Category Archives: OE Watch

High-Profile Female Colonel From Russian Proxy Force Killed in Ukraine

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“What makes you think that I am at war with Ukraine?  I am at war with NATO.”
-Colonel Olga Kachura, commander of the MLRS battalion of the 31st Motorized Rifle Brigade, 1st Army Corps, of the Donetsk People’s Republic

On July 29, 2022, Colonel Olga Kachura, the commander of the multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) battalion of the 31st Motorized Rifle Brigade, 1st Army Corps, of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) was killed by Ukrainian artillery.  Colonel Kachura had gained some notoriety as a female commander of an MLRS battalion and was posthumously awarded the title of ‘Hero of Russia’ by Russian President Putin.  The accompanying excepted article from official Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta features an interview of Colonel Kachura shortly before her death.  The interviewdescribes Colonel Kachura’s beliefs about why the war was justified, but also about the perceived nature of the conflict.  Colonel Kachura believed that the Ukrainian forces she fought were well-trained and well-armed by NATO and were also commanded by NATO.  Therefore, she believed that she was not really fighting Ukraine, but NATO by proxy.  While other combatants of the DNR and the Lukhansk People’s Republic may have different beliefs, Colonel Kachura’s perspectives certainly support the narrative of the Russian government.

Source:

Alexander Stepanov, “Последнее интервью Ольги Качуры: Фашистов будем бить, никого не спрашивая (Olga Kachura’s last interview: We will beat the Nazis without asking anyone),” Rossiyskaya Gazeta (official Russian Government daily newspaper), 3 August 2022. https://rg.ru/2022/08/03/poslednee-interviu-olgi-kachury-fashistov-budem-bit-nikogo-ne-sprashivaia.html  

In Gorlovka, Kachura Olga Sergeevna, whom the entire Donetsk People’s Republic knew under the call sign Korsa, died.  A fragile woman with iron nerves and a steel character was the commander of the multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) battalion of the 31st Motorized Rifle Brigade, 1st Army Corps, of the Donetsk People’s Republic.  Quite recently, Rossiyskaya Gazeta correspondents came to Olga Sergeevna at one of the positions near Yasinovataya in order to interview and film the work of the battalion.  She immediately said that she would not let us go to Gorlovka, under which her Grads were then working, because it was very dangerous there.  We interviewed, agreed to call later to finish shooting.  Did not work out.  The life of a remarkable woman and a talented officer was cut short. 

Olga, are you still the People’s Militia or the 1st Army Corps of the DPR? 

Officially, of course, we are the People’s Militia, but calling us militia is somehow ridiculous.  It’s more of a political play on words.  The name of the 1st Army Corps of the DNR is closer to me. 

I know that your battalion is thrown into the most dangerous areas. What are you fighting for? 

By conducting a military special operation against Ukraine, we continue the work of our grandfathers – we destroy fascism.  We have the right to do this not only morally, but also legally.  This right is enshrined in the UN Charter.  Thus, articles 106 and 107 of this organization explicitly state that the victors in the Second World War of the USSR, whose successor is Russia, the United States, Great Britain and China, have been given the right to apply all measures against the countries that fought against them to suppress actions aimed at revising the results of the Second World War.  This includes the use of military force against these countries.  To do this, it is enough to notify the other three countries, but not to obtain their consent.  Therefore, sorry.  We will beat the Nazis without asking anyone… Artillery is my creed.  This is my life.  It’s rocket artillery.  They even gave me earrings in the form of guns.  I haven’t taken them off since 2015. 

What was the beginning of the special military operation for you? 

This is what was expected for more than one day.  We’ve been waiting for this all eight years.  Prepared for this, studied.  Maybe even waiting too long.

You are opposed mainly by those Ukrainian nationalists who were born in the south of Ukraine, there are few Western Ukrainians among them. How can this be explained? 

Wait.  And where did you get the idea that I am at war with Ukraine?  I am at war with NATO.  The Ukrainian units include Ukrainians, Moldovans, Russians, Belarusians, Georgians.  Look at those defendants who were sentenced by the court of the DNR.  There are citizens of those countries who do not understand what is forgotten here.  There is no confrontation purely with Ukraine.  We are at war with NATO.  The territory of Ukraine is a springboard for hostilities. 

Commercial UAVs Creating “Revolution in Artillery”  

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General of the Army (ret.) Yuri Baluyevsky, former chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (2004-2008).

General of the Army (ret.) Yuri Baluyevsky, former chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (2004-2008).

“Simple Chinese-made commercial quadrocopters have made a real revolution in the use of traditional cannon and rocket artillery, almost completely solving the age-old problem of reconnaissance, target designation and adjustment of artillery fire.” 

– former General of the Army Yuri Baluyevsky

The accompanying excerpted article from Russian government news agency RIA Novosti features an interview with General of the Army (ret.) Yuri Baluyevsky, the former chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (2004-2008).  General Baluyevsky states that commercial unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have created a “revolution in artillery.”  He particularly notes the enhancement of reconnaissance, target designation, and adjustment of artillery fire for tube and rocket artillery systems, saying that UAVs are “almost completely solving” these “age-old problems.”  In today’s restricted environment of open-source information in Russia, such comments from a former senior officer serves as a signpost to future Russian military considerations.

Source:

“Генерал Балуевский рассказал о революции в артиллерии (General Baluyevsky discussed a revolution in artillery),” RIA Novosti (Russian government news agency), 11 August 2022. https://rb.gy/o4uxn

Simple Chinese commercial quadrocopters have made a real revolution in the use of traditional cannon and rocket artillery, said the former chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (2004-2008), General of the Army Yuri Baluyevsky. 

Earlier in August, the Almaz-Antey East Kazakhstan concern announced the creation of a new multifunctional drone.  According to experts interviewed by RIA Novosti, it can be used for reconnaissance and target designation during a special military operation in Ukraine. 

“Simple Chinese-made commercial quadrocopters have made a real revolution in the use of traditional cannon and rocket artillery, almost completely solving the age-old problem of reconnaissance, target designation and adjustment of artillery fire.”  Baluyevsky says in the author’s preface to the CAST [Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies] book “Alien Wars – a New Paradigm” published on Wednesday. 

The general noted that when adjusted with the help of a drone constantly hovering over the target area, it is possible to use artillery with conventional projectiles with accuracy and efficiency comparable to firing precision-guided munitions.  In particular, the number of shells and guns required for destruction has sharply decreased. 

“This, ironically, contributed to the return (most likely, still temporary) of traditional artillery to the pedestal of the god of war in a meaning comparable to its value during the First World War… 

“There is no doubt that the integration of UAVs with high-precision weapons has not yet exhausted the possibilities,” the former chief of the General Staff noted…  

Image Information:

Image: General of the Army (ret.) Yuri Baluyevsky, former chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (2004-2008) 
Source: Russian Ministry of Defense, https://rb.gy/o4uxn
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Algerian Military Deepening Ties to Russia

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“… [Israel Defense Forces’ Chief of Staff] Kochavi’s visit to Morocco resulted in a series of technical and strategic agreements between the two armies and the two governments.….”

Russian-Algerian security cooperation has not been dampened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Last March, a high-level Russian military delegation visited Algiers, where the two sides agreed to hold join anti-terror military exercises in southern Algeria this November (see “Algeria Caught Between Neutrality and Strategic Relations with Russia,” OE Watch, Issue 5, 2022).  Following a visit to Algiers in May, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke of “a new strategic cooperation document” that was being drafted to replace the 2001 agreement that currently guides Russian-Algerian relations.  In early June, the new director of Algeria’s Advanced Warfighting School led a group of officers on a tour of General Staff colleges in Russia (see “Algeria Inches Closer to Russia Amid Frosty Relations with Morocco and Spain,” OE Watch, Issue 7, 2022).  Also in May, as reported in the influential Saudi daily al-Sharq al-Awsat, a high-level Russian delegation led by Viktor Bondarev, the former head of the Russian Aerospace Forces who is now Chair of the Russian Federation Council’s Committee on Defense and Security, visited Algiers to discuss military cooperation and developments in Ukraine.  In late June, the general director of the Russian defense export entity Rosoboronexport visited Algeria, where he met with top military leadership. 

Despite other Algerian sentiment, the Algerian military seems likely to deepen military ties with Russia.  Over the past decade, Algeria has invested a substantial percentage of its GDP in new weapons purchases, particularly from Russia.  In recent months, high oil prices and new demand for natural gas in Europe have provided Algeria with a revenue windfall, parts of which will likely be channeled toward importing advanced weaponry.  Morocco, in turn, is set to boost its own military expenditures and capabilities through a blossoming relationship with Israel.  The Algerian-Moroccan arms race of the past decade is poised to intensify in the coming years, in the shadow of growing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West.

Source:

“مسؤول روسي رفيع يبحث بالجزائر التعاون العسكري 

(High-level Russian official discusses military cooperation in Algeria),” al-Sharq al-Awsat (influential Saudi daily), 17 May 2022. https://tinyurl.com/2s3jt5ms

Yesterday, a senior official in the Russian Federation Council discussed with local Algerian officials the ongoing war in Ukraine, the development of military cooperation between the two countries, and the previously announced joint military exercises scheduled in the Algerian desert in November.

“Lieutenant General Said Chanegriha, Chief of Staff of the People’s National Army receives in audience the General Director of the Russian company Rosoboronexport, Mr. Alexandre Mikhaeev,” People’s Democratic Republic of Algeria Ministry of National Defence (Algerian Defense Ministry), 28 June 2022. https://www.mdn.dz/site_principal/sommaire/actualites/an/2022/juin/cem28062022an.php

The Lieutenant General Saïd Chanegriha, Chief of Staff of the People’s National Army, received in audience, this Tuesday 28th June 2022, at the headquarters of the People’s National Army, the General Director of the Russian company Rosoboronexport, Mr. Alexandre Mikhaeev. 

China Carries Out Ballistic Missile Defense Test Amid Related Developments

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“It is worth noting that this is not the first time the Chinese military has announced a successful land-based midcourse anti-missile test.”

In August, China fired ballistic missiles over Taiwan and into Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) during mass military exercises, demonstrating that the mobility and survivability of its conventional and nuclear forces are improving.  In the past seven years, China’s strategic missile forces have been reorganized, expanded, and equipped with several new types of long-range precision cruise and road-mobile ballistic missiles (see “China’s New Road-Mobile ICBM DF-41 Official Unveiled,” OE Watch, November 2019). China continues to diversify its missile defense system platforms and the quality of training for its nuclear forces (see “China’s Rocket Forces Conduct Readiness Training,” OE Watch, April 2019).  A parallel development involves the development of anti-ballistic missile systems.  According to the excerpted article below, China successfully conducted another test of a ground-based mid-course ballistic missile defense system in June.  China is also developing an airborne leg of its nuclear forces to complement its existing nuclear ballistic missile submarines, road-mobile, and rapidly expanding silo-based missile force.  Along with its extensive use of decoys, hardened shelters, and other passive defenses, the addition of tested ballistic missile defense systems can only further improve the overall capability and survivability of China’s growing nuclear force.

Source:

“中国成功实施陆基中段反导拦截技术试验 (China Successfully Carries out Test of Ground-based Mid-course Intercepting Ballistic Missile Defense System),” The Observer Online (Independent PRC media), 20 June 2022. https://www.guancha.cn/military-affairs/2022_06_20_645392.shtml 

According to the Chinese Ministry of Defense’s public Wechat account, on 19 June 2022, China successfully carried out a land-based mid-course anti-missile interception technology test within its territory.  This test is defensive in nature and not directed against any country. 

China is one of the few countries that has mastered land-based mid-course missile interception technology.  Only China, the United States, and Japan have conducted similar tests.  It is worth noting that this is not the first time the Chinese military has announced a successful land-based midcourse anti-missile test. 

According to public information, the PRC Ministry of National Defense previously announced that it had “successfully carried out a test of ground-based anti-ballistic missile technology” or “achieved the expected purpose” five times… 

In an interview with CCTV News, military expert Shao Yongling [邵永灵] previously commented on CCTV News that land-based mid-course anti-missile technology is a strategic investment in scientific and technical reserves [技术储备] (Note: this term refers to small-scale testing which lays the foundation for more significant capabilities in the future). She said that all countries currently emphasize both offense and defense. China has stated that it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict and has limited the scale of development of its nuclear forces. Therefore, it is necessary to develop appropriate defensive capabilities to ensure the survivability of its nuclear force. 

China Issues New White Paper With Special Emphasis on Taiwan

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Map of Taiwan.

Map of Taiwan.

“…let there be no doubt – we will tolerate no foreign interference in Taiwan, we will thwart any attempt to divide our country, and we will combine as a mighty force for national reunification and rejuvenation. The historic goal of reuniting our motherland must be realized and will be realized.”

Recently, China issued a new white paper on Taiwan and Reunification, building on two previous white papers published in 1993 (The Taiwan Question and Reunification of China) and 2000 (The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue) and a significant speech by Xi Jinping in January 2019.  A close comparison of these sources indicates some important shifts in emphasis, such as the current policy description of a post-reunification Taiwan and the urgency of achieving rejuvenation to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership.

The first two white papers went into considerable detail regarding the “One Country, Two Systems” approach to peaceful reunification.  The 1993 white paper promised “a high degree of autonomy” where Taiwan would be a special administrative region with its own governmental system, a degree of independence in foreign affairs, and its own military forces.  The 2000 white paper similarly promised that China would not “send troops or administrative personnel” to the island.  The new paper uses less explicit language but notes that “We maintain that after peaceful reunification, Taiwan may continue its current social system and enjoy a high degree of autonomy in accordance with the law” and that Taiwan’s “social system and its way of life will be fully respected.”  

Other elements of the paper have close similarities with Xi’s 2019 speech, in which he argued that reunification was a historical necessity, such as the statement “Our country must be reunified and will surely be reunified.  This is a historical conclusion drawn from the evolution of cross-straits relations over the past seven decades; it is also critical to the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the new era.”  The new paper also echoes’ Xi’s commitment to “make no promise to renounce the use of force and reserve the option of taking all necessary means.”  While this latest white paper and China’s five-year plans have continued to express commitment to deepening economic and social ties with Taiwan, this document appears to be an attempt to more strongly lay out a vision for a post-reunification future as much as it is a restatement of the CCP’s policy regarding Taiwan.  

Source:

“《台湾问题与新时代中国统一事业》白皮书 (全文) (The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era),” State Council Information Office, 10 August 2022. http://www.scio.gov.cn/zfbps/32832/Document/1728489/1728489.htm 

We Chinese will decide our own affairs.  The Taiwan question is an internal affair that involves China’s core interests and the Chinese people’s national sentiments, and no external interference will be tolerated.  Any attempt to use the Taiwan question as a pretext to interfere in China’s internal affairs or obstruct China’s reunification will meet with the resolute opposition of the Chinese people, including our compatriots in Taiwan.  No one should underestimate our resolve, will, and ability to defend China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. 

We will work with the greatest sincerity and exert our utmost efforts to achieve peaceful reunification.  But we will not renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures.  This is to guard against external interference and all separatist activities.  In no way does it target our fellow Chinese in Taiwan.  Use of force would be the last resort taken under compelling circumstances.  We will only be forced to take drastic measures to respond to the provocation of separatist elements or external forces should they ever cross our red lines. 

We will always be ready to respond with the use of force or other necessary means to interference by external forces or radical action by separatist elements.  Our ultimate goal is to ensure the prospects of China’s peaceful reunification and advance this process.

The journey ahead cannot be all smooth sailing.  However, as long as we Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Straits devote our ingenuity and energy to the same goal, let there be no doubt – we will tolerate no foreign interference in Taiwan, we will thwart any attempt to divide our country, and we will combine as a mighty force for national reunification and rejuvenation.  The historic goal of reuniting our motherland must be realized and will be realized. 

Source: “White Paper—The Taiwan Question and Reunification of China,” Taiwan Affairs Office & Information Office State Council, August 1993. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/ceno/eng/ztxw/twwt/t110654.htm  

Source: “White Paper—The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue,” Taiwan Affairs Office and The Information Office of the State Council, 21 February 2000.  

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/ceno/eng/ztxw/twwt/t110655.htm   Source: Xi Jinping, “Working Together to Realize Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation and Advance China’s Peaceful Reunification – Speech at the Meeting Marking the 40th Anniversary of the Issuance of the Message to Compatriots in Taiwan,” Taiwan Affairs Office, 2 January 2019. http://www.gwytb.gov.cn/wyly/201904/t20190412_12155687.htm

Image Information:

Image: Map of Taiwan 
Source: USG, https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ed/Taiwan_CIA_map_updated.jpg 
Attribution:  Public Domain

China Probably Expanding Its Nuclear Testing Capability 

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“Extensive coverings have been erected on a mountainside in this arid region, and broken rocks piled up nearby are believed to be evidence of excavation of a new “sixth tunnel” for [nuclear] testing hidden beneath.” 

Satellite images suggest that China is expanding its nuclear test facilities in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.  Popular Tokyo-based news website Nikkei Asia said the images appear to show newly installed power transmission cables and a facility that could be used to store high-explosives and extensive coverings.  Also, broken rocks appear to be piled up along a nearby mountainside, evidence that China could have been excavating a new “sixth tunnel” for testing.  Other evidence, according to the article, includes a notice in which the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), a paramilitary organization under the China Communist Party, invited bids for “10 radiation dose alarms,” “12 protective suits,” and “one detector of wound, site taints.”  These items could be part of “a project for emergency monitoring of nuclear and radiation accidents.”  Also raising the author’s suspicion is that, while there are no nuclear power plants in Xinjiang, the XPCC had stated it will “make 2022 the starting year for strengthening the capacity to monitor radioactivity” (see “XPCC: The Militarization of Agriculture and Construction,” OE Watch, October 2015).  According to the article, President Xi Jinping could be contemplating reunification with Taiwan by force if needed.  However, as “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has provided a sobering warning about the risks of military adventures,” an added nuclear capability, perhaps small nuclear weapons, could be the force needed to deter Taiwan from seeking independence and the United States from interfering.

Source:

“Satellite Photos Show China’s New Nuclear Test Site in Xinjiang,” Nikkei Asia (Tokyo-based news website that focuses on the Asian continent), 1 August 2022. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-age-of-Great-China/Satellite-photos-show-China-s-new-nuclear-test-site-in-Xinjiang. 

…Nikkei has viewed Satellite photographs with a number of experts that appear to confirm China is strengthening its nuclear testing capability. 

Extensive coverings have been erected on a mountainside in this arid region, and broken rocks piled up nearby are believed to be evidence of excavation of new “sixth tunnel” for testing hidden beneath. 

Power transmission cables and a facility that could be used for storing high explosives have recently been installed, while unpaved white roads lead from a command post in various directions. 

China has 2.04 million military personnel.  Although that is already the largest standing force in the world – and 1.5 times larger than that of the U.S. – it has been unable to recruit enough troops of late, according to one retired military officer.  This is a combination of the old “one-China policy” and a preference among the younger generation for less physically demanding work in the private sector.  

The Xi administration may be contemplating the reunification of China, and that would involve taking Taiwan by force.  But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has provided a sobering warning about the risks of military adventures, not least for the serious shortcomings in the quality of Russian military equipment.  Russia supplies China with over 66% of its imported military hardware. 

There is also telling evidence to be found in tenders invited from the region.  In April, an official Chinese procurement website invited bids for “10 radiation dose alarms,” “12 protective suits,” and “one detector of wound site taints.”  This was ostensibly part of “a project for emergency monitoring of nuclear and radiation accidents.”  The invitations were issued by the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), a paramilitary organization under the CCP.  

Although there are no nuclear power plants in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, the XPCC said that it will “make 2022 the starting year for strengthening the capacity to monitor radioactivity.”  Procurement of related equipment has increased in the region. 

Russia has threatened the use of small nuclear weapons on airports and underpopulated areas in Ukraine.  The U.S. has so far had no direct involvement in the war there, and some analysts have argued that the possible use of nuclear firepower has made it even more wary of any entanglement. 

China Using Japanese Higher Education To Build Military Capability  

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“There are concerns that China has utilized Japan’s knowledge in the development of the latest technology, which is also known as a ‘game changer’ that could revolutionize the face of war.” 

The following article, originally published by influential Japanese weekly Tokya Shukan Shincho, argues that China is using Japanese cutting-edge technology to build its military capability.  The author, Hirai Koji, a member of the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies Policy Advisory Board, explains that 43 higher-level universities in Japan have accepted students from seven leading Chinese universities, known as the “Seven Sons of National Defense.”  These “Seven Sons” fall under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China and are responsible for the research and development of weapons and equipment used by the People’s Liberation Army.  According to the article, completing their advanced education in Japan, “more than a few” of these students returned to China to develop key weapons.  For example, after attending one of Japan’s higher-level universities and returning to China, many researchers participated in hypersonic-related research at universities and research institutes.  The article goes on to note nine experts in related fields, such as jet engines, fluid dynamics, and heat resistant materials, who also had studied in Japan and returned to develop this new weapon.  The author argues that while Japan’s academia has not been cooperating in any way with Japan’s national security, “it has been eagerly cooperating with China’s military buildup.” 

Source:

Hirai Koji, “中国「大軍拡」は日本の技術の賜物 (China’s Military Expansion Due to Gift of Japanese Technology),” Tokyo Shukan Shincho (considered one of Japan’s most influential weekly magazines),21 July 2022. Posted on Yahoo Japan News at https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/a37c3552fced0105932811c60d9e39dea70aa3fd?page=1 

In China, there are universities called the “Seven Sons of National Defense,” which are responsible for the development of weapons and equipment used by the People’s Liberation Army [PLA] which are: 1) Beihang University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2) Harbin University of Technology, 3) Beijing University of Technology, 4) Harbin Engineering University, 5) Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 6) Nanjing University of Science and Technology, and 7) Northwestern Polytechnical University.  They fall directly under the jurisdiction of the State Administration for Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense. 

According to the “Survey on Inter-University Exchange Agreements With Overseas Universities and Overseas Centers of Excellence” revised in October 2021 by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, 43 public and private universities in Japan have established partnerships with the Seven Sons of National Defense.  Starting with the University of Tokyo, Kyoto University, Tokyo Institute of Technology, and others that represent Japanese higher education institutions, they have accepted students from the Seven Sons of National Defense affiliated with the PLA to engage in research on military and civilian technology. 

Of course, more than a few of the foreign students who came to Japan have gone on to work on weapons development and performance improvement research after returning home. 

On 20 February of this year [2022], Yomiuri Shimbun’s morning edition reported under the title “‘Economic Security: Invisible Threat’ (4) Japanese Technology for ‘Hypersonic Missile’” that Japanese technology may have been used in the development of a new weapon, a hypersonic missile developed by China. 

The following is a long quotation from the article.  “Hypersonic missiles fly at speeds of Mach 5 or faster and are considered difficult to intercept with the current missile defense system. There are concerns that China has utilized Japan’s knowledge in the development of the latest technology, which is also known as a ‘game changer’ that could revolutionize the face of war. 

The Public Security Intelligence Agency secretly submitted a report to the relevant cabinet ministers warning them of this situation.  This was in May 2021. 

The report pointed out that ‘after returning to China, many researchers engaged in hypersonic-related research at universities and research institutes and pointed to nine experts in the fields, such as jet engines, fluid dynamics, and heat resistant materials. 

According to an agency member, one of them became an assistant professor at Tohoku University in 1994 after working as a researcher at a research institute under the umbrella of a Chinese military corporation.  He received a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (GASR) and had access to a facility affiliated with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) in Miyagi Prefecture.  Around 2000, he returned to China and joined a research institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, where he was involved in the establishment of a hypersonic experimental facility in 2017, similar to that of JAXA.” 

If this is true, it means that Japan’s own advanced technology was transferred to China through a national university and used to develop a new weapon that is said to be virtually impossible to intercept.  

China Sharpens Tone Against U.S. Policy, Deepening Ties in Syria

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Wang Yi, China's Foreign Minister at the Supporting Syria conference (2016).

Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister at the Supporting Syria conference (2016).

“…The United States has not stopped looting Syrian local resources…”

Chinese rhetoric toward the U.S. presence in Syria has recently sharpened, signaling a further convergence of narratives with Russia criticizing U.S. involvement in Syria while possibly hinting at greater Chinese involvement in the Levant.  Until recently, China’s criticism had largely been muted and vaguely worded, in contrast to the more direct accusations made by Syrian and Russian government officials and media outlets.  The excerpted article from the Arabic-language version of the Chinese state-run publication The People’s Daily is illustrative, alluding to a U.S. policy of “frantic piracy and resource looting” in Syria and beyond.  The article reinforces statements made by Chinese diplomats and is one of several pieces published in Arabic-language Chinese media highlighting the U.S.-facilitated transfer of oil from Kurdish-controlled areas of Syria across the border into Iraq.  The Chinese emphasis on “looting” echoes a narrative that has been pursued by Russian and Syrian officials for several months, partially in response to the Western emphasis on Russia’s control over Ukrainian resources.  Thus, China’s new approach reflects a narrative convergence with Russia, one that may portend greater coordination between these countries in the Levant.  

Meanwhile, China is working on telecommunications development that would further enable its rhetoric and influence with Syria.  In early 2022, Syria officially signed on to the Belt and Road Initiative, potentially setting the stage for greater Chinese economic involvement in the country.  In late July, the two countries signed a letter of intent for China to furnish $30 million dollars of telecommunications equipment and software for Syria to rebuild its tattered network in war-torn areas of the country.  As portrayed in an article from the pro-regime Syrian daily al-Watan, the agreement is a further landmark of deepening bilateral ties.  An analyst cited by the Qatar-aligned daily al-Araby al-Jadeedascribes security significance to the deal, arguing that it is for “listening and jamming devices,” though no evidence is presented to back this claim.  The deal could indeed be the start of greater Chinese involvement in Syria’s technological sector, though the modest sums involved belie the idea that it is of great consequence.  Nonetheless, media coverage of the deal highlights a growing pattern of magnification of the significance of any Chinese aid or assistance.  A good example of this comes from a recent report by the Center for Operational Analysis and Research, a Syria-focused research consultancy group.  The report notes that even though Syria received more than triple the number of COVID-19 vaccines from the World Health Organization’s COVAX initiative than it did from China, Syria’s official news agency published at least 38 articles praising Chinese assistance, and only one reference to the COVAX aid.   

Source:

“تعليق: سرقة النفط والقمح من سوريا .. حقيقة سيناريو الديمقراطية وحقوق الانسان الامريكي في الشرق الأوسط 

(Theft of oil and wheat from Syria .. The reality of the American democracy and human rights scenario in the Middle East),” China People’s Daily – Arabic (Chinese daily), 8 August 2022. http://arabic.people.com.cn/n3/2022/0808/c31662-10132765.html

In recent years, the United States has engaged in frantic piracy and looting of resources in the Middle East…  The United States has not stopped looting Syrian local resources since it stationed itself by force in the name of “fighting terrorism” in 2015.

Source: 

“سورية والصين توقعان على مشروع لتوريد تجهيزات خاصة بالاتصالات والبرمجيات بقيمة 30 مليون دولار …  

(China and Syria agree on project to supply communications and software equipment worth $30 million…),” al-Watan (pro-regime Syrian daily), 21 July 2022. https://alwatan.sy/archives/311198 

The Chinese ambassador also revealed that China’s $30 million grant for the supply of telecommunications technology equipment — which was preceded about a month ago by the grant of 100 Chinese buses — will be followed in the coming days by the arrival of a new batch of Chinese food aid, including wheat and rice…  In turn, the head of the Planning and International Cooperation Authority, Fadi Salti Al-Khalil… referred to the memorandum of understanding that was signed with the Chinese side at the beginning of this year for Syria’s accession to the Belt and Road Initiative… 

Source: 

“الصين تزود النظام السوري بمعدات وبرمجيات اتصالات 

 (China supplies Syrian regime with software and telecommunications equipment),” al-Araby al-Jadeed (Qatari aligned daily), 20 July 2022. https://tinyurl.com/utsk4cym  

Meanwhile, economic researcher Younes al-Karim said in an interview with al-Araby al-Jadeed that the Chinese communication equipment announced today is likely to be “military, not civilian.” Al-Karim said that “the agreement is not new, it was revealed a while ago, and it is related to bringing in military listening and jamming devices.

Source: “China in Syria: Aid and Trade Now, Influence and Industry Later?,” Center for Operational Analysis and Research – COAR (Syria-focused research consultancy), 11 July 2022. https://coar-global.org/2022/07/11/china-in-syria-aid-and-trade-now-influence-and-industry-later/  

As of February 2022, Syria has received more than 8.3 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines through the WHO-supported COVAX facility, while China has committed an estimated 2.6 million vaccine doses.  As of early May 2022, SANA had published no fewer than 38 articles referencing Chinese bilateral support for COVID-related measures, noting that it “has spared no effort” to support Syria throughout the pandemic.  By comparison, SANA had referenced the (largely Western) WHO-supported COVAX facility only once.

Image Information:

Image: Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister at the Supporting Syria conference (2016).
Source: DFID – UK Department for International Development, Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/photos/dfid/24789378436  
Attribution: CC BY 2.0

Algerian Media Dismissive of Morocco-Israel Security Cooperation

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IAI Harop UAV at Paris Air Show 2013.

IAI Harop UAV at Paris Air Show 2013.

“China controls 80 to 90 percent of global capacity. This is an extremely dominant position for a country at a time when everyone is trying to expand.”

Security cooperation between Morocco and Israel has expanded rapidly since the two countries formalized relations as part of the 2020 Abraham Accords.  As reported in the Saudi daily al-Sharq al-Awsat, the two militaries will institutionalize regular joint training and education programs.  In addition, Morocco has agreed to purchase Israeli weapons systems, including the BARAK MX Integrated Air & Missile Defense System, Heron unmanned aerial vehicles, and Harop loitering munitions[RG1] .  Seeking to bolster its domestic defense industry with Israeli know-how, Morocco is set to eventually manufacture Harop munitions domestically. 

Against this backdrop, Algerian media outlets have been dismissive of the extent to which deepening Israeli-Moroccan security links will shift the balance of military power in North Africa.  A recent opinion article in the Algerian daily El Chorouk interprets Moroccan outreach to Israel as a sign of desperation and insecurity within Morocco’s ruling elite, due to both regional strategic challenges and uncertainty over royal succession.  In this view, Israel is the only party willing to “rescue Morocco from Algeria’s military power,” something that in the author’s view it will not accomplish.  Algerian pundits may be dismissive of Morocco’s growing power, but Algerian military leaders are undoubtedly paying attention to the challenge of the Israel-Morocco security partnership. 

Source:

“كيف يستفيد المغرب من التجربة الإسرائيلية؟ 

(How does Morocco benefit from the Israeli experience?),” al-Sharq al-Awsat (influential Saudi daily), 22 July 2022. https://tinyurl.com/n5ntt67x

Kochavi’s visit to Morocco resulted in a series of technical and strategic agreements between the two armies and the two governments. At the core of them is cooperation in various security fields, as well as an active and persistent exchange of experiences, including study exchanges and joint training of combat units throughout the year… Morocco also agreed to buy a set of [Harop kamikaze drones] and to start manufacturing them domestically…

Source:

“الصهاينة لنجدة المخزن ضدّ قوة الجزائر العسكرية

(Zionism to rescue the Makhzen from Algeria’s military force),” El Chorouk (Algerian daily), 9 August 2022. https://tinyurl.com/4k6ew5zb

As for its dispute with Algeria, it led Morocco to an accelerating arms race in which it was difficult to keep pace with its eastern neighbor, leaving it far behind due to the strength of the latter’s resources, in contrast to the scarcity of Moroccan resources… [Morocco] has found no refuge except in the Zionist entity, which cannot provide what Rabat is looking for.

Image Information:

Image: IAI Harop UAV at Paris Air Show 2013
Source: Julian Herzog, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:IAI_Harop_PAS_2013_02.jpg
Attribution: CC 4.0

African Stances on the Russia-Ukraine War Demonstrate Reliance on, Antipathy Toward West

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 “The West wants its African partners to share its condemnation of Russia. African states meanwhile cling to their monopoly on victimhood and historical resentment of Western domination in world affairs.”

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, official reactions from African nations have varied.  For instance, the March 2022 UN vote to condemn Russian aggression showed that 27 African states voted for the resolution, one state (Eritrea) voted against, 17 abstained, and nine more were absent for the vote.  As commentary from the respected Pan-African Institute for Security Studies lays out, the range of African reactions to the war is guided by logics not always appreciated from the outside.

First, and most important, the authors underscore that the continent’s 54 states are in no way a monolithic bloc and would not share a singular, unified viewpoint of the war given their varying goals, positions in international society, and international alliances.  Second, the authors note that African states are not affected by the war in the same ways.  While extreme food shortages were felt in certain states throughout the continent as a result of Russian blockades of grain and fertilizer, for many African countries, these issues “[don’t] compare with the Western aid that enables African countries to function.”  Third, the authors note that the war has been a litmus test bringing to light variations in African states’ interpretations of the international system.  Certain African states seek to maintain the Western “rules-based” order, and thus find more sympathy with Ukraine.  Conversely, other African states, with lingering antipathy to a global order in which they view themselves to be marginalized, are thus more sympathetic with revisionist, non-rule-abiding states like Russia. The authors sum up their assessments, saying: “Western surprise at most African countries’ limited emotion towards Russia’s invasion, and Africa’s neutral stance, point to a self-centeredness on both sides.  The West wants its African partners to share its condemnation of Russia.  African states meanwhile cling to their monopoly on victimhood and historical resentment of Western domination in world affairs.” 

Source:

Paul-Simon Handy and Félicité Djilo, “Unpacking Africa’s Divided Stance on the Ukraine War,” Institute for Security Studies (pan-African think tank), 12 August 2022. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/unpacking-africas-divided-stance-on-the-ukraine-war  

“African votes in the United Nations (UN) on the war revealed sharp divisions between countries… The high number of abstentions was widely interpreted as a sign of Russian influence or evidence of the growing anti-Westernism of African governments and citizens.  This view wrongly assumes that Africa is a political monolith.  It also suggests an underlying expectation by the West that states on the continent should align with them because of the West’s pre-eminence in development and humanitarian aid, and their shared historical past. 

Western surprise at most African countries’ limited emotion towards Russia’s invasion, and Africa’s neutral stance, point to a self-centredness on both sides.  The West wants its African partners to share its condemnation of Russia. African states meanwhile cling to their monopoly on victimhood and historical resentment of Western domination in world affairs. 

How do African states benefit from proclaiming non-alignment?  Although the conflict reveals the extent of the continent’s dependence on grain and fertiliser from Ukraine and Russia, it doesn’t compare with the Western aid that enables African countries to function.  The increasing price of hydrocarbons is affecting Africa’s most fragile states.  While European countries imposed sanctions against Russia despite the costs to their energy supplies, many African countries feel less able to adopt a principled and values-based foreign policy. 

The divide, however, runs deeper – extending to perceptions about the international order itself.  Western states defend a rules-based system in which they are pre-eminent.  African states have a more cynical view of a global order whose rules seem to be determined by the West.  This difference in outlook may explain Africa’s leniency towards Russia, even though the latter has violated a cardinal AU principle on territorial integrity. 

African states’ position is not without contradictions – which isn’t surprising given the many norms and values on a continent of 54 states.  They aspire to an international order based on rules, not force, while at the same time sympathizing with Russia and China, which challenge this order for different reasons.”