Category Archives: OE Watch

Russian Views on Finland and Sweden Joining NATO

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NATO Secretary General meets with Ministers of Defense for Finland and Sweden, March 2022.

NATO Secretary General meets with Ministers of Defense for Finland and Sweden, March 2022.

“…Of course, this means the deterioration of our strategic position….” 

Russian reactions to the recent decision by Finland and Sweden to join NATO have ranged from mild concern to grave trepidation.  According to the excerpted article from the pro-Kremlin news outlet RIA Novosti, President Putin does not foresee any serious problems with this decision, provided that no “military infrastructure of the alliance is deployed in Finland and Sweden.”  If this were to occur, Putin stated that “Russia will be forced to respond in a similar way.”  Putin also asserted that there was no merit to “the thesis that Russia’s goal to push NATO forces away from its borders, preventing Ukraine from joining the alliance, led to the opposite, only from Sweden and Finland.”  Putin explained his rationale by claiming that “unlike Ukraine, Sweden and Finland do not persecute people who feel they are part of Russian culture.”

Other knowledgeable Russians have expressed greater concern over the further enlargement of NATO.  In an interview in the popular daily Moskovskiy Komsomolets, “Ruslan Pukhov, the Director of the Moscow Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), spoke about the military significance of NATO expansion in the northwest.”  According to Pukhov, this expansion “means the deterioration of our strategic position.”  He asserts that Russia will now “have to spend more on defense than before February this year [which will mean] that less money will be spent on infrastructure projects, healthcare, and education.”  Pukhov reviews Russia’s long history with these two countries, stating “both the Swedes and the Finns have already experienced the power of Russian weapons,” which resulted in “bad memories for them.”  He concludes that becoming members of NATO might tempt them to try to settle old scores, and that therefore Russia “can’t be weak.”

Source:

“Путин: Россия ответит в случае размещения баз НАТО в Швеции и Финляндии (Putin: Russia will respond in case of deployment of NATO bases in Sweden and Finland),” RIA Novosti (pro-Kremlin news outlet) 30 June 2022. http://RIA/Ru/20220629/Putin-1799133978.html

In Russia’s relations with Sweden and Finland, there are no such problems as with Ukraine, if they want to join NATO, let them join, but if the military infrastructure of the alliance is deployed in Finland and Sweden, Russia will be forced to respond in a similar way, Russian President Vladimir Putin said…

…He also called false and ‘having nothing to do with reality’ the thesis that Russia ‘s goal to push NATO forces away from its borders, preventing Ukraine from joining the alliance, led to the opposite, only from Sweden and Finland.  “For us, the membership of Finland and Sweden in NATO is not at all the same as the membership of Ukraine, these are completely different things.  They understand this very well.  No.  This is a completely different thing,” the Russian leader emphasized.  He noted that, unlike Ukraine, Sweden and Finland do not persecute people who feel they are part of Russian culture.

Source: Olga Bozheva, “Вступление Финляндии и Швеции в НАТО принесло России серьезные риски (The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO brought Russia serious risks),” Moskovskiy Komsomolets (popular, pro-Kremlin news organization), 5 July 2022. https://www.mk.ru/politics/2022/07/05/vstuplenie-finlyandii-i-shvecii-v-nato-prineslo-rossii-sereznye-riski.html

The process of accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO was continued.  On July 4, negotiations between these countries and the Alliance were completed in Brussels.  On July 5, the Foreign Ministers of Sweden and Finland signed the accession protocol at NATO Headquarters.  Ruslan Pukhov, Director of the Moscow Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), spoke about the military significance of NATO expansion in the northwest.

Now there are rather contradictory statements about the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO.  A number of political scientists say that this does not pose a serious danger to us.  Someone thinks that we need to strengthen the borders, up to the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons there.  What do you think their entry into the alliance means for us?

Of course, this means the deterioration of our strategic position.  And not because these countries suddenly became anti-Russian overnight – even before that they loved us like a dog with a stick.  However, they were not at least formally integrated into NATO structures, and accordingly, they behaved cautiously and correctly towards us.

…In any case, such a move by Stockholm and Helsinki does not lead to anything good.  And the one who says that their entry into NATO means practically nothing to us, he, I think, is disingenuous.

…This will force us to invest more financially in the arms race.  We’ve already gotten into it.  And now it doesn’t matter at all whether we did it ourselves or were dragged into it.  The score is on the scoreboard.  We will have to spend more on defense than before February this year.  This means that less money will be spent on infrastructure projects, healthcare, and education. There are no illusions here.

…Both the Swedes and the Finns have already experienced the power of Russian weapons… bad memories for them.  They still remember very well how they got hit in the teeth from us.  And if you suddenly forgot, so we can remind you….  So we can’t be weak.

Image Information:

Image: NATO Secretary General meets with Ministers of Defense for Finland and Sweden, March 2022
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/nato/51942155994
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Russia and China Look To Corner Bolivia’s Lithium Industry

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“China controls 80 to 90 percent of global capacity.  This is an extremely dominant position for a country at a time when everyone is trying to expand.”

Bolivia has some of the largest deposits of lithium in the world, a mineral with civilian and military applications.  As reported by the UK-based news outlet BBC Spanish, Russia, which possesses deep experience in mining strategic minerals, is one of the major contenders to win a globally strategic contract to extract much of Bolivia’s lithium. China is another contender. According to U.S. Government international broadcaster Voz de America, China already controls 80 to 90 percent of global lithium mining capacity.  Voz de America reports that there is international concern that China will consolidate its position as the most important lithium mining power, given China’s past use of economic interdependence as a weapon.  Russian or Chinese dominance over the lithium industry risks producing another raw material dependence on authoritarian competitors.

Source:

“La carrera por los codiciados ‘minerales del future’ que pueden crear gigantescas fortunas e influir en la seguridad nacional de los países (The race for the coveted ‘minerals of the future’ that can create gigantic fortunes and influence the national security of countries),” BBC Spanish (Spanish-language version of the popular British news outlet), 21 April 2022.  https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-61144362

Russia, one of the major exporters of gas and oil, demonstrated that due to the dependence of many countries on its exports, especially European ones, fuels are a weapon of war amid the harsh economic pressures that the U.S. and its allies have pursued in order to get the Kremlin to end the invasion of Ukraine… However, in the race for the metals that will play a crucial role in future economic development, Russia has its advantages: it is the world’s second largest exporter of cobalt, the second of platinum, and the third of nickel.

Source:  “Fuerte competencia por el litio de Latinoamérica para reducir dependencia de China (Strong competition for lithium from Latin America to reduce dependence on China),” Voz de America (U.S.-based, state-owned international broadcaster), 24 June 2022. https://www.vozdeamerica.com/a/fuerte-competencia-por-el-litio-de-latinoamerica-para-reducir-dependencia-de-china/6628644.html 

The race for lithium has led manufacturers of electric vehicles to enter into contracts directly with mining companies to ensure the supply of lithium… China not only exploits lithium but also exercises a dominant position in the entire supply chain for the manufacture of electric car batteries.  Most of the battery manufacturing is in China.  China controls 80 to 90 percent of global capacity.  This is an extremely dominant position for a country at a time when everyone is trying to expand.

Profile of a Joint Staff Officer in the PLA’s Northern Theater Command

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PLA Theater Commands.

PLA Theater Commands.

“No war is conducted in full accordance with the operational plan, and no war is conducted in full non-compliance with the operational plan.’  In Zeng Xing’s view, every exercise is a rehearsal of actual combat, and the examination paper is in the future battlefield, and he is standing on the track preparing for the war and running towards the goal of winning the war.”

Since joint theater commands replaced the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Army-dominated military regions in 2015, the new structures have experienced problems with officers lacking joint experience.  To address this ongoing issue, the PLA emphasizes education and realism in training.  In an article from its official newspaper, the PLA Daily describes a “model” officer, shedding light on aspects of the theater commands and their associated staff officers.  The profiled officer is Zeng Xing, a division chief from the Joint Staff Department of the Northern Theater Command. Many PLA articles, such as this one, omit officer rank.  According to the article, Zeng has been in the Army for 19 years and an operational staff officer for 15 of those years. 

In 2019, President Xi Jinping recognized Zeng as a model officer.  The article indicates that Zeng, like many Theater Command officers holding joint positions, must learn joint operations skills on the job and through self-education, including talking to officers in other services and arms.  While on the staff of the Northern Command, Zeng studies informationized warfare theory, joint operations, joint command, and the pilot joint operations command system on his own.  He also studies foreign military operations and joint command regulations to improve his skills and knowledge.

The article particularly highlights a recent command post exercise, during which Zeng was responsible for assessing the battlefield situation and formulating the operational plan.  It noted that Zeng and his staff worked to collect, analyze, and process information, develop the operational plan, and decide on operational methods (operational art and tactics).  Following that Zeng and his staff used a simulation to preview the operational plan and combat actions to inform the commander’s decision-making in the wargame.  As the PLA views it, this model of staff officer education, including common, contemporary doctrine-based education, self-study, and exercise simulations, will bridge the joint experience gap in China’s theater commands.

Source:

“北部战区联合参谋部某处处长曾星：向着打胜仗目标全力奔跑 (Zeng Xing, Department Chief in the Joint Staff Department of the Northern Theater Command: Running towards the goal of winning the war),” PLA Daily (official newspaper of the People’s Liberation Army), 13 July, 2022. http://www.mod.gov.cn/power/2022-07/13/content_4915489.htm

The joint operations staff is a bridge connecting commanders and combat troops. In the face of complex battlefield situations, they must always keep a clear head and clear thinking. During a command post exercise, Zeng Xing was responsible for planning and formulating the operational plan. On the basis of fully understanding the determination and intention of the commander, he led his comrades in arms to work overtime, skillfully collect, analyze and process information, derive the battle plan and preview the battle methods through the simulation system, and provide reference for the commander’s decision-making.

Image Information:

Image: PLA Theater Commands
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Theatres_of_PLA_en.svg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

Kremlin Easing Russian Citizenship for All Ukrainians

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President Vladimir Putin …signed a decree giving the right to all residents of Ukraine to obtain Russian citizenship in a simplified manner….

Six months before Russia reinvaded Ukraine, President Putin published a long historical article where he asserted that “Russians and Ukrainians are one people, a single whole.” (See: “Studying Putin’s History of Ukraine,” OE Watch, Sept 2021.)  Attempts to prove this assertion using force have thus far met with considerable Ukrainian resistance.  However, the Kremlin is also employing its administrative and economic prowess to make it easier for Ukrainians to become Russian citizens.  As the first excerpt from the pro-business site Kommersant points out, the Kremlin has recently enacted legislation “giving the right to allresidents of Ukraine to obtain Russian citizenship in a simplified manner.”  The article goes on to stress that this new streamlined procedure does “not require them to renounce Ukrainian or other citizenship.”  The article concludes by quoting a high-level Kremlin official, who claims that “from 2016 to 2020, about 978,000 citizens of Ukraine received Russian citizenship.”

The second excerpt from the popular, pro-Kremlin site Versiya describes how Russian authorities have set up “bus passport tours” to transport those Ukrainians who want to obtain Russian citizenship.  The buses pick up Ukrainians in regions not taken by Russia and transport them to those occupied by Russian forces.  According to the author, Russian “passportization of the Black Sea region is gaining momentum [where, for instance], “the number of residents of Odessa who have received Russian passports goes into the thousands.”  Many pensioners participate in these tours, since once they gain Russian citizenship, they “will be able to apply for Russian pensions (before recalculation – 10,000 rubles [$185] a month.”  The article asserts that there are many other categories eligible to receive monthly payments: “war veterans and children, the disabled…fathers and single mothers…pregnant women,” and that the Russian benefits far exceed those provided by the Ukrainian government.  The article concludes by pointing out that because of the conflict in and around “the Mykolaiv and Zaporozhye regions…, up to 85 percent of local residents lost their jobs… [and] there is only one hope – for Russia.”

Source:

Elena Rozhkova, Ksenia Veretennikova, “Гражданам Украины вышло упрощение (Citizens of Ukraine received a simplification),” Kommersant (pro-business site), 11 July 2022. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5458512

President Vladimir Putin on Monday signed a decree giving the right to all residents of Ukraine to obtain Russian citizenship in a simplified manner…. The expert believes that the updated decree will be relevant given the dynamically changing situation with the transition of Ukrainian territories under the control of Russian troops, as well as for Ukrainian emigrants living in Russia.

According to the new amendments, the possibility of obtaining Russian citizenship in a simplified manner now applies to all residents of Ukraine, and not only to the population of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) and regions of Ukraine controlled by the Russian armed forces. The document also notes that the presence of citizens in military service cannot serve as a basis for rejecting their applications for admission to Russian citizenship….

…The deputy [Mr. Zatulin] also clarified that residents of the DPR, LPR and Ukraine who receive Russian citizenship are not required to renounce their first citizenship and can have two passports…. 

…In June 2022, TASS, citing the press center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, reported that since April 2019, on the basis of this decree, more than 800 thousand people have acquired Russian citizenship. A year ago, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation Dmitry Kozak… stated that not only residents of Donbass, but also residents of the “rest of Ukraine” apply for Russian citizenship. According to him, from 2016 to 2020, about 978 thousand citizens of Ukraine received Russian citizenship…

Source: Alexander Artishchenko, “Туры за паспортами (Tours for passports),” Versia (popular, pro-Kremlin site), 3 August 2022. https://versia.ru/zhiteli-nikolaeva-i-odessy-ezdyat-oformlyat-rossijskoe-grazhdanstvo-v-xersonskuyu-oblast

Passportization of the Black Sea region is gaining momentum – Russian citizenship is issued in Kherson, Skadovsk, Genichesk, Nova Kakhovka, Oleshki, Belozerka and Gola Prystan. Despite the fact that it is rather difficult to leave the settlements controlled by Ukraine, besides, they mostly let pensioners through and, less often, women, the number of residents of Odessa who have received Russian passports goes into the thousands….

…Bus passport tours are organized from Zaporozhye and Nikolaev to Kherson – the final destinations of the trip are usually not advertised, but these buses are still allowed through at checkpoints without any problems. As explained by the deputy head of the military-civilian administration of the Kherson region Ekaterina Gubareva, any citizen of Ukraine, regardless of place of residence, even from Lviv, can apply for a Russian passport. … Together with Russian citizenship, pensioners will be able to apply for Russian pensions (before recalculation – 10,000 rubles a month, but in the fall they promise to recalculate and increase pensions, and accrue “from above” what they don’t receive in the summer). Moreover, war veterans and children, the disabled and some categories of beneficiaries are entitled to an allowance of 5,000 rubles per month. The allowance can be issued in the same place as passports. Gubareva separately noted, that monthly social payments are due to fathers and single mothers – at the rate of 10,000 rubles for each child. And payments to a full family for the maintenance of a minor child will amount to 4,000 rubles. Also, pregnant women can apply for social assistance (10,000 rubles – a one-time payment for pregnancy, and another 20,000 – at the birth of a child).

Russia’s social support is especially important, since Kyiv has actually curtailed the payment of pensions and social benefits in the Mykolaiv and Zaporozhye regions. As of early August, up to 85 percent of local residents lost their jobs – able-bodied families do not have the full opportunity to support their elderly and children. In the Odessa region, 70 percent of the inhabitants have lost their jobs (although pensions are still paid there). So there was only one hope – for Russia.

China Advancing Cooperation With Pakistan’s Navy in the Indian Ocean

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“To counter India, it is important for Pakistan to improve its navy by acquiring advanced equipment from Beijing and enhancing its capabilities through these drills…”

The accompanying three excerpted articles highlight different perceptions of the growing China-Pakistan strategic partnership in the Indian Ocean.  In July, China and Pakistan held their second “Sea Guardians” joint naval exercise off the coast of Shanghai.  The exercise was meant in part to test Pakistan’s new Type 054A/P warship—the country’s most advanced Chinese-built frigate.  The Pakistani navy commissioned its first Type 054A/P, the PNS Tughril, in January and the second one, PNS Taimur, in June.  Pakistan has a contract to receive two more at an unspecified date.  According to popular Indian daily The Hindu, the “Sea Guardians” exercises are paving the way for closer security cooperation between China and Pakistan in the Indian Ocean.  Chinese and Pakistani experts point out the need to safeguard strategic sea lanes used to transport energy and goods.  They also comment on Pakistan’s need “to ensure seaward defense, maintain peace, stability and balance of power in the Indian Ocean region.”  The Hong Kong-based semi-independent South China Morning Post attributes China’s growing role in the Indian Ocean to growing U.S.-India joint maritime security cooperation.  China’s goal is to “counter U.S. efforts to advance its Indo-Pacific strategy, which emphasizes India’s continued rise and leadership in the region.”  Meanwhile, Paris-based, online media source Naval News sees the buildup of Pakistan’s naval capability more generally as an effort to counter India.  According to the article, the Pakistani navy is in the process of renewing its fleet.  In addition to the four Chinese frigates, they will be commissioning new corvettes from Turkey and a multi-purpose offshore patrol vessel from the Netherlands.  Pakistan is also modernizing its submarine fleet.  In 2016, Pakistan entered a $5 billion deal with China to acquire eight Chinese Yuan-class Type 041 diesel submarines by 2028.  According to the article, the goal is “to shift the force balance with its archrival India.”

Source:

Ananth Krishnan, “China, Pakistan Begin War Games Off Shanghai,” The Hindu (Indian daily newspaper), 10 July 2022. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-pakistan-begin-war-games-off-shanghai/article65624154.ece

China and Pakistan on Sunday began four-day naval exercises off the coast of Shanghai, involving Pakistan’s most advanced China-built frigate and paving the way for closer security cooperation between the two countries in the Indian Ocean.

Wei Dongxu, a Chinese military expert, told the paper the two countries “need to jointly demonstrate their capabilities in safeguarding strategic sea lanes that transport energy and goods.”

The first Type 054A, Tughril, was commissioned last year.  Pakistan’s envoy to China Moil Ul Haque then told Chinese media that the commissioning of the frigate “in the context of the overall security paradigm of the region” would “strengthen Pakistan Navy’s capabilities to respond to maritime challenges to ensure seaward defence, maintain peace, stability and balance of power in the Indian Ocean region.”

Source: Amber Wang, “China and Pakistan Launch Naval Drills Aimed at Countering US Indo-Pacific Strategy,” South China Morning Post (Hong Kong based semi-independent English language daily), 11 July 2022. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3184897/china-and-pakistan-launch-naval-drills-aimed-countering-us-indo

This is the second time China and Pakistan have held a “Sea Guardians” joint maritime exercise. The first was held in January 2020 in the northern Arabian Sea.

Lin Minwang, a professor of South Asian studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the exercise would help China to expand its engagement in the Indian Ocean and counter US efforts to advance its Indo-Pacific strategy, which emphasizes India’s “continued rise” and leadership in the region.

“The strengthening of maritime security between India and the United States has led to China’s greater engagement in the Indian Ocean.”

The Indian Ocean is a vital trading hub, and 80 per cent of China’s oil imports come through the Malacca Strait, the ocean’s busiest “choke point”.

To counter India, it is important for Pakistan to improve its navy by acquiring advanced equipment from Beijing and enhancing its capabilities through these drills, according to Lin.

Source: Tayfun Ozberk,“Pakistan Navy Commissions 2nd Type 054 A/P Frigate ‘PNS Taimur,’” Naval News (Paris based naval focused news outlet), 24 June 2022. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/pakistan-navy-commissions-2nd-type-054-a-p-frigate-pns-taimur/

The Pakistan Navy is currently undertaking an important renewal of its fleet, with the procurement of several modern platforms: In addition to these frigates from China, Pakistan will also commission new corvettes from Turkey and OPV from the Netherlands.  It is also modernizing its submarine force.  In 2016, Pakistan agreed to pay China $5 billion for the acquisition of eight Chinese Yuan-class type-041 diesel submarines by 2028 in order to shift the force balance with its archrival India.

Russia’s Newest Nuclear Submarine Joins Northern Fleet

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“The ‘Belgorod’ special purpose submarine, carrier of the so-called doomsday Poseidon drones, will be in experimental operation with the Northern Fleet before later to serve in the Pacific Fleet.”

According to the excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer, Russia recently announced that its newest nuclear-capable research submarine, the Belgorod, will begin “experimental operation” with the Northern Fleet in Arctic waters.  Many of Russia’s research submarines begin their work with the Arctic portion of the Russian Navy’s specialized submarine and surface fleet designed for espionage, deep-sea rescue, and special operations.  However, according to the article, the Belgorod’s real mission is to carry up to six Poseidon autonomous nuclear-powered underwater attack drones.  The Belgorod is likely to join the Pacific Fleet as part of Russia’s nuclear triad when the Poseidon drone system is deployable.

Source:

Thomas Nilsen, “World’s longest nuclear submarine handed over to the ‘Russian Navy’,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian internet news service in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 8 July 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/climate-crisis/2021/06/looming-arctic-collapse-more-40-north-russian-buildings-are-starting-crumble

An official press release posted by the Sevmash submarine yard on 8 July says the “Belgorod” (K-239) is a “research submarine”.  In fact, the vessel is built to carry one of the craziest weapons of mass destruction mankind ever has seen:  The Poseidon is an autonomous, nuclear-powered underwater drone that can deliver its nuclear payloads from deep under water after crossing distances like the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean.

Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Nikolai Evmenov, stated: “… this is a significant day for us” as … advanced achievements of science and the latest construction technologies were applied….  “The submarine “Belgorod” opens up new opportunities for Russia in conducting various studies, allows conducting diverse scientific expeditions and rescue operations in the most remote areas of the World Ocean.”  … The statement also adds that the submarine can conduct search and rescue operations in deep waters as it carries autonomous unmanned underwater vehicles. There is no mention of the Poseidon drone weapon armament.

With the U.S. developing an anti-ballistic missile defense system, Russia started to develop a deep-diving response capability.  The Poseidon is a 24-meter-long torpedo-shaped vehicle with an estimated range of 10,000 km and can travel at speeds of 100 knots down to a maximum depth of 1,000 meters.  Powered by a small nuclear reactor, it could be armed with a megaton nuclear warhead.

The submarine likely carries six Poseidon drones.  The submarine also serves as a mother vessel for a deep-diving midget nuclear-powered submarine, like the infamous Losharik, a mini-submarine that got the world’s attention in July 2019 when its batteries caught fire and all 14 officers on board died. 

The “Belgorod” has an elongated hull of what was originally meant to be an Oscar-II class multi-purpose submarine, a sister vessel to the ill-fated “Kursk” submarine that sank in the Barents Sea during a naval exercise in August 2000.   The hull of the submarine was laid down in 1992, but only twenty years later, in 2012, the Defense Ministry decided to use the hull to construct this giant special purpose vessel.  With a hull elongated by 29 meters to 184-meters, the one-of-a-kind vessel is longer than the world’s largest submarine, the Soviet-built Typhoon-class. 

The “Belgorod” launched in April 2019, the “Belgorod” started sea trials in the White Sea last summer.  The Russian Navy has not announced where the “Belgorod” will be based for the period it will be in experimental operation with the Northern Fleet.  It could be Severodvinsk where the Poseidon drone development will be conducted or at Olenya Bay on the Kola Peninsula where the other special-purpose submarines of GUGI, Russia’s Main Directorate for Deep Sea Research, are based.  Indications are that the long-term assignment of the Belgorod will be with the Pacific Fleet.

DRC Conflicts Reveal Difficulties in Deploying Regional Forces

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M23 rebels in the DRC.

M23 rebels in the DRC.

“But however noble President Kenyatta’s deployment proposal, not everyone in the DRC agrees with the regional leaders’ decision of a military solution to stabilise the restive eastern DRC provinces.”

Kenya’s influential President, Uhuru Kenyatta, recently proposed deploying the East African Standby Force (EASF) to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).  Regional leaders at the East African Community Heads of State Conclave even endorsed Kenyatta’s proposal, but still no troops have been sent to help combat M23 rebels as well as the multiple militias who have ramped up attacks on civilians.  As the excerpted article from the Africa-based media company The East African notes, there are several reasons for this delay.  Many politicians in the DRC, as well as a significant segment of the population, view a potential EASF deployment with distrust.  They are especially wary of having Rwandan troops in the DRC given the long history of hostility between the two nations.  Troops from Uganda and Burundi, as well as Rwanda, are also unwelcomed as they all have rebel groups in the country.  There is fear their divergent goals might further complicate an already complicated situation.  There is also concern that EASF will be comprised of countries that have formerly plundered DRC’s mineral riches.  Finally, there are traditional obstacles to deployment including logistics, communications, rules of engagement, budgets, and agreements on the status of forces.  As the article explains, no timeline exists regarding when these issues would be resolved.   Meanwhile, violence in eastern DRC is increasing, portending further destabilization and the potential interruption of the importation of critical minerals, including those for defense industries.  The recent military intervention in The Gambia by several West African countries under the auspices of ECOWAS gives some hope that East African countries can also come together and find that delicate balance whereby all parties can agree on the terms of a deployment.  Additionally, any solutions to the struggle of launching the EASF could be valuable in helping the African Union’s African Standby Force finally stand up.  Both forces have the potential to help provide the security and stability desperately needed in the DRC and elsewhere in Africa.

Source:

Patrick Ilunga and Luke Anami, “Why the EAC regional force is yet to be deployed to DR Congo,” The East African (African-based media company), 27 June 2022. https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/why-the-eac-regional-force-is-yet-deployed-to-dr-congo-3861010

“All the armies from the East African Community states are already present in the east of our country in one form or another.  The Rwandan army is associated with the M23 in North Kivu and supports the Red-Tabara [Burundian rebellion based in Congo].  The Ugandan army, which you invited, has been operating openly in North Kivu and Ituri since November 2021.  The Burundian army operates regularly in South Kivu, and the South Sudanese army in the province of Haut-Uele [northeast of DRC].  The Tanzanian and Kenyan armies are already present in North Kivu and Ituri as part of the UN intervention brigade,” the letter reads.

“At least three out of seven member states of the East African Community have been involved for more than two decades in the aggression and destabilisation of our country through direct interventions of their armies or by proxy, through armed groups.  Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi accuse each other of destabilisation.  They compete for influence, even control of part of our country for security as well as economic and geopolitical reasons, so much so that more than once they have had to confront each other on our territory, directly or through armed groups,” Lucha writes.President Tshisekedi has to make tough decisions.  His main political opponent Martin Fayulu accuses him of “subcontracting the security of the country to Rwanda and Uganda and unnecessarily creating a competition of East African countries over the Congo”” He has called on the president to reveal “his secret deal.”

Image Information:

Image: M23 rebels in the DRC
Source: Al Jazeera/Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:M23_troops_Bunagana_4.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 2.0

Russia To Provide Belarus a Potential Nuclear Delivery Capability

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Russian Air Force Su-25 Ground Attack Aircraft.

Russian Air Force Su-25 Ground Attack Aircraft.

Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) with 9M723K5 Short Range Ballistic Missiles and Transloader of the Iskander-M.

Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) with 9M723K5 Short Range Ballistic Missiles and Transloader of the Iskander-M.

“Lukashenko has asked Putin to help convert Belarusian military aircraft to carry nuclear warheads.”

“The strengthening of the “missile fist” of the Union State can deter the deployment of critical, but vulnerable stationary objects of NATO military infrastructure near the borders of both Belarus and Russia.”

The accompanying excerpted article from pro-Kremlin daily Izvestiya describes Russian plans to provide Belarus with the Iskander missile system.  Russia exports the Iskander-E limited capability export variant to Armenia and Algeria.  However, according to Izvestiya, due to changing “geopolitical realities,” Russia will provide Belarus with the same version of the Iskander that the Russian Armed Forces field.  In a related development, Russian government news service Interfax describes President Putin’s proposal to modernize Belarus’s aging fleet of Su-25 ground attack aircraft and President Lukashenko’s request to modify Belarussian aircraft so they may employ nuclear weapons.  In February, Belarus removed verbiage from the constitution regarding its status as a “nuclear-free zone.”  This prompted speculation that Russia may be planning to deploy nuclear weapons on Belarussian territory.  There have been no announcements from Moscow or Minsk on what, if any, arrangements they have made for such a contingency, but the announcement about the Iskander, which is capable of nuclear delivery, and Lukashenko’s request for nuclear delivery capable aircraft is notable.

Source:

Anton Lavrov, “Идите под ‘зонтик’ (Go Under the ‘Umbrella’),” Izvestiya (large circulation pro-Kremlin daily newspaper), 28 June 2022.  https://iz.ru/1356221/anton-lavrov/idite-pod-zontik

On June 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Iskander [missile systems] would be transferred to our closest.  According to him, Belarus will receive a variant with both ballistic and cruise missiles.

This means that we are talking about transferring to a partner in the Union State not a limited and simplified export version of the Iskander, but a full-fledged formidable system that is not inferior in capabilities to those that are in service with our country and are now being successfully used in a special operation in Ukraine.

Due to international agreements, the export Iskander-E is limited to a range of 280 km.  The deployment of such in Belarus would not bring a serious increase in NATO territory controlled by them compared to the Iskanders already in the Kaliningrad region…

Such a radical discrepancy in the capabilities of the export and “home” version has long encouraged the leadership of Belarus to strive to obtain the Russian version.  But the issue of its acquisition, as well as price, for various reasons, remained the subject of bargaining between Minsk and Moscow for years.  Dramatically changed geopolitical realities, it seems, will allow Alexander Lukashenko to get a variant in the “top configuration”.  It is clear that in the event of a real conflict, it will be possible to use it jointly with the Russian Federation and according to a single plan.

The strengthening of the “missile fist” of the Union State can deter the deployment of critical, but vulnerable stationary objects of NATO military infrastructure near the borders of both Belarus and Russia.  The Alliance will have to reckon with the prospect of receiving a highly accurate and irresistible retaliatory strike against them in the event of a military confrontation…

Iskander missiles have already been deployed in the Russian Kaliningrad region.  But their additional deployment in Belarus will give a significant increase in the reach zone, it will shift another 300 km to the south.

…the Kaliningrad bridgehead has serious shortcomings.  Its limited territory is completely visible from all sides by means of NATO reconnaissance, and the Iskander has limited maneuverability there. Issues of ammunition storage and protection are also not easy.  Belarus is much better protected from outside surveillance.  The complexes on its territory will have better survivability not only due to the air defense “umbrella”, but also due to their ability to maneuver around the country and even beyond its borders.  It is much more difficult to hunt for ground launchers in the wide open area of Belarus than the small area of Kaliningrad.  The experience of the special operation has shown that mobile long-range weapons systems are still a very difficult target to counter…

“Президент РФ предложил дооборудовать Су-25 для Белоруссии на российских заводах (President of the Russian Federation proposed to retrofit Belarussian Su-25s at Russian factories),” Interfax (Russian government news service), 25 June 2022.  https://www.interfax.ru/russia/847889

President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin proposed to retrofit the Su-25 aircraft in service with the Belarusian army in Russia.

“The Belarusian army is armed with a fairly large group of Su-25 aircraft.  They could be appropriately equipped and training of flight personnel could be started accordingly,” Putin said during Russian-Belarusian summit talks on Saturday.  “This modernization should be carried out at aircraft factories in Russia.  We will agree on how to do this,” he stressed.Meanwhile, Lukashenko has asked Putin to help convert Belarusian military aircraft to carry nuclear warheads.  He acknowledged that he was “very concerned about the training flights of US and NATO aircraft, which are preparing to carry nuclear warheads and nuclear charges.”… “It’s very stressful for us,” he said.

Image Information:

Image: Russian Air Force Su-25 Ground Attack Aircraft
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/MAKS-2007/i-kphcXRn/0/e220a607/X2/maks-2007-003-X2.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Image: Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) with 9M723K5 Short Range Ballistic Missiles and Transloader of the Iskander-M
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/ARMY-2016-Demonstration/i-bSmJnCF/0/ac0d8313/X2/Army2016demo-076-X2.jpg 
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

India Strengthens Security Cooperation With Vietnam

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Defense Minister Shri Rajnath Singh

“The Indian military has the advantage of operating similar platforms to Vietnam’s.”

India has taken several measures to counter China in the past several years, particularly after violent clashes on the Indian – Chinese border in 2017 and 2020.  In addition to strengthening the capabilities of its armed forces along the border, the accompanying excerpted article from the Indian independent think-tank Observer Research Foundation reveals how India is trying to improve security cooperation with Vietnam.  Following the 2020 border skirmishes, Indian officials believe future conflict with China will not likely be limited to one domain.  The article reports on Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh’s visit to Vietnam in early June, noting that he signed two security cooperation agreements.  One remains unpublished in the public domain, but the other agreement involved mutual logistics support and allows both to use the other’s military facilities for repairs and replenishment.  According to the article “this arrangement will mainly benefit the Indian Navy as it ramps up its profile in the Indo-Pacific.” Finally, the article addresses the impact of the war in Ukraine on Vietnam’s ability to procure weapons and equipment from Russia, noting that India has the potential to offer Vietnam various weapons and equipment.  India operates “similar platforms to Vietnam’s and…has leveraged this by assisting Hanoi in training and capacity building.”  Ultimately, India’s agreements with Vietnam mark another step to counter China and offer a potential market for the Indian defense industry.

Source:

Sameer Patil, “The importance of India’s defence partnership with Vietnam,” Observer Research Foundation (independent think tank in India), 28 June 2022.

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-importance-of-indias-defence-partnership-with-vietnam/

Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh recently paid a three-day visit (8-10 June 2022) to Hanoi to strengthen defence and security ties with Vietnam…  India has also activated a satellite imaging and tracking station in Hanoi, enabling it to track Chinese naval activities in the region…

During Minister Singh’s recent visit, India and Vietnam signed two key agreements:

The first agreement, ‘Joint Vision Statement on India-Vietnam Defence Partnership towards 2030’, casts a long-term perspective on the mutual ties.  While contents of the agreement are not available in the public domain, according to officials, it aims to “enhance the scope and scale of existing defence cooperation.”

The second agreement, an MoU, focused on mutual logistics support to enable the two countries to use each other’s military bases to repair and replenish supplies.  According to the official statement, this agreement is “the first such major agreement which Vietnam has signed with any country.”  This arrangement will mainly benefit the Indian Navy as it ramps up its profile in the Indo-Pacific.

Besides, the two countries also agreed to expedite the extension of a US$500-million Line of Credit (LoC) to Hanoi… As part of the US$ 500 million LoC, India has offered Vietnam Brahmos cruise missiles, Akash missile air defence system, Varunastra anti-submarine torpedoes, and coastal radars…

Notwithstanding the pro-China orientation of the current political leadership, a key driver of Vietnam’s military build-up is the security rivalry with China.  Beijing’s stepped-up aggression to press its territorial claims in the South China Sea dispute has been a significant irritant for Hanoi…

Vietnam has traditionally relied on Russia for its weapons.  However, given its renewed proximity with the US and the US sanctions against the Russian defence industry, Hanoi has sought to diversify its recent arms purchases…

Since the South China Sea clashes, Vietnam has boosted its defence spending, averaging US $4.8 billion between 2014 and 2018.  But, compared to the threat posed by China and its military requirements, this spending is inadequate.  Therefore, Hanoi is looking for more affordable defence suppliers with this moderate defence spending.

India can potentially be one such source.  The Indian military has the advantage of operating similar platforms to Vietnam’s.  It has leveraged this by assisting Hanoi in training and capacity building in Kilo-class submarine operations and Sukhoi-30 fighter jet training.

The unrelenting Chinese hostility in the region will ensure that India and Vietnam will continue on the path of cooperation…  However, to optimise the gains of their collaboration and contribute to regional stability, New Delhi and Hanoi will have to show tangible progress…

Image Information:

Image: Defense Minister Shri Rajnath Singh
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Defence_Minister_Shri_Rajnath_Singh.jpg
Attribution: Government Open Data License – India (GODL)

China’s Newest Aircraft Carrier Extends Capabilities With “Leapfrogged” Technology

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A J-15 carrier-based fighter aircraft is taking off from Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning (Type 001).

A J-15 carrier-based fighter aircraft is taking off from Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning (Type 001).

“…a modern navy equipped with aircraft carriers gives China a power projection capability, which was previously unavailable to them.”

In June, China officially floated its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian (Type 003) carrier, which can launch a wider variety of aircraft due to its increased size and the implementation of an electromagnetic catapult launch system (EMALS).  The two excerpted articles, published by Chinese internet technology company NetEase and Indian television broadcast network Noida News 18, provide an overview on the newly unveiled carrier and possible implications of using the groundbreaking EMALS.  The articles also highlight the emphasis the Chinese place on advancing technological developments as quickly as possible.

China’s first two aircraft carriers, the Liaoning (Type 001) and Shandong (Type 002), feature a ski jump deck, which assist jets taking off from the short runway.  The launched aircraft are restricted by size, weight, and payload.  The Liaoning is capable of operating 40 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters, while the Shandong can accommodate up to 50 J-15 fighters, an early-warning radar, and anti-submarine aircraft and various helicopters.  The Fujian is now China’s largest aircraft carrier at 80,000 tons and 318 meters.  Its size, coupled with greater capacity and the more condensed EMALS, allows it to carry more types of carrier-based aircraft than its two predecessors do.  These include the upgraded J-15, the new stealth J-35, and the recently unveiled (2020) Air Police 600—an early warning aircraft that can reportedly detect stealth aircraft from a long distance. 

Regarding the launching system, it is noteworthy that the next-step technology would have been a steam-piston driven system, which increases the launch and payload capacity from that of the ski jump.  As the NetEase authors point out, instead, China “leapfrogged” to EMALS, a technology developed by the United States.  The Chinese government, however, claims to have developed and constructed EMALS using all domestic innovation and technology.  Regardless, according to Noida News 18, China is already working on its next aircraft carrier (Type 004), which could be nuclear-powered, greatly extending the country’s long-range operational capabilities. In addition to similar observations regarding the Fujian’s technological advances, Indian observers from Noida News 18 commented that China’s aircraft carriers are not designed to be used in a conflict within the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, or Indian Ocean region.  The article argues that China has learned from the United States over the past several decades and will most likely use carriers to coerce and punish smaller powers.  Most importantly, the authors argue, they “will help China to overcome the limits of their own geography.”

Source:

Song Zhongping,“宋忠平：实现跨越式发展的中国新型航母003 (China’s New Aircraft Carrier 003 Achieves Leapfrog Development),” NetEase (a business and technology oriented Chinese website)20 June 2022. https://www.163.com/dy/article/HAACEBL40552AOD9.html

The Fujian is the first aircraft carrier to have an electromagnetic catapult launch systems (EMALS)…  Like the Shandong, the third aircraft carrier is completely developed and manufactured domestically.

The official displacement of the Fujian exceeds 80,000 tons, which is larger than both the Liaoning and Shandong ships…  The Fujian is also larger than America’s Kitty Hawk class, but smaller than the USS Ford, which has a full load displacement of 110,000 tons.

The Fujian has adopted so many innovative technologies, some of which are world-class.  For example, it is the first time a Chinese aircraft carrier uses EMALS…  The new carrier is able to house more types of carrier-based aircraft, such as the upgraded J-15 fighter and the new stealth J-35.  It will also carry the Air Police 600, a new type of early warning aircraft.

China developed its aircraft carriers for offshore operations and long-sea escort.

It should take another two years for the ship to become fully operational.

Suyash Desai, “What Does China’s New Aircraft Carrier Say About Its Technology and Strategy,” Noida News18 Online (Indian and English language news service based in Noida India.  International coverage provided by CNN while Indian and local news is a product of Indian Broadcast Network), 27 June 2022. https://www.news18.com/news/opinion/what-does-chinas-new-aircraft-carrier-say-about-its-technology-and-strategy-5447215.htmlfpo

China launched its third aircraft carrier this month.  The type 003, now named Fujian, is China’s biggest, most modern and most powerful aircraft carrier.  At 80,000 tons and 318 meters, the Fujian outstrips all but America’s supercarriers, the new USS Gerald R. Ford-class…

… Fujian is reported to have electromagnetic catapult launch systems (EMALS).  Its main advantage is that it accelerates the aircraft more smoothly, putting less stress on their airframes…  Fujian helps China catch up with the US…  However, like US carries, the Fujian will not be nuclear-powered, meaning its speed, endurance, and long-ranged operational capabilities would still be limited…

…Some authoritative Chinese reports suggest that China has already started the work for building the next aircraft carrier, Type 004, which could possibly be a nuclear-powered carrier.  However, there is no concrete evidence to support this claim.  It reportedly plans to have six aircraft carriers by 2049 to be a world-class force and become a blue water navy to protect and pursue overseas interests.China’s aircraft carriers are not designed for a Taiwan reunification campaign or to have a direct role in a conflict with big powers like the US or India in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea or Indian Ocean Region.  China is learning from the US’ use of carriers over the past several decades and is most likely to use them in coercing and punishing smaller powers in the near and far seas.  Also, a modern navy equipped with aircraft carriers gives China a power projection capability, which was previously unavailable to them.  But most importantly, the aircraft carriers will help China overcome the limits of their own geography.

Image Information:

Image: A J-15 carrier-based fighter aircraft is taking off from Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning (Type 001)
Source: Government of Japan, https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:A_PLAN_Shenyang_J-15_carrier-based_fighter_aircraft_is_taking_off_from_Chinese_aircraft_carrier_PLANS_Liaoning_%28CV-16%29_20220510.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0