Yearly Archives: 2022

Russia Tests R-441 Liven Satellite Communication in Ukraine

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R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle.

R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle.

R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle.

R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle.

“An analysis of the various nuances of the special military operation are yet to come, but experts are already noting that, along with other means, the Liven system has confirmed its relevance and effectiveness.”

“For the first time, the Russian military used the R-441 Liven satellite communication station in a combat situation. Its effectiveness was confirmed in the organization of communications among headquarters of the Russian military in Ukraine…“

The accompanying excerpted articles from Russian military-themed website Armeyskiy Standart  and weekly Russian newspaperwebsite Argumenty i Fakty describe the capabilities of the R-441 Liven satellite communication system.  Both articles clarify that the R-441 had its first use in combat conditions during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or as they call it the “special military operation.”  The R-441 is designed to provide SHF (S/C-band) satellite communications capabilities for the strategic- and operational-level headquarters of the Ground Forces and Aerospace Forces.  The first version of the R-441 was fielded in 1997 to replace the R-440 Kristall satellite communication system, which provided a similar capability.  Variants of the R-441 are located in the headquarters of Air and Air Defense Armies, Combined Arms Armies, and Military Districts.  The articles purport that the system has performed well, although they provide few details.

Sources:

Petr Nikolaev “Связующие нити «Ливня»: Система связи окружного и армейского звена управления получила станцию нового технического уровня (The Binding Threads of “Liven”: Military district and combined arms army command-level receive a communications system of a new technical level),” Armeyskiy Standart (Russian military themed website), 4 May 2022. https://armystandard.ru/news/20224271046-kIXen.html

…What are the main advantages of this station [Liven]? Firstly, versatility, it provides stable communications with any digital or analog radio relay stations and unified command and control vehicles. Liven’s navigation system automatically aims the satellite dish (diameter 1.8 meters)…

Secondly, it is more secure, and can operate in environments with electromagnetic interference…

…The R-441 crew (full manned-16 personnel, partially manned – 11 personnel) is able to deploy in 20-30 minutes in any climatic conditions. In addition, difficult terrain is not an obstacle for the system, which is especially important in the mountains…

A number of modifications of the R-441 “Liven-VM” complex have been created. Among them are R-441-LM (linear automobile station “Liven-LM”); R-441-OV (terminal automobile station “Liven-OV”); R-441-OZh (terminal railway station “Liven-OZh”); R-441-OK (terminal container station “Liven-OK”); and R-441-U (nodal automobile station “Liven -U”).

…It is powerful communication center that works autonomously in the field. Just like the stationary communication nodes at the strategic and operational levels, “Liven” provides mobile long-range multi-channel radio communications. The use of repeaters on artificial satellites makes it possible to cover vast distances without problems. For example, at a recent training session in the Amur Region, R-441 crews created a high-quality digital communication network spanning more than 400 kilometers.…An analysis of the various nuances of the special military operation are yet to come, but experts are already noting that, along with other means, the Liven system has confirmed its relevance and effectiveness. In general, the modern communications systems that have recently entered service significantly increase the throughput [bandwidth] and quality of communication channels, allowing commanders of various levels to successfully solve command and control tasks.

Source: Alexey Kozachenko, “Что за «военный роутер»: «Ливень» получил боевое применение на Украине? [What is a “military router”: Was “Liven” received for combat use in UkLivene?],” Argumenty i Fakty (Website of weekly Russian newspaper), 6 May 2022.

https://aif.ru/society/army/chto_za_voennyy_router_liven_poluchil_boevoe_primenenie_na_ukLivene

For the first time, the Russian military used the R-441 Liven satellite communication station in a combat situation. Its effectiveness was confirmed in the organization of communications among headquarters of the Russian military in Ukraine…

The main advantage of the R-441 is its versatility, it provides stable communications with any digital or analog radio relay stations and unified command and control vehicles. The system uses “Globus-1” and “Meridian” satellites, and is able to automatically direct the antenna to a specified satellite. The developers claim that Liven is ten times superior to similar radios in terms of closed signal security and the ability to work in contested electromagnetic interference environments.

In fact, these are powerful communication nodes, military routers of the strategic and operational level, which are capable of autonomous operation in any conditions, on any terrain and in any weather. The use of this system as repeaters of artificial satellites makes it possible to create communication links several hundred kilometers long.The primary mission of “Liven” is to provide the command of the military district with long-range multi-channel radio communications in the field, which allows commanders of various levels to successfully accomplish missions of command and control. The station allows you to maintain a stable telephone and telegraph communications with the ability to access civilian telephone numbers. The equipment of the complex creates protected secure signals, which no modern electronic warfare system is capable of silencing and jamming. One of the additional options of this machine is the ability to create a secure digital network of broadband wireless access.

Image Information:

Image: R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-8dhCKdD/0/X3/i-8dhCKdD-X3.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Image: R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-3zvPTCM/0/O/i-3zvPTCM.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Russia Shifting Wounded Servicemen to Recruitment Duties

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“… [T]he first rehabilitation and educational center has been created in the Russian Ministry of Defense, which will allow the wounded to continue their military service. The new center enables military personnel to prepare for a new type of service activity in military commissariats, military units, institutions and organizations…”

The accompanying excerpted article from Russia’s army newspaper Red Star discusses Russian plans to have severely wounded servicemen continue their military service in military commissariats.  In the Russian military system, military commissariats are primarily responsible for the biannual draft but also deal with voluntary enlisted accessions, reserve accessions, and certain aspects of national mobilization.  Therefore, military commissariat offices are located throughout the Russian Federation, much as U.S. military recruitment offices are scattered across the United States.  This move appears to reverse a reform made under previous Russian Defense Minister Anatoli Serdyukov, whereby billets in military commissariats that uniformed servicemen once manned became civil service positions.  Placing severely wounded soldiers in commissariats is noteworthy because it acknowledges the horrors of war, the numbers of wounded servicemen, and implies that the Russian government is not concerned about the public seeing these severely wounded servicemen.  To the contrary, some Russian commentators have proposed that these servicemen will raise the prestige of the work of the military commissariats.

Source:

Anton Alekseev, “Для раненых открываются новые перспективы (New opportunities for the wounded),” Red Star, (weekly newspaper of the Russian Army), 13 April 2022.  http://redstar.ru/dlya-ranenyh-otkryvayutsya-novye-perspektivy/

…The Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Sergei Shoigu, decided to ensure the possibility of further military service for military personnel who were injured during a special military operation. To this end, a rehabilitation and educational center has been created on the basis of a military hospital, where, along with medical rehabilitation and prosthetics, those who wish can learn new military specialties. At the opening ceremony of the center, State Secretary – Deputy Minister of Defense Nikolai Pankov spoke with parting words and presented state awards to wounded servicemen who distinguished themselves during the special operation.

Currently, servicemen who were injured while performing combat missions of a special military operation, which led to restrictions on further military service for health reasons, are being treated in military hospitals of the Russian Ministry of Defense. Now the first rehabilitation and educational center has been created in the Russian Ministry of Defense, which will allow the wounded to continue their military service. The new center enables military personnel to prepare for a new type of service activity in military commissariats, military units, institutions and organizations of the Russian Ministry of Defense even at the stage of medical rehabilitation…

“First of all, I would like to fulfill the instructions of the Minister of Defense and convey to you words of gratitude for courage, bravery and bravery in the performance of military duty during a special military operation, wish you a speedy recovery and return to duty,” the Deputy Minister addressed the servicemen. – Army General Sergei Shoigu decided to ensure the possibility of further military service for all servicemen who were injured during the special operation. For each of you, a military position is being introduced in military commissariats, military units, institutions and organizations of the Russian Ministry of Defense…

Thus, the servicemen, after complete recovery and completion of qualification courses, will be sent for further service in military positions.  After the end of the ceremony, the first groups of servicemen who expressed a desire to learn a new military specialty went to classes…The training programs include, firstly, the basic part, which provides for the study of federal legislation and regulatory legal documents in the field of state defense and mobilization work, as well as the activities of military commissariats. The content of another important segment of training – the variable part – is aimed at training in the performance of duties for the position to which the serviceman is directly assigned.  At the end of the training, students will have a final assessment, which will take place in the form of an interview. Upon completion of the training, those who successfully mastered the program will be issued the relevant documents – certificates…

Chinese Military Scholars Call out Russia for Invading Ukraine

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“In the age of liberalization of global trade, countries don’t have to gain power through… grabbing land.  This can be done through technology and capital… but Russia is still obsessed with owning land.”

The accompanying article in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), a Hong Kong-based, ostensibly-independent newspaper, notes a growing list of Chinese intellectuals who have publicly questioned Russia’s justification for invading Ukraine.  This suggests that Chinese thinkers do not widely approve of China’s support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine despite the “no limits” relationship between the two countries that Chinese authorities stated prior to the Winter Olympics.

The focus of the SCMP article is an article by a recently retired Chinese military scholar published on Chinese social media site WeChat.  That article disappeared shortly after it was posted but, according to the accompanying SCMP publication, the author of the article, Gong Fangbin questioned Moscow’s assertion that Ukraine was on the brink of invading Russia, instead suggesting that the real reason Russia invaded Ukraine was that “Russian leaders have taken the wrong path for rejuvenation.”  The author suggested that Russia’s obsession with land as an indicator of strength was misguided and obsolete in the 21st century.  According to the SCMP article, another Chinese intellectual, Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, recently said that Russia would pay “a huge price” for its invasion of Ukraine.  Finally, Hu Wei, a political scientist affiliated with China’s State Council called on Beijing “to distance itself from Russia as soon as possible over its war on Ukraine.”  Finally, the intellectuals suggest multiple negative repercussions for China. The SCMP article also notes that although China has said it supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and denied suggestions that it might offer military assistance to Russia, it has not outright condemned Russia’s invasion, has not conducted a head of state visit with Ukrainian President Zelensky, and has criticized U.S.-led sanctions imposed on Russia.

Source:

Jun Mai, “Russia’s war on Ukraine based on flawed logic, Chinese military scholar wrote in article scrubbed from the web,” South China Morning Post (a Hong Kong-based, ostensibly-independent newspaper), 21 May 2022. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3178631/russias-war-ukraine-based-flawed-logic-chinese-military?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

Russia’s security rationale for attacking Ukraine was flawed and the aftermath underlines the importance of diplomatic flexibility, a Chinese scholar formerly with Beijing’s top military academy has said.

“I still don’t see how any country would have dared to invade the world’s No 2 military power,” Gong Fangbin, a retired professor of the People’s Liberation Army National Defence University, wrote in a recent online article.

“Russia has shown the world time and again that no one dares touch an inch of its land,” he said, countering Moscow’s argument that it was cornered by the West and NATO into invading Ukraine.

“What’s the real reason [for Moscow] to attack Ukraine? I think it’s because the Russian leaders have taken the wrong path for rejuvenation.”

Gong argued that the rationale to attack Ukraine over so-called security concerns was flawed. And the dilemma faced by Russia as it took heavy losses on the ground was the result of having chosen a path “long forsaken by human civilisation”, he wrote in his article posted on WeChat last Tuesday.

The article, however, has since disappeared from the social media platform.

Gong confirmed to the Post that he wrote the article but declined a request for an interview.

Gong, a military veteran who fought in the China-Vietnam war of 1979, is among a small but growing number of Chinese intellectuals voicing scepticism about Moscow’s rationale for its military aggression against Kyiv, despite heavy censorship of the sharing of such views.

“In the age of liberalisation of global trade, countries don’t have to gain power through … grabbing land. This can be done through technology and capital,” Gong wrote. “But Russia is still obsessed with owning land.”

At a Beijing seminar in April, China’s ambassador to Ukraine between 2005 and 2007, Gao Yusheng, argued that Russia had shown signs of having lost the war and its global status was set to decline. A summary of his remarks, first published by news outlet ifeng.com in mid-May, was quickly censored.

But there are others making their opinions known. Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, said earlier this month that China had not benefited from the war and Russia was set to pay “a huge price”.

And in March, Hu Wei, a political scientist affiliated with the State Council – China’s cabinet – called on Beijing to distance itself from Russia as soon as possible over its war on Ukraine.

As the war enters its third month, Beijing still refuses to condemn Russia’s act of aggression, despite mounting pressure from the US and its allies. It has also sought to rally international support to criticise the sweeping sanctions imposed on Russia, citing disruption to the global economy.

Since Russia launched its military assault on February 24, China has repeatedly said it respects Ukraine’s sovereignty. However President Xi Jinping is among the very few world leaders yet to hold direct talks with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.

Meanwhile, Chinese diplomats have sought to contain damage from the country’s close, “no limits” relationship with Moscow, as declared in a joint statement issued after Russian President Vladimir Putin met Xi in Beijing ahead of the Winter Olympics.

The diplomatic damage control has involved firmly denying suggestions that China might offer military assistance to Russia, and trying to isolate the Ukraine issue from Beijing’s relations with Europe.

Military scholar Gong had argued in another article earlier this month that the Ukraine war underlined how foreign policy flexibility might suffer if it was too closely tied to domestic politics.

This came after he had referenced the situation in yet another article in March, where he argued that countries only made decisions based on their own interests, and hence it was wrong to consider any country as a “strategic buffer”, as Russia says it had hoped Ukraine would be.

Failure to understand this, Gong argued, would lead one to also believe in the narrative that China’s economic development in the last 50 years owed much to Russia’s confrontation with the United States.“If a country is full of convictions related to strategic barriers and buffer zones, it will tie itself to the vehicles of others and thus lose autonomy, consistency and necessary flexibility,” he warned.

Two Retired Chinese Officials Offer Conflicting Perspectives on Russia’s Prospects in Ukraine

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“The United States is the real planner, instigator, organizer, commander and financier of the war in Ukraine.”

Chinese experts have taken to a number of domestic platforms to offer a more nuanced view of Russia’s war in Ukraine.  While mainstream Chinese media has closely adhered to talking points established in the first weeks of the conflict, the accompanying excerpted articles by two retired Chinese officials suggest alternative narratives of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Retired officials often have the greatest capacity to speak truth to power in the Chinese system as they have no risk of damaging their careers or have sufficiently powerful friends to shield them from the worst consequences.  While some may hold with the standard party line, their perspectives may provide some insights into the real conversations happening behind closed doors and signal whether the Party is continuing a particular effort or open to change.  In this case, the authors, a career military officer and diplomat respectively, offer contradictory views on Russia’s success in the conflict and likely outcomes.

In the excerpted article posted on Red Culture Net, career military officer Peng Guangqian portrays the war as simply an extension of Russian-U.S. competition, with Ukraine simply an unfortunate proxy being used, as he says, as “cannon fodder.  He goes on to repeat the conspiracy theory that the United States was operating biowarfare labs in Ukraine and concludes by praising Russia’s efforts and predicting a Russian victory.  Peng’s military background, generation, and the fora used to publish this article suggest that he represents a more conservative thread in Chinese Communist Party thinking.  His almost blind acceptance of Russia’s position should not be taken as indicative of broader Chinese support for Russia.  His attitudes may be more due to his generation (for comparison Peng is 78, while President Xi Jinping is 68).  Anecdotal evidence suggests that the broader Chinese public is more jaded and acknowledges Russia’s high losses, even when they accept Chinese government media narratives. 

In the second excerpted article from Phoenix News, veteran diplomat Gao Yusheng examines the broader implications of the conflict.  Censors quickly deleted the post, but his opinions are likely representative of a much more realistic group of retired and senior leaders.  In a stark contrast with Peng’s commentary, Gao argues that Russia’s “coming defeat is increasingly clear.”  He acknowledges that Putin has been trying to re-establish the Soviet Union’s sphere of influence and “has never really recognized the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of other former Soviet states.”  He notes “Russia has frequently violated their territoriality and sovereignty” and concludes that “Russia’s political, economic, military and diplomatic power will be significantly weakened and isolated. Russia will be…punished.  Russia’s power will weaken even more.” China further formalized its increasing alignment with Russia shortly before the war broke out (see “China-Russia Pledges of Deeper Cooperation Show Tangible Results,” OE Watch, #3 2022).  The outbreak of war raised fierce internal debates about Russia’s chances for victory in Ukraine and the ultimate consequences of the war for China.  The continuing promotion of pro-Russia narratives, and suppression of even moderate views like Ambassador Gao’s, along with other diplomatic actions, point toward a decision to stand firmly, albeit rhetorically, with Russia.

Source:

Peng Guangqian, “谁是乌克兰战场的胜利者和失败者? (Who are the Winners and Losers on the Ukrainian Battlefield?)” Red Culture Net (PRC State-approved NGO), 16 May 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220518222056/https://www.hswh.org.cn/wzzx/xxhq/oz/2022-05-15/75413.html

The United States is the real planner, instigator, organizer, commander and financier of the war in Ukraine. Although the United States tried its best to urgently send people, money, and guns, it failed to turn the tide of the war. U.S. military weapons have become the spoils of the Russian army, and the military advisers sent by the United States became the prisoners of the Russian army. The severe economic crisis in the United States has made things worse, and the domestic contradictions and infighting of the ruling clique have become more acute.

What makes the United States especially desperate and fearful is that the Russian army successfully conquered the biological laboratory hidden in Ukraine with the purpose of exterminating human beings, and has a large amount of ironclad evidence that the United States has long denied the secret development of biological weapons.

…

Russia’s just actions against [NATO] expansion, encirclement, and hegemony have been supported by all peace-loving forces. To measure the outcome of a war, it is not just a simple comparison of offensive and defensive situations, casualties, and positional gains and losses, but more importantly, the political underpinnings and goals of combat operations. In this contest, Russia represented the interests of the majority of the people and did not hesitate to sacrifice its nation. It not only safeguarded Russia’s own national security and strategic frontiers, but also destroyed the nest of the U.S. biological laboratories in Ukraine, exposing the evil face of the U.S. against humanity. This is a victory for Russia and a great victory for the cause of contemporary world peace and human progress. No matter what tests will be faced in the future, Russia’s brilliant achievements will be glorified in the annals of history.

Source: “中国驻乌克兰前⼤使⾼⽟⽣：俄乌战争的⾛势和对国际秩序的影响 (Former PRC Ambassador to Ukraine Gao Yusheng: The Dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian War and the Implications for the International Order),” Phoenix News (PRC State affiliated media), 10 May 2022. https://archive.ph/20220510105105/https://news.ifeng.com/c/8Fu9YlXw7qR

The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most important international event of the post-Cold War period. It marks the end of the post-Cold War period and the beginning of a new international order. First, Russia has lost the initiative in the Russo-Ukrainian war and this failure is already apparent.

The main reasons why Russia is now heading towards defeat are:

First, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia has always been in a historical process of continuous decline. This decline is first and foremost a continuation of the decline of the Soviet Union before the disintegration, and is also related to the mistakes of the Russian ruling clique in domestic and foreign policies. Western sanctions have intensified this process. The proposition of a so-called revival or revitalization of Russia under Putin’s leadership is totally false, and the decline of Russia has manifested in its economy, military, science and technology, politics, society and other fields, with serious negative consequences for the Russian military and its combat power.

Second, the failure of the Russian blitzkrieg and the failure to achieve a quick victory signaled the beginning of the Russian defeat. The Russian military’s economic and financial strength, which are not commensurate with its status as a so-called military superpower, could not support a high-tech war costing hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The embarrassing defeat of the Russian army due to its poverty was evident everywhere on the battlefield. Every day that the war continues represents a heavy burden for Russia.

Third, Russian military and economic advantages over Ukraine have been offset by the resilience of Ukraine and the huge, sustained and effective aid provided to Ukraine. The generational differences between Russia and the U.S. and other NATO countries in terms of weapons and technology, military concepts, and modes of warfare make the advantages and disadvantages of both sides even more pronounced.

Fourth, modern wars are necessarily hybrid wars, which encompass military, economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, propaganda, intelligence, and information fields. Russia is not only in a passive position on the battlefield, but has also lost in other areas. This means that it is only a matter of time before Russia is finally. It is only a matter of time before Russia is finally defeated.Fifth, Russia is no longer in a position to determine when and how the war will end. Russia has already failed to end the war as soon as possible to preserve its gains. In this sense, Russia has lost its strategic leading position and the initiative.

The Philippines Gaining Upper Hand Against Abu Sayyaf

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2021-12-03 T4 Delivery 005.

2021-12-03 T4 Delivery 005.

“The terror groups may try to disrupt the peace and order during the election period but our preparedness will assure that they will not succeed…”

The Philippines government may be weakening Abu Sayyaf across the region.  According to Philippine daily sunstar.com, there was concern that Abu Sayyaf would seek to disrupt the elections after Philippine forces killed the group’s leader in Basilan only weeks earlier.  The military’s strategy to protect the elections from Abu Sayyaf involved closing off access points to the group’s main area of operations in Basilan and ordering troops to avoid political partisanship.  In addition, the army boosted its coordination with the Philippine National Police, the Commission on Elections, and other agencies to secure the elections.  Ultimately, the army deployed 69,000 soldiers to protect the elections, which were held successfully on 9 May.

A separate article in the Philippines’ largest English-language newspaper, Manila Bulletin, pointed to the surrender of an Abu Sayyaf bomb-maker as evidence that Abu Sayyaf’s ranks were being further depleted through the Philippines’ rehabilitation program for former Abu Sayyaf members.  The program, which allows local governments to work with surrendered repentant militants to reintegrate them into society, has seen some success since the Philippines stepped it up in recent years. Elsewhere, according to a recent Indonesian-language article in Hong Kong-based suara.com, a number of hostages escaped Abu Sayyaf in Indonesia in April.  Collectively, the articles imply that Abu Sayyaf’s military capabilities and negative impact appears to be waning in the face of determined government effort.

Source:

“Troops told to ready for poll worst-case scenario,” sunstar.com (Philippine daily), 20 April 2022. https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1926909/zamboanga/local-news/troops-told-to-ready-for-poll-worst-case-scenario

Lieutenant General Alfredo Rosario Jr., commander of the Western Mindanao Command (Westmincom), has ordered the troops in Basilan province to prepare for the worst-case scenario on election day. “The terror groups may try to disrupt the peace and order during the election period but our preparedness will assure that they will not succeed,” Rosario said. On March 25, Radzmil Jannatul alias Abu Khubayb, the leader of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in Basilan province, was killed in a clash with government troops in Sitio Center, Baiwas village, Sumisip, Basilan.

“Let us also sustain our good coordination with our partners from the Philippine National Police, the Commission on Elections, and other agencies to ensure an honest, orderly, and peaceful elections,” Rosario added. He reminded the JTF-Basilan troops to remain non-partisan at all times.

Source: “Sayyaf bomber surrenders in Zamboanga,” mb.com.ph (Philippines largest English language newspaper), 23 March 2022. https://mb.com.ph/2022/03/23/sayyaf-bomber-surrenders-in-zamboanga/

A suspected Abu Sayyaf member linked to several bombing and kidnapping incidents in Zamboanga and Basilan surrendered to authorities on Tuesday. Mursidin Husin, 39, a resident of Sitio Buahayan, Dita, Zamboanga City, surrendered to the police at PNP Camp General Eduardo Batalla, RT Lim Boulevard. Husin also turned over his .38 caliber revolver with ammunition. Husin, a follower of Jamiul Nasalun, an Abu Sayyaf sub-leader based in Zamboanga City, was allegedly involved in the 2013 bombing of a passenger bus in Zamboanga City and two other explosions in a Sangali cafeteria and in Basilan.

Source: “Kisah WNI 427 Hari jadi Tahanan Abu Sayyaf: Jarang Makan dan Takut Kena Bom (Story of Indonesian Citizen 427 Anniversary of Abu Sayyaf Prisoner: Rarely Eat and Fear of Bombs), suara.com (Hong Kong based Indonesian language bi-monthly newspaper), 5 April 2022. https://www.suara.com/news/2021/04/05/132923/kisah-wni-427-hari-jadi-tahanan-abu-sayyaf-jarang-makan-dan-takut-kena-bom

Arizal Caste Miran, one of the four victims of the Abu Sayyaf group hostage-takers in the Philippines, is now able to reunite with his family. Before returning to his family’s arms, Arizal and three other people were desperate to escape. They heard from a member of the Abu Sayyaf group that the hostages would be transferred to Tawi Island. While on their way in the morning, the ship they were traveling on capsized because from the waves. Instantly the four Indonesian citizens went to save themselves.

Image Information:

Image: 2021-12-03 T4 Delivery 005.
Source: Armed Forces of the Philippines
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2021-12-03_T4_Delivery_005.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

Degrading Environmental Conditions in Iraq Providing Cover for Terrorism

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U.S. Soldiers walk from the dining facility during a sandstorm at Forward Operating Base Warhorse, Iraq, July 4 (2009).

U.S. Soldiers walk from the dining facility during a sandstorm at Forward Operating Base Warhorse, Iraq, July 4 (2009).

“…the number of dusty days increased from 243 days to 272 days per year over the past two decades, and is expected to reach 300 dusty days per year in 2050.”

Over a three-week span in April and May, the Iraqi news agency Shafaq News reported at least three separate attacks in which ISIS fighters took advantage of dust storms to attack Iraqi positions.  The attacks themselves are not novel, as ISIS and other rebel groups have used dust storms and sandstorms to conceal their movements during attacks in both Syria and Iraq for years.  Nor were the attacks particularly impactful, relegated to brief reports in local media.  The frequency and breadth of this year’s dust storms, however, have drawn substantial media attention.  As detailed in the accompanying excerpt from the influential Qatari outlet al-Jazeera, the number of annual “dusty days” is expected to reach 300 by the year 2050, up from 243 at the start of the millennium and 272 at present.  A major reason for this is Iraq’s accumulating environmental problems, which include ongoing drought, expanding desertification, extreme summer heat, and decreased water flows in the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers.  Iraq’s dysfunctional political parties are unlikely to muster sustainable responses to these challenges, allowing the spiraling cycle to continue.  Those frustrated at the negative social impacts caused by environmental degradation are likely to channel this against authorities, giving ISIS and other insurgent groups an opening to continue recruiting among the increasingly disaffected population.

Sources:

“بالتزامن مع عاصفة ترابية.. داعش يهاجم الجيش في الموصل والحشد يدخل الإنذار

(ISIS attacks the army in Mosul during dust storm, as PMF goes on alert),” Shafaq News (Iraqi news agency), 6 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/yck9dbmy

On Wednesday, ISIS militants attacked Iraqi army units in the city of Mosul, the center of Nineveh Governorate. A statement of the 44th Brigade in the Popular Mobilization (Ansar al-Marja’iya) stated that… “a very dense dust storm hit the city of Mosul at the time of the attack by ISIS.”

Source:

“جرحى بهجوم لداعش في الانبار مستغلا عاصفة ترابية تضرب المحافظة

(Injuries in ISIS attack in Anbar taking advantage of dust storm in the province),” Shafaq News (Iraqi news agency), 19 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/2p8wz9xa

Imad Al-Dulaimi, the mayor of Al-Rutba district, western Iraq, revealed on Tuesday that six soldiers and civilians were wounded by ISIS militants who took advantage of a dust storm that hit the area.

Source:

“مسؤول حكومي: هجوم “البو طراز” خارج حدود ديالى وداعش استغل العاصفة

(Government official: Albu Tiraz attack outside of Diyala’s borders, as ISIS takes advantage of storm),” Shafaq News (Iraqi news agency), 2 May 2022. https://tinyurl.com/yndch5bj

Eyewitnesses in the village of Albu Tiraz revealed that ISIS militants took advantage of the dust storm and lack of vision to carry out the attack, as visibility did not exceed 10 meters.

Source:

“العواصف الترابية تضرب مدن وقرى العراق طوال السنة.. تعرف على الأسباب

(Reasons why dust storms hit Iraqi cities and villages throughout the year),” al-Jazeera (influential Qatari news outlet), 19 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/p793253f

…according to the statistics recorded by the General Meteorological Authority, the number of dusty days increased from 243 days to 272 days per year over the past two decades, and is expected to reach 300 dusty days per year in 2050. About 70% of agricultural land in Iraq is degraded or threatened with deterioration, as a result of climate change and the loss of vegetation cover, which is the main factor for soil stabilization…

Image Information:

Image:  U.S. Soldiers walk from the dining facility during a sandstorm at Forward Operating Base Warhorse, Iraq, July 4 (2009).
Source: https://www.dvidshub.net/image/186799/sandstorm
Attribution: Public Domain

China Expands Naval Expeditionary Capability With New Ship and Helicopter Variants

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Type 075 (Yushen) Amphibious Assault Ship.

Type 075 (Yushen) Amphibious Assault Ship.

“The [Guangxi’s] complement of amphibious vehicles, tanks and helicopters is more complete and efficient in ship-to-shore movement.”

Captain Xu Ce [许策] – Captain of the Guangxi

China’s state-run television CCTV7 recently showed the Guangxi, China’s second Type 075 (Yushen) Amphibious Assault Ship, or a landing helicopter dock (LHD) in U.S. parlance, participating in workup exercises.  The second of its class, the Guangxi incorporates refinements learned from the development of the Hainan, China’s first Type 075.  Per China’s ship naming conventions, the amphibious ship is named after a Chinese province.  As noted by Captain Xu in state-run media outlet The Paper, the ship’s crew was able to quickly bring new systems online and begin training.  The Type 075 class LHDs can carry 1,687 troops and 30 helicopters, as well as two Type 726 air-cushion landing craft (see: “China: Type 075 Amphibious Assault Ship Launched,” OE Watch, November 2019).  The Type 075 class LHDs also have a defensive suite that includes HHQ-10 missile launchers, similar to the U.S. SeaRAM system; two 30mm H/PJ-11 CIWS; as well as jammers, chaff, and decoy launchers.

China is building multiple additional Type 075s, with the goal of fielding an extensive expeditionary force capable of executing “three-dimensional operations” involving power projection through air, sea, and amphibious land from multiple directions.  The growing force will complement the Chinese Navy’s rapidly expanding Marine Corps, which has grown from two divisions less than a decade ago to six operational brigades according to public reporting. In a related development, according to Chinese blog and media outlet Sina, the Z-20, a medium multi-role helicopter derived from the S-70 Blackhawk has entered service with the Chinese Navy.  The helicopter, which has superior capabilities compared to China’s indigenous Z-8 and Z-9 helicopters, has already entered widespread use in China’s ground force, but the apparent induction of navalized variants for anti-submarine warfare and other roles is a significant development, particularly for China’s naval expeditionary force.

Sources:

Nan Boyi, [南博一], ‘两栖攻击舰 广西舰’ 首次公开亮相，进一步提升海军两栖战力 (Amphibious assault ship “Guangxi Ship” made its first public appearance, further enhancing the naval amphibious combat capability),” The Paper (state affiliated media outlet), 21 April 2022. hxxps://j.eastday.com/p/1650522083043935

Recently, the Guangxi, a newly commissioned amphibious assault ship began basic training exercises, focusing on the requirements of future amphibious operations and expeditionary operations, while continuing to test the crew on essential tasks such as navigation, damage control and other subjects.

From its appearance, it can be seen that the Guangxi (hull number 32) is the same class as the Hainan, China’s first Type 075 amphibious assault ship (LHD).

According to a previous report by Xinhua News Agency, the Hainan (hull number 31) was launched in Shanghai on September 25, 2019.

According to previous CCTV reports, China’s first indigenously developed [class of LHDs] can carry amphibious armored vehicles, multi-role helicopters, hovercraft and tanks, and is equipped with missiles, naval guns, electronic warfare and other weapon systems.

Source: “国防军事早报 (Morning Report on Defense),” CCTV 7 (state TV military channel), 22 April 2022.

On April 22, CCTV Channel 7’s “Military Report” program displayed a images of an anti-submarine variant of the Z-20 helicopter taking off and landing on a Type 055 destroyer….The Z-20 is a new generation of 10-ton tactical general-purpose transport helicopters independently developed by China. It made its public debut at the 70th National Day military parade in 2019.

Source: “直-20反潜直升机首次公开，将进一步提升海军反潜能力 (Z-20 ASW Aircraft Publicly Shown for the First Time, Advancing the PLA Navy’s Anti-Submarine Capability),”Sina (Chinese blog and news outlet), 23 April 2022. hxxps://news.sina.com.cn/c/2022-04-23/doc-imcwipii5939966.shtml

Image Information:

Image: Type 075 (Yushen) Amphibious Assault Ship
Source: Peter Wood
Attribution: Creator, Peter Wood, grants permission to use

Algeria Sees Threat from Morocco as Western Sahara Conflict Threatens To Reignite

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Morocco from space.

Morocco from space.

“…Algeria strongly condemns the targeted assassinations by the Kingdom of Morocco using advanced military weapons outside of its internationally recognized borders…”

The long-frozen dispute over the Western Sahara, in which Morocco claims sovereignty over the territory and Algeria supports the Polisario Front’s independence aspirations, continues to thaw amid sporadic military activity.  The latest incident occurred in early April, when a Moroccan UAV purportedly struck a convoy near the border between Mauritania and the Western Sahara. There are conflicting reports of what happened.  The Algerian government, through its foreign affairs ministry, called it “a targeted assassination” carried out by Morocco outside of its internationally recognized borders.  The Qatari-aligned daily al-Araby al-Jadid cites a source that claimed a Moroccan drone had fired eight missiles at two Algerian trucks that had delivered their commercial cargo in Mauritania and were returning to the Algerian city of Tindouf.  The Moroccan government did not comment on the matter, but according to the Facebook page of the quasi-official Moroccan military chat forum FAR Maroc, Moroccan authorities had conveyed to the UN that 10 trucks transporting weapons and ammunition were struck within territory that the Polisario Front controls.  It added that Polisario had prevented UN forces from accessing the site for 72 hours, during which the group altered the scene to make it appear as if the missiles struck a civilian convoy. The Algerian military’s main articulated concern vis-à-vis Morocco are not UAVs, but rather the broader threat of “new generation warfare.”  In a speech immediately following the incident described above, Saïd Chengriha, Chief of Staff of the Algerian military, emphasized the importance of maintaining national cohesion amid external attempts to sow discord through misinformation and influence campaigns.  Chengriha has stated on more than one occasion that the key battle for Algeria’s youth is a battle of conscience, “in which new and unconventional weapons are used, and which uses virtual space as its theater of operations, in an attempt to manipulate opinions, especially young people.” 

Sources:

Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Twitter account, @Algeria_MFA, 12 April 2022. https://twitter.com/Algeria_MFA/status/1513918713086492676

Algeria strongly condemns the targeted assassinations by the Kingdom of Morocco using advanced military weapons outside of its internationally recognized borders against innocent civilians from three countries of the region.

Source:

“قصف جديد لشاحنات جزائرية في الصحراء قرب الحدود الموريتانية

(New attack on Algerian trucks in the Sahara near the Mauritanian border),” al-Araby al-Jadid (Qatari-aligned daily), 10 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/ydf7uemn

Local sources told al-Araby al-Jadid that Moroccan drones fired eight missiles at two Algerian trucks, which caused their destruction and the injury of more than two people. They added that the two trucks had unloaded their cargo in Mauritania and were on their way back to the city of Tindouf, in southern Algeria.

Source: FAR Maroc (quasi-official Moroccan military news forum), Facebook page (Arabic), 21 April 2022. https://www.facebook.com/1529080437316937/posts/3255921981299432

Regarding the Bir Lahlu operation on April 10, the [UN] mission confirmed that Morocco had informed that it targeted, in a specific operation, about 10 trucks and vehicles loaded with ammunition and weapons targeting the security of Morocco. However, the Polisario prevented members of the mission from inspecting the site for 72 hours, after which they found only two trucks and a vehicle. It also monitored the presence of another operation near the location of the two trucks, confirming that Polisario had manipulated the scene to prove its allegation that Morocco had targeted civilians.

Source: “Les nouveaux défis exigent la consolidation du front interne,” Algeria Press Service (Algerian oficial news agency), 8 May 2022. https://www.aps.dz/algerie/139409-les-nouveaux-defis-exigent-la-consolidation-du-front-interne-et-une-confiance-totale-dans-les-institutions-de-l-etat

According to El Djeich, “the various challenges which Algeria is currently facing, and which it will have to take up in the future, have led the High Command of the People’s National Army (ANP)… to carry out a vast program of modernization and capacity-renewal of the ANP battle corps and its implementation on the ground, in order to achieve a high level of competence at all levels and therefore operational availability”

… “The real battle that our young people must win today is essentially a battle of conscience, Lieutenant General Saïd Chengriha has said on numerous occasions,” per the Editorial. “It is a battle in which new and unconventional weapons are used, and which uses virtual space as its theater of operations, in an attempt to manipulate opinions, especially young people…”

Image Information:

Image:  Morocco from space
Source: NASA, https://www.dvidshub.net/image/751371/morocco-image-day]  
Attribution: Public Domain

Mexican Cartels Buying Land on Colombia-Venezuela Border

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A coca plantation of the kind found on the Colombia-Venezuela border.

“The first thing the cartels ask is if the farm has a landing strip because that gives the property a very high price.”

Mexican criminal organizations have ambitions to transform much of South America’s drug trade through a robust physical presence in Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador.  Previously, emissaries of Mexican criminal organizations had arrived at the Colombia-Venezuela border in an attempt to mediate disputes between local drug gangs (see “Colombian Military Continues to Forcefully Dismantle FARC Dissident Structures,” OE Watch, #4, 2022).  However, according to one of Argentina’s leading news sites, Infobae, the presence of Mexican cartels extends well beyond mediation.  Under the guise of oil exploration, Infobae reports how Mexican criminal organizations are driving a real estate frenzy on the Colombia-Venezuela border.  Farmland with a landing strip is especially valued, since it gives drug flights the ability to land and take off near production and storage facilities.  Large farms with landing strips are common because the roads are blocked during the rainy season and prevent farmers from getting their harvest to market.  Another Infobae report indicates that Mexican cartels in the borderland have started to transform Colombia’s drug production as well.  Specifically, Mexican cartels have introduced coca plants that yield greater harvests while requiring fewer hectares under cultivation.  Mexican cartels that used to work with local criminal organizations are becoming more globally minded in an effort to cut out middlemen and other major players.

Source:

“Alarma por el crecimiento de la compra y venta de ganado del narcotráfico y la guerrilla en Venezuela con participación de militares y políticos (Alarm over the growth of the purchase and sale of property from drug trafficking in Venezuela with the participation of the military and politicians),” Infobae (one of Argentina’s leading news sites), 28 April 2022.  https://www.infobae.com/america/venezuela/2022/04/28/alarma-por-el-crecimiento-de-la-compra-y-venta-de-ganado-del-narcotrafico-y-la-guerrilla-en-venezuela-con-participacion-de-militares-y-politicos/

There is a boom in the acquisition of properties by…Mexicans in the states of Apure, Guárico, Anzoátegui and Bolívar, with money of unknown origin…The first thing the cartels ask is if the farm has a landing strip because that gives the property a very high price.  The presence of Mexicans…has the excuse that they are interested in oil exploitation…For years, farmers have had airplanes mainly because in the rainy season, the roads are obstructed…Now, there are landing strips everywhere and aircraft landing and taking off at any time.

Source:  “Cómo el Cártel de Sinaloa y el CJNG han innovado la producción de cocaína en Colombia (How the Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG have innovated cocaine production in Colombia),” Infobae (one of Argentina’s leading news sites), 11 May 2022.   https://www.infobae.com/america/mexico/2022/05/11/como-el-cartel-de-sinaloa-y-el-cjng-han-innovado-la-produccion-de-cocaina-en-colombia/ 

As if they were administrators of legal companies, the Mexican drug traffickers participate directly in the cultivation of the coca leaf with the introduction of adapted seeds…Lieutenants sent to the South American country not only supervise the planting, but also coordinate the shipment that guarantees the quality of the drug exported via Central America and its passage through Mexico to the streets of the United States, where the product increases its value exponentially…Despite the limited planting area, they have also implemented strategies to increase the crop yields of plantations.

Image Information:

Image caption:  A coca plantation of the kind found on the Colombia-Venezuela border.
Source:  https://www.flickr.com/photos/ciat/4387014624
Attribution:  CC BY-SA 2.0

National Armed Strike in Colombia Demonstrates Strength of Gulf Clan

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The Colombian Police capture high-level figures in the Gulf Clan.

The Colombian Police capture high-level figures in the Gulf Clan.

“The illegal armed group carried out an armed strike between May 5 and May 9, 2022.  It is estimated that 24 homicides occurred, in addition to the incineration of nearly 200 vehicles to block roads.”

In November 2021, Colombian security forces arrested Dairo Antonio Úsuga, otherwise known as “Otoniel,” the leader of the Gulf Clan and the most wanted drug trafficker in the country.  Colombian President Iván Duque declared at the time that this was “the most important blow of this century against drug trafficking in Colombia” (see: “Colombia Celebrates the Arrest of Major Drug Trafficker ‘Otoniel’,” OE Watch, December 2021).  However, in early May, the Gulf Clan shut down wide swathes of northern Colombia, declaring an “armed strike,” according to Colombia’s leading weekly magazine Semana.  The strike, which lasted four days, was a direct response to the Colombian government’s decision to extradite Otoniel.  The government was slow to react, but eventually sent several thousand troops and police to intervene and lift the strike.  According to Colombia’s left-leaning daily El Espectador, the strike resulted in 24 homicides and hundreds of burned cars used to block highways.  It also exacerbated Colombia’s supply chain challenges.  Finally, the strike demonstrated the enduring power of cartels in Colombia and had an immediate ripple effect on Colombia’s presidential election.  Leftist presidential candidate, Gustavo Petro, blamed the security policies of past presidents, while the leading right-wing candidate, Fico Gutierrez, affirmed his support for the policy of extradition and a close security partnership with the United States.  Petro won the election, ushering a new era of what will likely be more limited cooperation with a formerly reliable U.S. partner in the region.

Source:

“Clan del Golfo: qué hubo detrás del paro armado? (Clan del Golfo: what was behind the armed strike?),” El Espectador (one of Colombia’s left-leaning daily newspapers), 12 May 2022.  https://www.elespectador.com/judicial/clan-del-golfo-que-hubo-detras-del-paro-armado/ 

The illegal armed group carried out an armed strike between May 5 and May 9, 2022.  It is estimated that 24 homicides occurred, in addition to the incineration of nearly 200 vehicles to block roads.  El Espectador spoke with several leaders of the affected areas and the general picture they gave us was that, despite the military deployment, the absence of the state was felt for five days.  Business was closed, people could not leave their homes, children could not go to school, threats to leaders were constant and they could not travel on the country’s highways.

Source:  “Terror en Antioquia: Clan del Golfo ha quemado 10 vehículos en medio de su ‘paro armado’ (Terror in Antioquia: Clan del Golfo has burned 10 vehicles in the midst of its ‘armed strike’),” Semana (Colombia’s leading weekly magazine), 5 May 2022.  https://www.semana.com/nacion/medellin/articulo/terror-en-antioquia-clan-del-golfo-ha-quemado-10-vehiculos-en-medio-de-su-paro-armado/202221/ 

Cargo and food transport vehicles have been incinerated, but there are also buses for the mobilization of people and even taxis.  Around 3,000 cargo operations have been stopped…In a pamphlet released by Gulf Clan, they assure that the ‘armed strike’ will be carried out for five days, during which time social, economic, educational and cultural activities will be entirely suspended.

Image Information:

Image caption:  The Colombian Police capture high-level figures in the Gulf Clan.
Source :  https://www.flickr.com/photos/policiacolombia/8616989338/in/photostream/
Attribution:  CC BY-SA 2.0