Yearly Archives: 2022

Taiwan’s “All-Out Defense” in Context of Aggressive PLA Exercise

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“..the structure of the manual was inspired by the examples of similar manuals used by Sweden, Japan and other countries, and integrates information from various government ministries, county and city governments, and experts and scholars.”

— Liu Taiyi [劉泰益], Director of the Material Mobilization Department of the All-Out Defense Mobilization Agency

Over the past year, Taiwan took several measures based on its “All-out Defense” strategy to improve its military readiness, including by integrating reserve forces and bolstering its ability to mobilize society. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command’s recent joint combat exercises, aggressively conducted near Taiwan, highlighted the urgency.

In late July, shortly before the PLA exercises began, Taiwan concluded its largest annual military exercise, known as Han Kuang [漢光]. Taiwanese media coverage described it as focusing on a combination of preserving combat power in the face of a simulated missile attack, and then counter attacking. Taiwan also reportedly dispatched naval forces east of the island. According to the article, Taiwan also dispersed mobile missile units across the island. Later components of the exercise involved simulated amphibious landings to retake occupied offshore islands.

In addition to the standing force, Taiwan maintains a large reserve component which is vital to the survival of the island if war broke out and a population that supports it all. In December of last year, a new agency, the All-Out Defense Mobilization Agency [全民防衛動員署] was established. In its 2021 Report on National Defense, the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense (MND) described the agency as intended to “integrate reserve and regular forces, combine reserve force with mobilization resources, and promote interagency cooperation, improving the strength of our reserve force in terms of its organization, force scale, career management, training, and equipping.”  In March, the MND adopted a new 14-day call-up system for reservists to improve skill retention for the force, and in April it issued a handbook for citizens modeled on those used by Sweden, Japan, and others. The handbook provides explanations of how to respond in a number of scenarios including air raids, power outages, earthquakes, as well as invasion. From Taiwan’s perspective, maintaining a credible deterrent will necessarily require a regime of training and doctrine for the standing force to prepare for combat operations with a quickly mobilized reserve component and supportive citizenry: an “All-out Defense.”

Sources:

“漢光38號演習登場 海陸空戰力防護保存台東亮相” (Hanguang No. 38 exercise debuts, sea, land and air combat power protection and preservation Taitung debut), CNA (Taiwanese state media), 25 July 2022. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202207250071.aspx

[Taiwan’s] Armed Forces’ 38th Han Guang military exercise deputed today. The main focus of the first day of the exercise was “protecting and preserving combat power.”

According to the military, the Taitung region air force will practice combat power preservation, while a second region will carry out a counterattack operation.  The Taitung Army regional command (Taiping Camp area) will send armored vehicles to Chihpen Beach to counterattack [against a landing].

This morning, bases on Western Taiwan simulated a missile strike.  The Air Force IDF Chingguo (FC-K1) and F-16V fighter jets sortied six times respectively. The fighter planes were loaded with weapons and landed at the Taitung Zhihang Base and entered the hardened air shelters to preserve their combat power.

Source 2:

Yu Kaixiang, “全民國防手冊範本出爐 教你如何在戰場生存”(The National Defense Handbook is a template to teach you how to survive on the battlefield), CNA (Taiwan State News Agency), 12 April 2022. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202204120102.aspx

The Ministry of National Defense announced today the ” Model National Defense Manual “, which provides emergency response information when the people face military crises and possible disasters. Other information included in the manual is intended to help people prepare for public safety emergencies. 

The Ministry of National Defense started compiling the “National Defense Manual” last year in order to strengthen the overall resilience of the population during wartime, and this morning held an online press conference to announce publication of the manual.

Liu Taiyi pointed out that the purpose of compiling the manual is to provide the public with relevant emergency response information when faced with military crises and possible disasters, so as to facilitate safety preparations and self-help for survival. For reference of the people of the age group, and design wartime scenario Q&A to guide into the live scene, separate the responsibilities of the central and local governments and the village head, and combine the actual situation of the region to allow the public to inquire about evacuation, medical care and material information.

According to Liu Taiyi, Director of the Material Mobilization Department of the All-Out Defense Mobilization Agency, the structure of the manual was inspired by the examples of similar manuals used by Sweden, Japan and other countries, and integrates information from various government ministries, county and city governments, and experts and scholars.

Source 3:

“全民國防手冊,” National Defense Handbook, Taiwan Ministry of Defense, 12 April 2022. https://www.mnd.gov.tw/NewUpload/202204/%E5%85%A8%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%89%8B%E5%86%8A(%E7%AF%84%E6%9C%AC)_534797.pdf

PLA Using Cognitive Domain Operations To Achieve Political Aims

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“[Cognitive domain operations] can… achieve the political purpose of “subduing soldiers without war” or “fight less but win all.”

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) newspaper PLA Daily recently published an article from the Academy of Military Science analyzing the concept of cognitive domain operations (CDO) in hybrid warfare.  As the Academy of Military Science is responsible for PLA doctrine, the article may provide insight into China’s doctrine on CDO.  The author proposes a new perspective of CDO in the hybrid domain.  The editor’s note prefacing the article explains that CDO is an extension of information operations, similar to how hybrid warfare is an extension of physical domain operations or traditional warfare. 

According to the article, militaries conduct CDO on three levels.  The first is “cognitive deterrence,” which entails deterring the enemy by demonstrating absolute military strength, paralyzing an enemy’s financial systems, conducting economic blockades, and imposing sanctions to deliver a psychological shock to the enemy.  The second is “cognitive shaping operations,” which entail altering the enemy’s values, political attitudes, religious beliefs, and mental state to conform to one’s objectives or cause confusion.  Finally, “cognitive deception” entails using public opinion propaganda, network attacks, and transmission of false information to influence the enemy’s decision-making in a desired direction.

The author posits that CDO can ultimately determine victory or defeat by seizing the initiative.  The author believes that CDO employing multiple means and methods—military, non-military, and specialized—can achieve decisive goals.  The author views CDO as part of the non-military methods to achieve maximum goals with minimum resources and risk.  The key components of CDO are continuous operations during peacetime and war, influencing the opponent’s cognition and disrupting its decision-making process.  The author views CDO as a full-spectrum offense and defense employing political, economic, military, diplomatic, public opinion, and other means in multiple domains during both peacetime and wartime.  While broader in scope, aspects of the PLA’s concept of cognitive warfare resemble the more focused Russian concept of reflexive control developed during the Soviet era.  Reflexive control seeks to insert targeted messaging into an opponent’s collection, analysis, and decision-making process to shape the enemy’s cognition and cause them to act in a desired manner.

Source:

“混合战争视野下的认知域作战 (Cognitive Domain Operations from the Perspective of Hybrid Warfare),” PLA Daily (newspaper of the People’s Liberation Army), 6 June 2022. http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-06/07/content_317171.htm

Through the practice of several local wars in recent years, it has been found that hybrid warfare can be regarded as an extension of traditional physical domain operations to a certain extent, while cognitive domain operations can be regarded as a further extension of previous information domain operations. In other words, both hybrid warfare and cognitive domain operations were born out of yesterday’s traditional warfare, and the two are closely related and have different emphases. How to grasp the new characteristics and new laws of cognitive domain operations from the perspective of hybrid warfare is a new perspective for advancing the research on cognitive domain operations.

“On the surface, current cognitive domain operations mainly act on people’s perception, feeling, emotion, morale, thinking, judgment, spirit, belief, and other areas. However, at the practical level, cognitive domain operations are often a full-scale attack and defense in the multi-dimensional field by using political, economic, military, diplomatic, public opinion, and other comprehensive means. If the physical domain operation is the premise and foundation to eliminate the enemy’s effective forces, and the information domain operation is the means and support to win victory in war, then the cognitive domain operation is the key to ultimately determine the victory or defeat of the war, force the enemy to yield, and achieve the war’s objective.

…Cognitive domain operations in the perspective of hybrid war start from the conscious level as the principal part of war to act directly on people’s will, belief, thinking, and psychology, etc., and [aim to] achieve the intended goals such as psychological attack, value shaping, cognitive influence, and mental control by maintaining one’s own cognitive advantages and attacking the enemy’s cognitive disadvantages.  Specifically, it can destroy the fighting will of the enemy’s officers and soldiers through cognitive attacks on them; Through the cognitive control of the enemy’s leadership, the purpose of influencing the decision-making and judgment of the enemy’s leaders can be achieved. Through the cognitive shaping of the enemy people, we can achieve the purpose of interfering with the enemy people’s recognition of the value of the country and the government, and finally achieve the political purpose of “subduing soldiers without war” or “fight less but win all”.

Cognitive domain warfare methods and means are mixed and diverse

Cognitive domain operations from the perspective of hybrid warfare, the multi-dimensionality of the space domain and the diversity of participating forces have spawned innovative improvements and enriched development of cognitive domain combat tactics.

In recent local wars, some foreign military combat methods and means in the cognitive domain have also shown a new trend of mixing and diversifying.

One is cognitive deterrence. By demonstrating absolute military strength, paralyzing the financial system, carrying out economic blockades, and imposing trade sanctions, the enemy is given psychological and spiritual shock and deterrence, so as to achieve the combat purpose of making the enemy cowardly, yield and retreat. Another example is to broadcast to the enemy a video of its advanced weapons and equipment accurately destroying the enemy’s important targets, causing it to have a psychological shadow, so as to actively give up resistance, etc.

The second is cognitive shaping operations. Through the induction and agitation of the enemy’s values, political attitudes, religious beliefs, mental states and other ideological fields, gradually make them abandon or form a new specific concept, cause value confusion, shake their will to fight, and thus affect their war. Attitude, etc.

The third is cognitive deception. Through public opinion propaganda, network attacks, thinking induction and other means, false information is transmitted to the enemy, thereby affecting its decision-making and judgment. For example, virtual reality and intelligent audio-visual synthesis technology are used to simulate the commander’s order, making it difficult to distinguish the true and false of the enemy, thereby causing confusion in the enemy’s command, disorder in actions, and failure of combat operations.”

PLA Combining Battlefield and Classroom Education To Develop Quality Officers

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PLA National Defense University Seal.

PLA National Defense University Seal.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is engaged in a long-term effort to reform military education and training.  As the accompanying articles from the official PLA Daily newspaper demonstrate, it seeks to combine the classroom and the battlefield to cultivate talent, as well as improve faculty and courses.  As the first accompanying article discusses, the Army Armored Force College conducted a graduation exercise in May at the Zhurihe Combined Arms Tactical Training Center.  The exercise entailed a student unit confronting the Blue Force Brigade from the training center.  The combined arms training included armor, infantry, artillery, army aviation, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare and provided the graduates with a realistic combat experience they could not gain in the classroom.  Students were exposed to problems of coordination of arms and support during operations.  The exercise also employed unmanned combat equipment.  According to the article, students began the training relying on what they had learned in the classroom but quickly realized the need for flexibility and innovation when executing operations.  Instructors assessed that the exercise provided a valuable experience compared to just book learning. 

As the second and third articles demonstrate, the PLA’s National Defense University (NDU) is also bringing the battlefield to the classroom.  A recent wargame lasted a month with hundreds of officers, students, instructors, and researchers participating.  The game employed innovations in traditional combat methods and the use of new type operational forces.  Officers from the Central Military Commission, theater commands, and military units have also lectured at NDU to provide expert experience and broaden the students’ knowledge.  Additionally, NDU arranged over 40 lectures by outside experts since March to broaden and enhance courses.

Collectively, these articles highlight important aspects of the PLA’s professional military education reforms to integrate the battlefield and active duty units into the classroom to provide realistic operational experience for students.  This includes military universities and colleges conducting field training and simulations to provide combat-related education, as well as recruiting active duty officers to teach classes in an effort to develop operationally oriented officers.

Image Information:

Image: PLA National Defense University Seal
Source: Wikimedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:National_Defence_University_Seal.png#/media/File:National_Defence_University_Seal.png

China To Reform Military Postgraduate Education

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“China is reshaping its military postgraduate system to make its armed forces “smarter,” including cultivating more technological talents…”

China’s Central Military Commission recently issued a document revealing that it will reshape military postgraduate education to make its armed forces “smarter.”  The new curriculum will include joint combat command, new type combat forces, high-level scientific and technological innovation, and high-level strategic management.  The accompanying article excerpts from Chinese sources provide some insight into this development.  China’s largest and most influential media source, Xinhua, reports that the document proposes creating a team of trainers with combat experience and improving standards to evaluate the quality of postgraduate education.  The document also emphasizes the importance of military postgraduate education in cultivating high-level military personnel, innovating military theory and national defense science and technology, and increasing combat effectiveness.  

South China Morning Post, Hong Kong’s most prominent online English daily, notes that the PLA expects the total number of students to remain steady.  However, the number of students enrolled in traditional military courses will decline while the number of students enrolled in new types of combat capability will increase.  Military recruitment will target students and graduates of science, engineering, and other skills necessary to prepare for war.  The article notes that the new emphasis on fostering military personnel with advanced technology backgrounds is part of China’s ongoing reforms intended to turn the People’s Liberation Army into a modern military force by 2027.  The article cites an earlier Xinhua report that said the enrollment of military postgraduates this year is intended to “closely meet the needs for war preparation and the development of new-type combat force talent.”

Source:

“中央军委办公厅印发《关于加快军队研究生教育改革发展的意见》(Opinions on Accelerating the Reform and Development of Military Postgraduate Education),” Xinhua (China’s largest and most influential media source), 23 May 2022. https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2022/05-23/9761542.shtml

The (document) focuses on training talent in joint combat command, new-type combat forces, high-level scientific and technological innovation, and high-level strategic management. It proposes reforms, such as strengthening the creation of a team of tutors who are knowledgeable in actual combat, and improving the standards of evaluating the quality of postgraduate education.

The (document) emphasizes (the idea) that military postgraduate education plays an important role in cultivating high-level military personnel, innovating military theory and national defense science and technology, and serving the combat effectiveness of the troops.

Source: Amber Wang, “China Pushes for Smarter Armed Forces with Education Shake Up On Path to Modern Military,” South China Morning Post (Hong Kong Chinese daily, once considered independent but now suspect of promoting China soft power abroad), 28 May 2022. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3179428/china-pushes-smarter-armed-forces-education-shake-path-modern;

Enrollment numbers would remain stable but would include more students of new types of combat and plans to train personnel in military intelligence and aerospace.

China is reshaping its military postgraduate system to make its armed forces “smarter,” including cultivating more technological talents, a newly issued document shows.

The new talent development plan, which focuses on fostering military personnel with advanced technology backgrounds and combat skills, is part of the massive ongoing reforms intended to turn the People’s Liberation Army into a modern military force by 2027.

An earlier Xinhua report said the plan for enrolling military postgraduates this year would “closely meet the needs for war preparation and the development of new-type combat force talent.”

Besides the postgraduate sector reform, the overall military recruitment this year will give priority to university students and graduates majoring in science and engineering, and those with the skills needed for war preparedness, according to a teleconference on conscription in January.

Iran Seeks To Counter Misinformation Circulating on Social Media

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Clip of a video circulating on Iranian social media in which Iranians misidentify German-born Greek-Iranian actor Vassilis Koukalani as a Revolutionary Guards officer.

Clip of a video circulating on Iranian social media in which Iranians misidentify German-born Greek-Iranian actor Vassilis Koukalani as a Revolutionary Guards officer.

“A clip entitled, ‘IRGC Commander having fun with women abroad’ was released.”

Iranians are avid consumers of social media.  However, the popular embrace of social media is a double-edged sword.  The excerpted article from government media outlet Fars News Agency highlights Iranian efforts to counter misinformation circulating on social media. 

Many Iranians, especially those who approach state-run television and news agencies with cynicism, get their news from social media. Telegram is popular.  While the Iranian government discourages use of Facebook and Twitter, even Iranian officials use such platforms.  During the 2018-19 unrest, security forces even circulated photos of protestors on Twitter to crowdsource their identification.  Specifically, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) denounce the legitimacy of two clips that Iranians said depicted the misbehavior and corruption of a senior IRGC officer, but actually show German-born, Greek-Iranian actor Vassilis Koukalani.

That Iranians so readily believed that Koukalani’s clips depicted IRGC corruption, however, reflects the cynicism with which ordinary Iranians view the institution and the hypocrisy that they expect from public figures.  While Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei seeks to imbue revolutionary values in the next generation, it appears that multi-million dollar corruption scandals and human trafficking rings involving clerics have eroded public trust more broadly. The Iranian public’s readiness to believe ‘fake news’ regarding their leaders could also become a security issue for the regime.  In 2001, an Iranian diaspora television channel broadcasting from California sparked nationwide riots when it claimed that Iranian authorities had ordered the national soccer team to throw an important World Cup qualifier to prevent men and women from celebrating together.  Ironically, the excerpted Fars News Agency article will only exacerbate the regime’s credibility problem as Iranians could interpret the failure to correct future questionable social media stories as tacit admission that other videos and clips are real.

Source:

“Dorough-e Digar Aliyeh Sepah (Another Lie against the Revolutionary Guards),” Fars News Agency (official media outlet close to Iran’s security forces), 7 May 2022. https://www.farsnews.ir/news/14010217000011

Another Lie against the Revolutionary Guards

Recently, a clip entitled “IRGC Commander having fun with women abroad” or “IRGC Commander and his daughter dancing and singing in the car” has been released. The clip identified the person in the clip as a Revolutionary Guards commander. 

But the fact is that the person in the clip is a German-born mixed heritage actor, and his photo in an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps uniform is related to his role in one of the Zionist, anti-Iranian films in which he has starred.

Image Information:

Image: Clip of a video circulating on Iranian social media in which Iranians misidentify German-born Greek-Iranian actor Vassilis Koukalani as a Revolutionary Guards officer.
Source: Fars News Agency
https://media.farsnews.ir/Uploaded/Files/Images/1401/02/17/14010217000003_Test_NewPhotoFree.jpg
Attribution: none

Iran Initiates and Defends New Bread Subsidies Amid Deteriorating Economy

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The Iranian government is seeking to clarify rumors surrounding bread price increases.

The Iranian government is seeking to clarify rumors surrounding bread price increases.

“The needy and low-income groups of the society can get the full advantage of these subsidies.”

Official Iranian media is trying to justify new domestic subsidies put in place to counter Iran’s worsening economy.  Iran is very sensitive to bread prices and like many other countries in the Middle East, is highly dependent on wheat and grain imports.  Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iranian officials had said that wheat imports were on the rise.  On 7 May, the head of Iran’s Flour Producers Association said that Iran needed to import 20 million tons of wheat and that its reliance on the foreign grain supply, especially Russia’s, had never been so great.  While the Iranian government blames the domestic grain production shortfall on drought, Iranians say a greater responsibility may be the result of corruption and watershed mismanagement as the economic wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps wins contracts to build unnecessary dams regardless of whether such diversions prevent water flow to agricultural land.

The excerpted article from Iranian new outlet Fars News Agency seeks to correct misinformation circulating online and explain new subsidy policies.  While Iranians worry that bread rations are on the horizon, the article suggests that new requirements equip the bakeries to accept bank debit cards.  These, in turn, will automatically apply government subsidy payments based on income level.  As suggested in the article, the government designed the scheme to counter illegal profiteering among bakeries. While Iranian subsidy schemes aim to ameliorate the risks of social unrest, their expense to government coffers often involves trade-offs.  Shifting funding to grain subsidies has led to a decrease of support for chicken feed that in turn has led to greater expense and scarcity of chicken and eggs.  The impact of this was apparent during Iranian Nowruz (New Year) festivities.  As households were unable to accommodate the hospitality toward guests traditional during the period, Iranians explained that many residents of Tehran and other major cities decided instead to travel to the countryside where they might be relieved of the expense of feeding guests.  Iranians recognize the erosion of Nowruz hospitality as an unwanted sacrifice that illustrates just how dire their economic situation has become.

Source:

“Az Shaye’ah ta Vaghe’yat Yaraneh-e Nan (Bread Subsidy Cards: From Rumor to Reality),” Fars News Agency (official media outlet closely associated with Iran’s military and security services), 7 May 2022. https://www.farsnews.ir/news/14010217000044

Bread Subsidy Cards: From Rumor to Reality

From rumor to reality: The 13th government [the Raisi administration] has undertaken what the Rouhani administration should have done years ago, and out on the agenda removal of 4,200 tomans [subsidy]. The government intends to implement key economy reforms for the sake of justice and to eliminate the profits of certain people. Government officials have said they are ready to sacrifice their own reputations for this. One of the important issues in this regard is price liberalization and the direct payment of bread subsidies to the people. In this regard, some people published a photoshopped and false images of a “bread subsidy card.” The Central Bank’s deputy for New Technologies said in this regard: “The infrastructure is designed so that people can claim their subsidy at the same time by using a card while buying basic goods. In this way, the purchase cost is deducted from both the individual subsidy and the bank account.” This will subsidize only the flour used by the people, not all the flour of the bakeries. There is no need for a new card as purchases are made with the current bankcard of individuals. The price and manner of buying bread does not change….

For other basic goods, a monthly amount is provided to compensate for the increase in prices. The higher income groups pay a part of the cost of providing these goods, but the needy and low-income groups of the society can get the full advantage of these subsidies….

Image Information:

Image: The Iranian government is seeking to clarify rumors surrounding bread price increases
Source: Jam-e Jam Online, https://jamejamonline.ir/files/fa/news/1401/2/16/599366_453.jpg
Attribution: none

Khamenei Speaks on Necessity of Palestinian “Resistance”

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Poster from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s webpage celebrating Palestinian “resistance” against Israel.

Poster from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s webpage celebrating Palestinian “resistance” against Israel.

“The Resistance fights against international terrorism.”

During his annual Qods Day speech, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on the necessity to support regional “resistance” against not only Israel but also the United States and its allies.  The Iranian government labels terrorist actions as “resistance” and in recent years, in addition to Palestinian “resistance,” other regional groups such as Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and the Yemeni Houthis have also taken center stage on Qods Day.  In his televised address, excerpted here from his official webpage, Khamenei.ir, Khamenei argues that most Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza, and Israel proper, i.e., “the 1948… lands,” support Palestinian attacks.  This directly contradicts core assumptions shaping Western policymaking, but suggests that Iran claims it has popular approval to support and sponsor attacks against Israel, such as the sharp increase in stabbing attacks in Israeli towns and cities in recent months within the 1949 armistice lines.  Khamenei also contextualized Iranian support for Palestinian “resistance” within the greater fight for control in Lebanon, the battle against the Islamic State in Syria, and the fight against Americans in Iraq.  Khamenei is claiming wide victory for Iranian policy, a fact that he will probably use to double down on further rejectionism of Israel and an active U.S. role in the Middle East in coming years.  Any hope that Western diplomacy might lead to a change in Iranian behavior seems doubtful so long as Khamenei remains at Iran’s helm.

Source:

“Sokhanrani Televisiyon beh Monisabat Roz-e Jihani Qods (Televised Speech on the Occasion of World Qods Day),” Khamenei.ir (Khamenei’s official website), 29 April 2022.

https://tinyurl.com/2p886dfu

Resistance has been the Most Blessed Phenomenon

Polls show that almost 70 percent of the Palestinians in the 1948 and 1967 lands and in the surrounding camps encourage the Palestinian leaders to carry out attacks on the Zionist regime. This is an important phenomenon because it signifies the complete preparedness of the Palestinians to confront the usurping regime and it provides the mujahid organizations with the freedom to take military action whenever they deem necessary.

The jihadi moves of the people of Palestine in the two northern and southern parts of the 1948 lands, and at the same time, the massive rallies in Jordan and Eastern Quds, the brave defense of the Al-Aqsa Mosque by Palestinian youth, and the military maneuvers in Gaza indicate that all of Palestine has turned into an arena of resistance. At present, the people of Palestine are unanimous about continuing this struggle on the path of God….

The formation of the Resistance in West Asia has been the most blessed phenomenon in this region in recent decades. It was the magnificence of the Resistance that was able to cleanse the occupied territories of Lebanon of the pollution of the Zionists, pull Iraq out from the clutches of the Americans, save Iraq from the maliciousness of the Islamic State, and assist Syrian defenders in the face of the U.S. schemes. The Resistance fights against international terrorism, helps the resistant people of Yemen in the war that has been imposed on them, wrestles with the Zionist usurpers in Palestine and will bring them to their knees with God’s grace….The Islamic Republic of Iran advocates and supports the camp of Resistance. It advocates and supports the Palestinian Resistance. We have always said this, we have always acted on this, and we have stood by it.

Image Information:

Image: Poster from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s webpage celebrating Palestinian “resistance” against Israel.
Source: Khamenei.ir
https://tinyurl.com/2p96j56z
Attribution: none

A Complex Link Between Coups and Jihadism in West Africa

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Colonels Ismaël Wagué and Malick Diaw of Mali’s ruling junta.

Colonels Ismaël Wagué and Malick Diaw of Mali’s ruling junta.

“Analysts say that while there is no mutually beneficial relationship between jihadist groups and coup plotters, there is a linkage between the increase of jihadism and the protracted insecurity across the region.”

The accompanying excerpted article from the non-profit scholarly publication The Conversation: Africa examines the possible connections between coups and the presence of Islamic terrorists in African states.  There have been three coups in West Africa’s Sahel Region in since 2021:  Chad, Mali, and Burkina Faso, as well as a fourth failed attempt in Guinea-Bissau.  The author found the link between coups and jihad to be complex, with jihadism not necessarily a direct precursor.

The author notes jihadism and coups are precipitated by similar factors such as poverty, inequality, unemployment, ignorance, political instability, and the inability of governments to meet these challenges.  These conditions serve as excellent recruiting tools for jihadist groups looking to increase their ranks with jobless, angry youth.  These conditions also encourage soldiers, sometimes with a disgruntled populace backing them, to overthrow a corrupt government that is unable to provide for its citizens.  Finally, the military is more likely to attempt a coup when the government appears unable to defeat terrorist organizations.  This was the case in Burkina Faso, where the military overthrew President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré in January 2022, after feeling their forces were not being adequately supplied to defeat the jihadists and becoming disenchanted as the number of casualties within their ranks grew. Coup leaders often adopt a very militaristic approach to defeating jihadists. Instead of attacking the root causes of discontent, such as high unemployment and lack of essential services, they implement forceful measures that tend to drive the poor into the arms of jihadist recruiters.  As such, their harsh measures lead to more jihadist recruits, leading to harsher crackdown measures, and so on.  Ultimately, the outcome of the coup-jihadism relationship becomes increased instability.  Meanwhile, the African Union and Western nations, see their efforts at democratization and counterterrorism in the Sahel undermined.

Source:

Folahanmi Aina, “Jihadism and coups in West Africa’s Sahel region: a complex relationship,” The Conversation: Africa (non-profit scholarly publication), 17 February 2022. https://theconversation.com/jihadism-and-coups-in-west-africas-sahel-region-a-complex-relationship-176988

Most of these groups are affiliated with global jihadist groups such Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.

This has led to repeated tensions in relations between the state and society, which the jihadist groups have exploited in intensifying their recruitment drive.

On the other hand, the activities of these jihadist groups have also mounted additional pressure on the fragile democratic systems across the region.

This encourages state capture by the military, who see themselves as “guardians of the state” and the “last hope” of the common citizen.

The continued emergence of coups is likely to be capitalised upon by jihadists as reflecting efforts which are finally yielding desired results – the forced displacement of democratic systems of government. The jihadists could use this as a tactic to get more fighters to join them.The military juntas now in power must urgently seek to establish mutuality with the societies they now rule. It’s a tall order, given that they don’t prioritise the relationship between state and society. Doing so would require giving voice to the concerns and grievances of citizens they rule over.

Image Information:

Image: Colonels Ismaël Wagué and Malick Diaw of Mali’s ruling junta.
Source: Kassim Traoré /VOA/Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Comit%C3%A9_national_pour_le_salut_du_Peuple_-_2020_Malian_coup_d%27Etat_2.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain

Russian Media Source Blames United States for Russian “Brain Drain”

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“Will the United States be able to weaken Russia by poaching its best specialists?”

An increasing number of Russians, often among the country’s best and brightest, have emigrated in recent years as the Kremlin’s domestic policies have become more repressive.  These self-exiled Russians believe they can better realize their potential in countries with a more transparent political system, better legal guarantees, and greater opportunities to exercise personal freedom.  This “brain drain” has become an even more acute problem for the Kremlin since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  According to the opposition media source Meduza, nearly 150,000 peoplehave emigrated from Russia since 24 February.  Rather than examining the domestic reasons for leaving Russia, some pro-Kremlin media blame the United States for this exodus.  Citing a recent Chinese article, the second excerpt from the semi-independentsite Nezavisimaya Gazeta claims that the United States has “created a brain drain trend using it as a tool to weaken Russia.”  According to the author, “Washington is trying to facilitate the transfer to the United States of the best Russian specialists with experience in semiconductors, space technology, cybersecurity, nuclear engineering, artificial intelligence, and other specialized scientific fields.”  Given this trend, the Kremlin may soon develop policies to restrict its most qualified citizens from leaving Russia.

Sources:

Kristina Safonova, “Сколько людей уехало из России из-за войны? (How many people left Russia because of the war?),” Meduza (opposition news source), 7 May 2022. https://meduza.io/feature/2022/05/07/skolko-lyudey-uehalo-iz-rossii-iz-za-voyny-oni-uzhe-nikogda-ne-vernutsya-mozhno-li-eto-schitat-ocherednoy-volnoy-emigratsii

Is it possible to estimate how many people left Russia after February 24?

Julia Florinskaya: I don’t have any estimates – neither accurate nor inaccurate. It’s more of an order of numbers. My order of numbers is about 150 thousand people.

Source: Tatyana Popova, “Организация «утечки мозгов» как новое глобальное оружие США (Organization of brain drain as a new global weapon of the United States),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (semi-independent), 5 May 2022. https://www.ng.ru/world/2022-05-05/100_usa050522.html

Will the United States be able to weaken Russia by poaching its best specialists?

The United States of America intends to prevent the development of high technologies in Russia and in parallel to improve its economy, using special tactics, say the authors of the Chinese daily newspaper Global Times. …Washington is trying to facilitate the transfer to the United States of the best Russian specialists with experience in semiconductors, space technology, cybersecurity, nuclear engineering, artificial intelligence, space technology and other specialized scientific fields…. …According to the newspaper, the statement that the United States “wants to see Russia weakened” reveals the true intentions of the United States…. The US creates a brain drain trend using it as a tool to weaken Russia. The consequences of the mass exodus of specialists (scientists and engineers) from the country are obvious – this process undermines the foundation of national economic and military development. …However, it is clear that the US is determined to weaken Russia.

Russian WWII Veteran Benefits Lag Behind Those in Central Asia

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“It is noteworthy that one-time payments to Russian veterans are many times less than similar assistance to their fellow soldiers living in the Asian republics of the former USSR….”

As the brief excerpted article in the semi-independent Nezavisimaya Gazeta indicates, Kremlin rhetoric regarding the debt owed to World War II (WWII) veterans far outweighs the reality of the low pay they receive.  Russia’s annual Victory Day commemoration on 9 May has become the apotheosis and driving force behind current Kremlin ideology.  The Soviet Union’s triumph over Nazi Germany in the what the Russian’s know as the “Great Patriotic War” now serves as the bellicose prism through which the Kremlin view themselves and the world.  Just as the Soviet Union saved the world from fascism in the early 1940s, so today, according to Kremlin propaganda, brave Russian soldiers are fighting Nazism in Ukraine.  Given the central importance of this holiday and the current conflict, one might assume that the Kremlin would understand the importance of demonstrating its gratitude to those few surviving Russian veterans.  However, the article showed an unflattering comparison between the annual benefits provided to surviving WWII veterans in Russia and four Central Asian countries: Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.  For instance, in 2022, “10 thousand rubles [$154] were transferred to the 20,320 [remaining WWII] veterans in the Russian Federation.”  Although the Central Asian economies are much smaller than Russia’s, they provided a significantly larger veteran benefit.  Uzbekistan provided $1,339; Kyrgyzstan paid $1,209; Kazakhstan paid $2,400; and Tajikistan provided $234 to its veterans.  Given the Kremlin’s increasingly heavy-handed regulation of Russia’s media environment, this issue bears further monitoring to see if it gains traction among the Russian public and may provide some opening to combat the Kremlin’s domestic misinformation campaign.

Source:

Mikhail Sergeev, “Участники ВОВ в России получат в 9 раз меньше, чем в Узбекистане и Киргизии (Participants of the Second World War in Russia will receive 9 times less than in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (semi-independent), 4 May 2022. https://www.ng.ru/economics/2022-05-04/100_e04052022_1.html

Comparison of veterans’ payments for Victory Day…On the anniversary of the Victory, participants in the Great Patriotic War living in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Lugansk People’s Republic and the liberated territories of Ukraine will receive a one-time payment of 10,000 Russian rubles by decree of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The same amount will be received by veterans living in the territory of the Russian Federation. Annual payments for Victory Day in the amount of 10 thousand rubles were transferred to 20,320 veterans in the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Labor reported…

It is noteworthy that one-time payments to Russian veterans are many times less than similar assistance to their fellow soldiers living in the Asian republics of the former USSR…. In Uzbekistan, for example, war veterans, concentration camp prisoners and Leningrad blockade survivors will each receive 15 million soums (equivalent to 1,339 US dollars or more than 93,000 Russian rubles)…. In Kyrgyzstan, the veterans’ payment for Victory Day will amount to 100,000 soms ($1,209 or almost 85,000 Russian rubles)…. 

In Kazakhstan, the size of veterans’ payments for Victory Day varies depending on the region of residence and the special status of the recipient. Thus, veterans of the Great Patriotic War living in Nur-Sultan and Almaty will receive 1 million tenge (156 thousand Russian rubles) each, and in Aktobe – 2 million tenge (312 thousand Russian rubles).So the difference in the amount of veterans’ payments even increased this year. Last year, NG wrote that “soldiers living in Kazakhstan will receive 17 times more than their Russian fellow soldiers.” And today you can name another difference – 31 times more than in the Russian Federation….