website, including me.  And this, of course, does not correlate in any way with the data announced by the organizers – more than 99% of the population took part in the census…” said political scientist Alexander Kynev.  The author of these lines also has a large social circle, and completely similar data.  No one came to anyone, to his friends, acquaintances, relatives, too….

Russia’s Increasingly Visible Military Presence in Mali

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Map showing Russia and Mali.

Map showing Russia and Mali.

“‘You speak of mercenaries, it’s your business. For us, they are Russian instructors,’ said the Malian official.”  

Although Mali has longstanding military ties with France, Russia is filling the void left in the region following France’s withdrawal of forces from Mali.  According to a recent French-language article in tvmonde.com, Russian personnel have replaced French troops at a base in Timbuktu.  The article further suggests there may be up to 400 Russians in Mali operating as military instructors.

The article contends there is also growing confirmation of Russia’s Wagner Group in Mali, implying that the Russians are, in fact, mercenaries rather than regular armed forces.  According to the article, a Malian official in Timbuktu noted mercenaries were what outsiders might call the Russian troops, but from the Malian perspective all that matters is that the Russians are instructing Malian soldiers.  Meanwhile, according to a 12 January report in Russian-language Interfax military news.com, Russia denies any government role in Wagner Group activities in Mali and considers the company as having the right to independently pursue business interests in Mali.

The tvmonde.com article also notes that France and UN forces in Mali remain suspicious of the Russian presence and have reportedly conducted flights over the Timbuktu base hosting the Russians.  The article states that this angered Russia and caused Mali to request that France discontinue flights over the base.

Source:

“Mali: les Russes présentés comme des instructeurs de plus en plus nombreux (Mali: Russians presented more and more as instructors),” information.tv5monde.com 7 January 2021. https://information.tv5monde.com/afrique/mali-les-russes-presentes-comme-des-instructeurs-de-plus-en-plus-nombreux-439418#:~:text=Un%20des%20responsables%20maliens%20a,notre%20camp%20militaire%20de%20Sofara.&text=Mais%20un%20influent%20%C3%A9lu%20d,%C3%AAtre%20tu%C3%A9%20des%20mercenaires%20russes%22

Many Russian instructors have been deployed in Mali in recent weeks, especially on the Timbuktu base (north) recently left by French forces, said Malian military officials. One of these officials responded in the affirmative to the possibility that these instructors now number about 400 across the country.

The apparent strengthening of cooperation with Russia coincides with the reconfiguration of the French forces and the planned reduction of the Barkhane anti-jihadist force, which will drop from around 5,000 soldiers in the Sahel in the summer of 2021 to around 3,000 in the summer of 2022. Barkhane recently handed over three bases in the north to the Malians, the most recent in Timbuktu in mid-December. Russian instructors recently arrived in Timbuktu to accompany the delivery of Russian helicopters, a Malian official said. Another Malian official, also on condition of anonymity, confirmed the presence of “Russian military instructors in several parts of Mali. You speak of mercenaries, it’s your business. For us, they are Russian instructors,” said the chief official.

Source: “Москве неизвестно, сколько граждан РФ, сотрудников ЧВК “Вагнер”, находятся в Мали” (“Moscow does not know how many citizens of the Russian Federation and employees of Wagner PMC are in Mali),” Interfax militarynews.ru (Russian language news service), 12 January 2022. https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=564129&lang=RU

As a high-ranking diplomat stressed, “the officials of the Russian Federation have nothing to do with the activities of our private companies. This is capitalism. Everyone earns as they can,” he added. The interlocutor provided a negative answer to the question of whether, in principle, a register of Russian citizens in Mali is maintained.

Image Information:

Image: Map showing Russia and Mali
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mali_Russia_Locator.svg
Attribution: [CC x 2.0]

Russia Highlighting Use of “Cube” and “Lancet” Loitering Munitions in Syria

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ZALA Lancet loitering munition.

ZALA Lancet loitering munition.

“…government tests of the KYB loitering munition have been completed, and the results of the tests are considered positive… it was recommended that the Russian army be armed with this new type of strike attack drone…”

As reported in the accompanying December 2021 article from Russia’s Arabic-language media outlet RT Arabic, the KYB-UAV “kamikaze drone” (also referred to as KUB-BLA or “Cube”) has passed government field tests and is now ready for procurement by Russian forces, which is expected to begin this year.  The KYB-UAV is made by ZALA AERO, a subsidiary of the Kalashnikov Concern, itself a subsidiary of Rostec.  The KYB-UAV was first made public at Abu Dhabi’s 2019 weapons expo (IDEX-2019).  In December 2020, Rostec’s CEO explained that the KYB, along with a more advanced ZALA AERO loitering munitions platform called the Lancet, distinguishable by its double x-shaped tail, had both been tested in Syria that year.  A documentary that aired last December on the state-owned Russian-language news channel Russia 24 includes an interview with a purported Russian Lancet operator who oversaw more than 40 strikes in Syria, including a pair of targeted assassinations in Hama Province in April 2020.  Recently, Russian state television networksfeatured several clips of Lancets being used in Syria to target rebel positions and infrastructure.  As the article from the Syrian opposition news network Shaam News Network notes, a recent clip shows a Lancet targeting a small oil refinery in rural Hama Province.    However, the accuracy of Syrian opposition media reports on these platforms is limited, given the difficulty in distinguishing them from other weapons, and because Iranian and Syrian government forces operate similar, though more rudimentary, kamikaze drones. 

Source:

“مصدر روسي يعلن إنجاز اختبارات الدرون الانتحاري كوب


(Russian Source Announces Success of ‘Cube’ Suicide Drone Tests),” RT Arabic (Russian Arabic-language news network), 16 December 2021. https://tinyurl.com/2p86e54n

A source close to the Russian Ministry of Defense said that government tests of the KYB loitering munition have been completed, and the results of the tests are considered positive. The source added: “As a result of these tests, it was recommended that the Russian army be armed with this new type of strike attack drone.” The source indicated that the delivery of these drones to the armed forces will most likely start in 2022.

Source:

“الدفاع الروسية تستعرض مسيرات لانسيت الانتحارية بمقاطع تظهر استخدامها بسوريا

(Russian Defense Ministry Displays Use of ‘Lancet’ Suicide UAV in Video Clip from Syria),” Shaam News Network (Syrian opposition news network), 26 December 2021. https://tinyurl.com/bddd8f9p

The Russian Ministry of Defense published a video clip showing the use of “Lancet” Russian suicide drones, which it said shows the destruction of a small oil refinery factory belonging to the rebel factions in the countryside of Hama. Sham News Network was unable to determine the target location. Video clips were also posted on the telegram channel of Russia-1 journalist Alexander Rogatkin. The full version will be shown on Saturday on the Russia 24 TV channel. The journalist explained on his channel: “A small oil refinery belonging to Syrian militants was destroyed in the Hama countryside with the help of two munitions by the special operations forces of the Russian Armed Forces. It is assumed that Lancet drones were used.”

Source:  “Война Дронов – 2021 (Drone Wars – 2021),” Russia 24 (State-owned Russian-language news channel), 25 December 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Me7shKOc0c

Image Information:

Image: ZALA Lancet loitering munition.
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin Military Blog, https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Military/ARMY-2019-Exhibition-pavilions/i-HwGLLZC/A
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Copyright-policy

Russian Orthodox Church Strengthening Its Position in Africa

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St Sergius Russian Orthodox Church in Noordwyk, Midrand, South Africa.

St Sergius Russian Orthodox Church in Noordwyk, Midrand, South Africa.

“…The expansion of the mission of the Russian Orthodox Church to Africa is an important ecclesiastical and political step…”

Even before open war broke out in late February, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine shook the international community of believers who share the Orthodox faith.  In 2019, the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople officially recognized and established the Orthodox Church of Ukraine.  The Kremlin and the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) interpreted this as weakening their influence in Ukraine, as well as furthering the divide between the Ecumenical Patriarchy in Constantinople and its counterpart in Russia.  Since then, the leadership of the ROC has been working to expand its influence in regions that have traditionally fallen under the mandate of those churches that support the Ecumenical Patriarch.  The accompanying excerpt from the pro-business Russian daily newspaper Kommersant describes how the ROC has recently made significant inroads among Orthodox believers in Africa at the expense of the Ecumenical Patriarchy.  The article does not make it clear whether or not the Kremlin is using the ROC as a soft-power tool in this case. 

The article begins by stating, “the Holy Synod accepted into the Russian Orthodox Church more than a hundred clerics of the Patriarchate of Alexandria from eight African countries.”  These clerics, according to the article, “came under the jurisdiction of the Moscow Patriarchate due to their categorical disagreement with the decision of the Patriarch of Alexandria to recognize the Orthodox Church of Ukraine.”  The article quotes a religious expert who asserts that “the expansion of the mission of the Russian Orthodox Church to Africa is an important ecclesiastical and political step.”  This expert concludes by stating that “Orthodoxy is developing quite dynamically in various states of the continent and attracts millions of people, [which will] strengthen the role of Moscow in the global Christian mission, despite all political crises.”

Source:

Pavel Korobov, “Русская православная церковь укрепила позиции в Африке (The Russian Orthodox Church has strengthened its position in Africa),” Kommersant (pro business Russian daily newspaper), 29 December 2021. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5154738

…On Wednesday, the Holy Synod accepted into the Russian Orthodox Church more than a hundred clerics of the Patriarchate of Alexandria from eight African countries. The clergy came under the jurisdiction of the Moscow Patriarchate due to their categorical disagreement with the decision of the Patriarch of Alexandria — he recognized the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, established by Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople. The expert is convinced that the decision of the Russian Orthodox Church will irritate the Patriarchs of Alexandria and Constantinople, but will lead to the strengthening of Moscow’s role in the global Christian mission….

…To date, at least a hundred parishes of the Patriarchate of Alexandria, headed by their pastors, have declared their desire to transfer to the bosom of the Russian Orthodox Church…. 

The head of the Center for the Study of Problems of Religion and Society at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Roman Lunkin, called the decision “echoes of the conflict” between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Patriarchate of Constantinople… “The expansion of the mission of the Russian Orthodox Church to Africa is an important ecclesiastical and political step,” says Mr. Lunkin. “The development of preaching among Africans has great prospects, Orthodoxy is developing quite dynamically in various states of the continent and attracts millions of people.” …In this regard, Mr. Lunkin speaks of “strengthening the role of Moscow in the global Christian mission, despite all political crises: Irritation of Constantinople and the Patriarchate of Alexandria is inevitable.”

Image Information:

Image: St Sergius Russian Orthodox Church in Noordwyk, Midrand, South Africa.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:St_Sergius_Russian_Orthodox_Church,_Noordwyk,_Midrand.jpg
Attribution: CCA SA 4.0 Intl

Russians View Military Increasingly Favorably as Extortion and Other Negative News Go Underreported

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“… Extortion from contract soldiers in distant garrisons is a fairly typical picture for Russia.”

Domestic attitudes toward the Russian military have improved significantly over the past decade.  As the first excerpt from the official Russian news agency TASS points out, during the December meeting of senior military leaders, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu “stressed that Russian citizens highly value the activities of the military department.  According to polls, more than 90% of Russians are confident that the military is capable of protecting them, and 88% are proud of the army and navy.” 

Some of this improvement may be because of policies implemented by the Kremlin, which restrict negative reporting about the Russian military, including recent news about extortion of Russian soldiers.  The second accompanying excerpt from the mostly independent Russian news outlet Nezavisimaya Gazeta describes an adverse incident “where contract servicemen (including officers) were imposed tribute by criminals… in the military garrison in Yurga (Kemerovo region).”  As the article points out, even though this example of military extortion was “actively discussed in social networks and on internet portals,” official media almost completely ignored it.  The article quotes military journalist Viktor Baranets, who asserts, “extortion from contract soldiers in distant garrisons is a fairly typical picture for Russia.  There have been several cases in my memory when local criminals actually impose tribute on military personnel.”  The article concludes by citing a recent senior military investigator who claims that in 2021, “the number of crimes against the order of military service has increased.” 

Not surprisingly, as the third excerpt indicates, shortly after this article was published, a senior official in the Department of Information and Mass Communications of the Ministry of Defense wrote a letter to Nezavisimaya Gazeta claiming that the story was false.  According to this official, “inspections carried out by the command and law enforcement agencies in the military units of the Yurga garrison did not reveal a single case of extortion of money from servicemen in 2021.”

Source:

Stanislav Krasilnikov, “Миротворцы и спасатели: главные достижения армии России за 2021 год (Peacekeepers and rescuers: the main achievements of the Russian military in 2021),” TASS (official Russian news agency), 29 December 2021. https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/13314335

Summing up the results of the activities of the Russian Armed Forces in 2021, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stressed that Russian citizens highly appreciate the activities of the military department. According to polls, more than 90% of Russians are confident that the army is capable of protecting them, and 88% are proud of the army and navy. 

Source: Vladimir Mukhin, “Беспредел в гарнизонах искоренить не удалось (The chaos in the garrisons could not be eradicated),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (mostly independent Russian news source), 26 December 2021. https://www.ng.ru/armies/2021-12-26/2_8336_army.html

At the events of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation dedicated to summing up the results of the activities of the army and navy, official reports available in the public domain this year did not provide data on the state of military discipline and law and order among personnel….  The media are discussing the scandal in the military garrison in Yurga (Kemerovo region), where the contract servicemen (including officers) were imposed tribute by representatives of the local criminals.

The situation in the military garrison in Yurga is actively discussed in social networks and on Internet portals…, about the alleged extortions from contract servicemen (including officers), organized by representatives of the local criminals. According to media reports, the military are threatened, they are blackmailed, while they are afraid to go to law enforcement agencies and “pay tribute without complaint.” …One of the gangster leaders, whose photo is quoted on the portal, allegedly “even has a whole list of almost a hundred military men who regularly pay tribute to him.” 

…This situation seems wild. Viktor Baranets, a member of the Public Council under the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, shares his concern… “Extortion from contract soldiers in distant garrisons is a fairly typical picture for Russia. There have been several cases in my memory when local criminals actually impose tribute on military personnel.” 

…In July 2021, summing up the work of military investigators in the first half of the year, the then acting head of the GVSU, Lieutenant General of Justice Sergei Fedotov, said that “in the field of military service, the number of crimes against the order of military service has increased….” 

Source: A. Volosatov, “Ответ Министерства обороны РФ на материал ‘Беспредел в гарнизонах искоренить не удалось’ (Response of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation to the material ‘Lawlessness in garrisons could not be eradicated,),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 28 December 2021. https://www.ng.ru/letter/2021-12-28/2_8338_answer.html

In the material of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, published on December 27… provided about the allegedly unsatisfactory state of law and order in the military garrisons associated with extortion of money from servicemen… This article is absolutely untrue. The inspections carried out by the command and law enforcement agencies in the military units of the Yurga garrison did not reveal a single case of extortion of money from servicemen in 2021….

Deputy Head of the Department of Information and Mass Communications of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation A. Volosatov

Russian NBC Defense Troops Increase Thermobaric Munition Capabilities

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TOS-2 ‘Tosochka’ Flamethrower.

TOS-2 ‘Tosochka’ Flamethrower.

TOS-1A ‘Solntsepek’ Flamethrower.

TOS-1A ‘Solntsepek’ Flamethrower.

“The Defense Ministry has told Izvestiya that three new battalions will be formed in the Southern Military District, armed with the TOS-1A Solntsepek and TOS-2 Tosochka heavy flamethrowers.”

“Unmanned aerial vehicles will permit the rapid destruction of targets in urban area, and also targets that are hidden in terrain folds or are located in fortifications…They are needed in order to destroy important facilities in the enemy tactical rear – for example, munitions and fuel dumps, communications centers, and unarmored vehicles, in which command posts are based…”

The accompanying excerpted articles from Russian government news service TASS and pro-Kremlin daily newspaper Izvestiya discuss Russian efforts to increase thermobaric munition capabilities in the NBC Defense Troops.  Although thermobaric munitions, referred to as “flamethrowers” in the Russian military, exist elsewhere (artillery, aviation, etc.) in the Russian Armed Forces, thermobarics are considered primarily an NBC Defense Troops’ weapon.  The TASS article features an interview with Aleksandr Smirnov, the General Director of Splav, the firm that produces the soon to be fielded TOS-2 “Tosochka” wheeled heavy flamethrower.  In the current structure of the Russian Ground Forces, shoulder-fired flamethrower squads and platoons may be present in the NBC defense companies of Russian maneuver brigades.   Company-sized flamethrower units are only present in the flamethrower battalions, in the NBC defense regiments of the Combined Arms Armies, Tank Army, and Army Corps.  The typical Russian flamethrower battalion consists of two companies of shoulder-launched flamethrowers, and one company of vehicle-launched heavy flamethrowers.  The typical heavy flamethrower company has 35 personnel; three TOS-1A ‘Solntsepek’ heavy flamethrowers, each with 24 220mm thermobaric rockets mounted on a T-72 chassis; and six TZM-T transporter/loader vehicles, which are also mounted on a T-72 chassis.  Izvestiya notes that the Southern Military District will increase its number of heavy flamethrower systems to 42 by 2024, with the intent of eventually having a heavy flamethrower battalion in each regiment by 2027, resulting in a six-fold increase in firepower from current capabilities.  Another edition of Izvestiya states that Russia is considering developing a UAV capable of dropping a thermobaric munition for the NBC Defense Troops.  Although Russia has not shown much interest in mounting weapons on small UAVs, this may be beginning to change as the Russian Ground Forces experimented with such a system—the “Lastochka” Complex—during Zapad-2021.

Source:

Milena Sineva and Dmitriy Fedyushko, “”Тосочка”, “Земледелие” и новые РСЗО: Глава “Сплава” о перспективах ракетной артиллерии РФ (‘Tosochka’, ‘Zemledeliye’, and New Multiple Rocket Launchers: The Chief of Splav on the Prospects for Russia’s Rocket Artillery),” TASS (government news service of the Russian Federation), 18 November 2021. https://tass.ru/interviews/12958773

Multiple rocket launchers are an integral component of Russia’s rocket and artillery forces, who directly support the Ground Troops on the battlefield. Since the appearance of the legendary BM-13 Katyusha, multiple rocket launchers have become much more modern in terms of their accuracy and are gradually catching up with operational-tactical systems. Aleksandr Smirnov, general director of the A.N. Ganichev Splav Science and Production Association (part of the Technodinamika holding company in the Rostec state corporation) discussed the latest advances in Russian rocket artillery with TASS …

What is being done now regarding work on the TOS-2 “Tosochka” heavy flamethrower system?

Joint testing is now under way at enterprises of the Rostec state corporation, in particular Splav and “Special Design Bureau” of the military division at Motovilikha Plants. The plan is to complete it by the end of the year.  The forces are looking forward to these machines. We are already training crews to operate the new system, because its engineering is radically different from the TOS-1A. We hope that the TOS-2 will be much in demand in our armed forces. As far as I know, when the system was first displayed during the parade on Red Square it sparked interest among foreign customers.

Are new projectiles in development for the TOS-2?

Yes, a new rocket has been developed. State tests are being conducted and an initial batch of prototypes has been made for troops to try out. We are also planning to complete all the testing of another munition for the TOS-2 this year. Its distinguishing feature is its longer range, and it can be used by the TOS-1A.

How can the TOS-1A and TOS-2A coexist on the battlefield?

They can do so just fine. Depending on the tactical environment, commanders will be able to employ either a weapon that moves on wheels or one that is on tracks.

When can we expect to see the TOS-2 on the world market?

The promotional materials for the weapon were drawn up this year. Bearing in mind foreign customers’ interest in the TOS-1A, we can safely predict a similar export potential for the TOS-2 because a number of its specifications have been improved, such as longer range, a wheeled chassis, and better ergonomics.

Could the Tosochka be mounted on other chassis types?It is technically possible, but not worthwhile. The artillery part is attached to a specific type of chassis.

Source: Aleksey Ramm and Bogdan Stepovoy, “ТОС уполномочен, юг страны усиливают тяжелыми огнеметами: В ЮВО сформируют сразу три батальона с системами «Солнцепек» и «Тосочка» (The TOS Is Be Empowered, South of the Country to Be Reinforced with Heavy Flamethrowers: Southern Military District To Form Three Battalions at Once With Solntsepek and Tosochka Systems),” Izvestiya (large-circulation pro-Kremlin daily newspaper), 15 November 2021.

https://iz.ru/1253152/aleksei-ramm-bogdan-stepovoi/tos-upolnomochen-iug-strany-usilivaiut-tiazhelymi-ognemetami

The Defense Ministry has told Izvestiya that three new battalions will be formed in the Southern Military District, armed with the TOS-1A Solntsepek and TOS-2 Tosochka heavy flamethrowers. They will cover the south of the country — the Caucasus, Crimea, and the border with Ukraine. According to Izvestiya’s sources they could also be deployed to the strategic western sector, The mobility of the Tosochka, which is mounted on wheels, enables it to travel hundreds of kilometers on public roads.

In Russia’s army the TOS-1 is in service with individual units of the radiation, chemical, and biological defense troops. Sources say that delivery of the flamethrowers to the Southern Military District will be a phased process. During the first phase — up to 2024 — their numbers in existing units will be increased to 42 systems.

During the second phase the number of flamethrowers is expected to increase gradually as additional subunits are created in the radiation, chemical, and biological defense regiments of combined-arms armies. The plan is to create three new heavy flamethrower battalions by 2027, which will provide their groups of forces with a six-fold increase in firepower on what they have today…

Large-scale exercises with NATO ships and aircraft ended recently in the Black Sea region and there is unrest in Ukraine and on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. In such circumstances the southern strategic sector is begging to be beefed up, says military historian Aleksey Khlopotov.

“Heavy flamethrower systems proved their effectiveness during the fighting in Syria and Iraq,” he said to Izvestiya. “They’re indispensable when eliminating an enemy who is hunkered down in well-fortified positions or buildings or in mountains. The Solntsepek and Tosochka will complement each other. The tank armor of the former means it can be used in forward positions and deliver strikes from close range. The Tosochka, which has a wheeled chassis, will be good when conducting mobile operations.”The wheeled chassis gives a number of advantages, Aleksey Khlopotov said. In terms of speed when traveling and on the move the TOS-2 is comparable to ordinary cars, which makes it particularly effective in places with extensive road networks and also in steppe and desert terrain and areas of stony ground.  “The wheeled-chassis system is cheaper to produce and service and has a longer operating life — they’re cheaper to maintain,” Khlopotov concluded…

Source: Anton Lavrov and Bogdan Stepovoy, “Летящей наводкой: российская армия заказала беспилотные огнеметчики: Новая система позволит наносить по противнику удары термобарическими и зажигательными бомбами (Using the Flying Artillery Spotter: The Russian Army Has Ordered Unmanned Flamethrowers: New System Will Permit the Conduct of Strikes against the Enemy using Thermobaric and Incendiary Bombs),” Izvestiya, (large-circulation pro-Kremlin daily newspaper), 5 October 2021.

https://iz.ru/1230786/anton-lavrov-bogdan-stepovoi/letiashchei-navodkoi-rossiiskaia-armiia-zakazala-bespilotnye-ognemetchiki

Flamethrower Drones will appear in the Russian Army. The Ministry of Defense has approved the performance specifications for new weapon systems for the Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defense Troops, sources in the Military Department told Izvestiya. In particular, unmanned aerial flamethrower systems ended up on the list of new weapons. They will be manufactured based upon small aircraft or quadcopters. The UAVs will be able to destroy the enemy using compact thermobaric or incendiary charges. The experts emphasize that those weapon systems will become especially dangerous in conditions of an urban engagement and also during the destruction of enemy reinforcements. They will help to save the lives of peaceful residents and soldiers in street engagements…

The NBC defense units have weapon systems to accomplish any missions. Among them – are handheld “Shmel” rocket-propelled flamethrowers and “Buratino”, “Solntsepek”, and “Tosochka” heavy flamethrower systems. But the NBC Defense Troops will get the full spectrum of weapons with the appearance of the flame-thrower unmanned aerial vehicles, Military Expert Viktor Murakhovskiy told Izvestiya.  “Unmanned aerial vehicles will permit the rapid destruction of targets in urban area, and also targets that are hidden in terrain folds or are located in fortifications…They are needed in order to destroy important facilities in the enemy tactical rear – for example, munitions and fuel dumps, communications centers, and unarmored vehicles, in which command posts are based…”

Precision strikes using incendiary and thermobaric munitions will permit the minimization of collateral damage during the course of combat operations, he pointed out.  “Those unmanned aerial vehicles will be invaluable in house-to-house fighting”, Viktor Murakhovskiy concluded. “They will permit us to avoid the destruction of structures, which are not related to the military infrastructure, and to also reduce losses among the peaceful population and servicemen. It is better to lose two drones or robots than one soldier.Small drones from the latest “Lastochka” Complex have already been tested in the role of strike UAVs at the “Zapad-2021” Strategic Exercises, which were conducted in September of this year. They dropped antipersonnel and hollow-charge bombs on the targets.  Small multicopters, which are capable of dropping small bombs with various warheads on targets, are being developed in Russia today. Those aircraft can hover over a target in order to achieve greater accuracy. The capability for a hollow-charge bomb to end up on a mockup of a tank was confirmed in tests. In the process, the flamethrower drones can be used to destroy and ignite larger facilities…

Image Information:

Image: TOS-2 ‘Tosochka’ Flamethrower.
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/Dress-rehearsal-of-2020-Moscow-Victory-Day-Parade/i-mJSph2x/0/8f6db545/X4/DressRehearsal-20062020-086-X4.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Copyright-policy

Image: TOS-1A ‘Solntsepek’ Flamethrower.
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/Dress-rehearsal-of-2020-Moscow-Victory-Day-Parade/i-g6NjHj7/0/b0e26385/X4/DressRehearsal-20062020-083-X4.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Copyright-policy

Respected Russian Academic Speculates on War in the Arctic

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“The Northern Fleet can only effectively counter American nuclear submarines in close proximity to its bases on the Kola Peninsula, and further to the East the adversary can operate more or less freely.”  

A recent article in the pro-Kremlin news outlet Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer sees the possibility of a military conflict breaking out in the Barents Sea region of the Arctic Ocean.  The author envisions a scenario emanating from a U.S. Navy freedom of navigation test of the Northern Sea Route (See: “Freedom of the Seas to Be Tested in Arctic?” OE Watch, April 2019). Well-known Russian political scientist Aleksandr Khramchikhin, Deputy Director of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, is the article’s author.  He has long argued that China is Russia’s primary security threat and that the United States is looking to the Global Strike Command to defeat Russia’s nuclear capability with non-nuclear strikes.  Khramchikhin lacks a military background, but his reasoning and commentary are respected.  Khramchikhin’s description of the Arctic operational environment includes scenarios of engagements that are narrow in their potential locations and application of forces.  Paratroop drops, submarine missile launches, fighter aircraft engagements, and ground force incursions with limited objectives seem to capture the nature of conflict, according the author.  He admits that “imagining a battle in this region is very difficult indeed.”

Source:

Aleksandr Khramchikhin, “Очень холодное поле боя: Война за акватории высоких широт может начаться с провокации на Северном морском пути (A very cold battlefield: A war for the high-latitude waters could begin with a provocation on the Northern Sea Route),” Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer (pro-government weekly focused on Russian military and military-industrial complex), 22 November 2021.  https://vpk-news.ru/articles/64758

Competition for the Arctic, possibly spilling into war over the region, is a subject at least two decades old.  As the Arctic ice melts, interest is growing fast in a region where near-free navigation, unfettered access to offshore hydrocarbons, and military operations are becoming possible. 

Nobody is planning to share out the Arctic lands, since they were claimed long ago.  This is about sharing the waters, where the picture is not quite so clear and the number of potential competitors is limited.  The air forces of Finland…and Sweden…have some potential but these countries do not directly border onto the Arctic Ocean so there is nothing for them to fight over.  Iceland does not have an air force so it has nothing to fight with, even if it wanted to. 

Canada’s forces…are generally somewhat feebler than Finland’s and Sweden’s, and are either stationed in the south of the country (on a similar latitude to Moscow) or are busy in various American wars in the Middle and Near East.  Canadian forces in the Arctic are purely symbolic, without even a proper northern regiment in total and armed with only light weapons.

The Danish Air Force is weaker even than the Canadian and is practically all stationed in Denmark itself, that is, on the Jutland peninsula and adjacent islands.  In Greenland there is only the Sirius ski patrol — 30 men, that is, a single platoon, and also armed with only light weapons.  One or two patrol boats are also based there.

So any involvement by Denmark and Canada in a fight for the Arctic is purely theoretical (regarding the military component of the fight).  Deployment of Canadian and Danish forces to the Arctic is in practice unrealistic — they are too few and anyway do not train for war on ice.  The most that Ottawa and Copenhagen could do is send to the Arctic a few warships (one or two submarines, three or four frigates from Canada and two or three frigates from Denmark) and to airfields in the Arctic — up to 10 or so warplanes (Canadian F-18A/Bs, Danish F-16A/Bs).  You cannot do much fighting with those.

Fairly large groups of US air and ground forces are stationed in Alaska.  They could capture Chukotka, where there are no Russian forces, with ease.  And the USAF could safely block the deployment to there of Russian contingents from Kamchatka, not to mention from the Vladivostok region.  Strange as it may seem, it would be easier for Russia to send Airborne Troops units to Chukotka from the European part of the country.  The Americans could in theory even land forces in Yakutiya (in the Tiksi area, for example).  True, Russian paratroopers could just as successfully turn up on the islands of Canada’s Arctic archipelago, which also have nothing and nobody to defend themselves with.  However, the point is that all these reciprocal assault landings are completely senseless and would create more problems for the protagonists than for the other side.  This is simply because an American expeditionary force in Chukotka and Yakutiya and a Russian one in northern Canada would be at a hopeless dead end with no chance of developing an offensive to the south, and with desperate supply issues.

The only place where potential “fighters for the Arctic” might come into direct contact is northern Europe.  The greater part of Norway’s air force…is stationed in the north of the country and in close proximity to the group of forces of Russia’s Northern Joint Strategic Command on the Kola Peninsula.  The Russian presence is of course more powerful, especially in terms of the two countries’ ability to grow their forces.  Imagining a battle in this region is very difficult indeed.  Between 1941 and 1943 on the entire gigantic Soviet-German front, the Arctic was the sole sector in which the Germans captured nothing, other than a few hundred square kilometers of lifeless tundra.  Imagining that the Norwegians will be more effective and successful than the Germans is, to put it mildly, hard.  It is even harder to imagine how the Norwegians’ NATO allies would come to their aid in the ice and snow.  On the other hand, in the fall of 1944 the Soviet army liberated only the Norwegian border county of Finnmark, and went no further.  The Supreme Command could not see any point in fighting for frozen mountains crisscrossed by fjords.  Modern-day Russia needs them even less.

It is practically impossible to conceive of an armed conflict in the Arctic over a disputed oil or gas field.  Hydrocarbons extraction in the region is a highly complex and expensive business, so no oil or gas company will start work on a deposit unless the legal status and national affiliation are settled.

Much more realistic is an incursion into Russia’s Arctic waters by American nuclear submarines, which from there could in theory fire Tomahawk cruise missiles at numerous military and economic targets in the Urals, Siberia, and the Far East.  The Northern Fleet can only effectively counter American nuclear submarines in close proximity to its bases on the Kola Peninsula, and further to the East the adversary can operate more or less freely.  In that case, the hopes lie with air rather than submarine defenses, that is, with eliminating the Tomahawks rather than their carriers.  But this kind of scenario could materialize only if matters get to the stage of full-scale war between Russia and the United States.

However, a dispute over “freedom of navigation” in peacetime cannot be discounted.  Washington believes that both Russia’s Northern Sea Route and Canada’s Northwest Passage are international waters in which civilian and military ships of any country may sail freely without the need to notify anybody.  A direct conflict between the United States and Canada, close allies, over the Northwest Passage is unlikely, and anyway, it is not greatly needed as a transport route (easier to take the Panama Canal).  The Northern Sea Route, which greatly shortens the time from Europe to Asia and back, is much more in demand.

On more than one occasion, American warships have sailed across the South China Sea, which Beijing regards as its own.  Matters have not yet reached the stage of direct confrontation with ships of the PLA, but it cannot be ruled out.  Similarly, nothing is stopping the Americans from just turning up and sending one or a number of warships through the Northern Sea Route without officially notifying Russia first.  Will Moscow be as restrained as Beijing?  Or will it require the Americans to scrupulously comply with Russian law and in the event of a refusal do what is necessary to head them off, including forcibly?  In that case, how far might the dispute go?  It is possible that Washington will allow us to find out, and very soon:  It badly wants to prove to the whole world and to itself as well that America can still do anything, including what others cannot.